Over the last few years, the US has dramatically improved it's junior world success. I looked at the last 10 years to try and understand how we can use this larger data set to help predict future college success.
There is way more you can do with this data. I kind of wish I was still in college so I could spend way more time on this, but I still think this info is interesting. I'm specifically looking at Men's Freestyle.
From 2009-2018, there have been 27 junior world medalists, including 5 who have at least 2 medals. I'm removing Pico from the rest of this as he gave up his college eligibility without wrestling, so I'll be using the 26 number for the rest of this.
The USA has won 9 golds from 7 wrestlers (Mark Hall (2x), Spencer Lee (2x), Mekhi Lewis, Daton Fix, Gable Steveson, Kyle Snyder, Dom Bradley)
Only 1 of the gold medalists who has competed in college hasn't won an NCAA title (Dom Bradley). That included Hall and Lee, both of whom won titles as true freshman.
Medalists with completed eligibility average 2.8 AAs over the course of their career. That means that a medalist is more likely to AA than not in any given year.
20 junior world medalists have competed at least 1 year in college. Only 3 haven't AAd and only 1 is out of eligibility (Butler).
13 of the 26 medalists have used up their NCAA eligibility and 12 AAd at least once. That suggests that junior world medalists have a 92% chance of AAing
Only 1 of those 12 out of eligibility AAers AAd once (Pat Downey), wihch suggests junior world medalists have an 85% chance of AAing at least twice.
11 of the 22 wrestlers who have competed in college at least for 1 year were finalists.
9 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least 3 times! (69%)
10 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least twice
Ryan Deakin and Mitch McKee are at risk of throwing off these numbers, as they are both junior world medalists (and finalist) who haven't AAd. Each still has eligibility, so it is likely they AA.
7 out of 12 guys without eligibility remaining won an NCAA title. This suggests that 58% of medalists will win a title. What is even crazier is if we include those still with eligibility (excluding those that haven't competed yet), 50% have won an NCAA title! The guys added here include Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall and Spencer Lee.
6 out of those 12 won multiple titles!
There are all kinds of interesting extrapolations that can be made from the data, but it is pretty clear that being a junior world medalist means it is highly likely you will AA multiple times and you have about a 50/50 chance of winning more than 1 title. For a gold medalist, the likelihood of winning a national title is 75%.
If we take this way too far...
Gable Steveson, Mekhi Lewis and Daton Fix each have a 75% of winning a national title at some point
Both Mitch McKee and Ryan Deakin are very likely to AA
Joey McKenna has at least a 69% likelihood of AAing this year (although if we account for it being his senior year, nobody who has AAd previously and won a junior world medal didn't AA their senior year, so 100%)
Micic is extremely likely to AA and likely to win a title in the next two seasons
Aaron Brooks, Zach Elam and Brady Berge have a 76% chance to AA at least twice and a 58% chance of winning a national title.
Mark Hall, Zahid Valencia and Spencer Lee are likely to win at least 1 more title
I can't wait for the season to start