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Showing content with the highest reputation since 07/16/2014 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    Over the last few years, the US has dramatically improved it's junior world success. I looked at the last 10 years to try and understand how we can use this larger data set to help predict future college success. There is way more you can do with this data. I kind of wish I was still in college so I could spend way more time on this, but I still think this info is interesting. I'm specifically looking at Men's Freestyle. Facts From 2009-2018, there have been 27 junior world medalists, including 5 who have at least 2 medals. I'm removing Pico from the rest of this as he gave up his college eligibility without wrestling, so I'll be using the 26 number for the rest of this. The USA has won 9 golds from 7 wrestlers (Mark Hall (2x), Spencer Lee (2x), Mekhi Lewis, Daton Fix, Gable Steveson, Kyle Snyder, Dom Bradley) Only 1 of the gold medalists who has competed in college hasn't won an NCAA title (Dom Bradley). That included Hall and Lee, both of whom won titles as true freshman. Medalists with completed eligibility average 2.8 AAs over the course of their career. That means that a medalist is more likely to AA than not in any given year. 20 junior world medalists have competed at least 1 year in college. Only 3 haven't AAd and only 1 is out of eligibility (Butler). 13 of the 26 medalists have used up their NCAA eligibility and 12 AAd at least once. That suggests that junior world medalists have a 92% chance of AAing Only 1 of those 12 out of eligibility AAers AAd once (Pat Downey), wihch suggests junior world medalists have an 85% chance of AAing at least twice. 11 of the 22 wrestlers who have competed in college at least for 1 year were finalists. 9 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least 3 times! (69%) 10 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least twice Ryan Deakin and Mitch McKee are at risk of throwing off these numbers, as they are both junior world medalists (and finalist) who haven't AAd. Each still has eligibility, so it is likely they AA. 7 out of 12 guys without eligibility remaining won an NCAA title. This suggests that 58% of medalists will win a title. What is even crazier is if we include those still with eligibility (excluding those that haven't competed yet), 50% have won an NCAA title! The guys added here include Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall and Spencer Lee. 6 out of those 12 won multiple titles! There are all kinds of interesting extrapolations that can be made from the data, but it is pretty clear that being a junior world medalist means it is highly likely you will AA multiple times and you have about a 50/50 chance of winning more than 1 title. For a gold medalist, the likelihood of winning a national title is 75%. If we take this way too far... Gable Steveson, Mekhi Lewis and Daton Fix each have a 75% of winning a national title at some point Both Mitch McKee and Ryan Deakin are very likely to AA Joey McKenna has at least a 69% likelihood of AAing this year (although if we account for it being his senior year, nobody who has AAd previously and won a junior world medal didn't AA their senior year, so 100%) Micic is extremely likely to AA and likely to win a title in the next two seasons Aaron Brooks, Zach Elam and Brady Berge have a 76% chance to AA at least twice and a 58% chance of winning a national title. Mark Hall, Zahid Valencia and Spencer Lee are likely to win at least 1 more title I can't wait for the season to start
  2. 9 points

    Another Wrestler in Congress

    Hopefully this one doesn't embarrass the wrestling community like the last few.
  3. 9 points

    Maroulis gets smashed.

    That is hard to watch. Helen is a Champion and always will be a champion. Whatever she decides, nothing changes. Still a Champion.
  4. 9 points

    Sadulaev by pin little over a minute

    Snyder needs to know I got pinned too. Many times. And look at me now. It will be okay.
  5. 8 points


    I don't know how he can feel so under the radar, but with our current loaded team, he still does somehow. Yet with just one more medal of any type, J'Den Cox will be a top 10 all-time guy for us. I think he gets lost in the shuffle because of his NCAA career being juxtaposed with Snyder and just after favorite son Dake and favorite son Taylor. And his ascension to national team-er felt like Goliath vs. Dake and Goliath vs. Taylor where he was the afterthought in "expected" results. And now his freestyle accomplishments are happening in the shadow of Burroughs, Snyder, and again Dake and Taylor. But suddenly you look up and it's J'Den Cox, all-time great. Awesome wrestler, awesome talent...and seemingly awesome guy. Much, much respect.
  6. 8 points
    It was amazing worlds! Yes i like greco more than fs. I wait for greco worlds. But fs was more interesting than many boxing/mma events! Amazing soviet Taylor and Dake, upset by Bonne, last seconds by Gazi, Agkgul losses, Surprise from Japan at 65, pulled singlets, tears, Ohio sad day etc!. All of this was in this words! thanks for the support! Together - we are force! Fight and Olympics forever!
  7. 8 points

    Taylor wins

    I could not be more impressed with Taylor in this tournament. He is not dominating, but he is wrestling through really tough positions, making small adjustments on the spot, and competing with conviction, determination, and self-confidence. Beautiful tournament.
  8. 7 points
    Badger Fan


    At the first home dual meet of the season, the Wisconsin Badgers unveiled a word printed front and center on the wrestling mat - bELIeve. The letters ELI are capitalized for Eli Stickley, the Badger wrestler who tragically passed away this past summer. After the unveiling, there was a moment of silence in honor of Eli. It was the greatest tribute to a person I have ever seen in my entire life.
  9. 7 points

    Russian Revolution

    JhRose, I don’t think it’s that simple. I agree with a bunch of what you say but there’s something about culture and spartan training conditions that bring out the best in some athletes. There’s a very interesting book named The Talent Code that discusses cultural and geographic hotbeds of talent in various sports—soccer (Brazilian ghettos), LPGA golf champions (Soruh Korea), etc.—and makes the argument that it’s not just practice and talent, but other factors not often studied such as “ignition” (identifying deeply with a certain elite group or role model) also matter a lot. Whether you agree with the book and it’s research or not, it’s impossible to ignore how fabulously productive a very small percentage of the Russian population that lives in abject poverty has been in wrestling. I highly doubt we’re drawing from a weaker genetic pool even after we lose a ton of talent to football and the more popular sports.
  10. 7 points

    Day 2 Thread

    Stud! Hopefully the Living the Dream Fund will cover Lasik surgery
  11. 7 points

    Day 2 Thread

    Honestly, it started when I first covered the World Championships in 2003 in NYC. I've been around it since then. My first non-U.S. worlds was in 2007, then haven't missed a World or Olympics since 2009. I've been on a broadcast/announcing role every year since 2013, so it's years of of piling this stuff up, understanding naming conventions. I've kept a massive announcing sheet Google Doc that I've shared with Ken Berger, Bryan Hazard and other announcers and it's just familiarity and practice. I don't nail everything, but I do spend heavy time between when I get the entry list and the start of the event hammering out the details of the athletes.
  12. 6 points
    This is a bad take on nearly all fronts. The only thing I would partially agree with is the seeding still needs work, which UWW has agreed with. 1) The reffing was fine 2) The rules are fine 3) Snyder was not "fearful" before the match. He just got beat. I would have like to see how good Sad's conditioning was having to deal with Snyder's pressure, but we didn't get to see that 4) If Dake comes down next year, I'm picking JB. He still has all the tools he needs to be the best P4P in the world 5) JB's performance was outstanding. He gave up a late takedown to the champ in a very winnable match. My only issue with his performance (and this is nitpicky), he played it a little close to the vest the whole tournament. He did the same thing last year and nobody cared because he won. If he had beat Sidakov and won gold, everyone would be fine with him.