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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/17/2017 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    Over the last few years, the US has dramatically improved it's junior world success. I looked at the last 10 years to try and understand how we can use this larger data set to help predict future college success. There is way more you can do with this data. I kind of wish I was still in college so I could spend way more time on this, but I still think this info is interesting. I'm specifically looking at Men's Freestyle. Facts From 2009-2018, there have been 27 junior world medalists, including 5 who have at least 2 medals. I'm removing Pico from the rest of this as he gave up his college eligibility without wrestling, so I'll be using the 26 number for the rest of this. The USA has won 9 golds from 7 wrestlers (Mark Hall (2x), Spencer Lee (2x), Mekhi Lewis, Daton Fix, Gable Steveson, Kyle Snyder, Dom Bradley) Only 1 of the gold medalists who has competed in college hasn't won an NCAA title (Dom Bradley). That included Hall and Lee, both of whom won titles as true freshman. Medalists with completed eligibility average 2.8 AAs over the course of their career. That means that a medalist is more likely to AA than not in any given year. 20 junior world medalists have competed at least 1 year in college. Only 3 haven't AAd and only 1 is out of eligibility (Butler). 13 of the 26 medalists have used up their NCAA eligibility and 12 AAd at least once. That suggests that junior world medalists have a 92% chance of AAing Only 1 of those 12 out of eligibility AAers AAd once (Pat Downey), wihch suggests junior world medalists have an 85% chance of AAing at least twice. 11 of the 22 wrestlers who have competed in college at least for 1 year were finalists. 9 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least 3 times! (69%) 10 of the 13 guys without eligibility left AAd at least twice Ryan Deakin and Mitch McKee are at risk of throwing off these numbers, as they are both junior world medalists (and finalist) who haven't AAd. Each still has eligibility, so it is likely they AA. 7 out of 12 guys without eligibility remaining won an NCAA title. This suggests that 58% of medalists will win a title. What is even crazier is if we include those still with eligibility (excluding those that haven't competed yet), 50% have won an NCAA title! The guys added here include Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall and Spencer Lee. 6 out of those 12 won multiple titles! There are all kinds of interesting extrapolations that can be made from the data, but it is pretty clear that being a junior world medalist means it is highly likely you will AA multiple times and you have about a 50/50 chance of winning more than 1 title. For a gold medalist, the likelihood of winning a national title is 75%. If we take this way too far... Gable Steveson, Mekhi Lewis and Daton Fix each have a 75% of winning a national title at some point Both Mitch McKee and Ryan Deakin are very likely to AA Joey McKenna has at least a 69% likelihood of AAing this year (although if we account for it being his senior year, nobody who has AAd previously and won a junior world medal didn't AA their senior year, so 100%) Micic is extremely likely to AA and likely to win a title in the next two seasons Aaron Brooks, Zach Elam and Brady Berge have a 76% chance to AA at least twice and a 58% chance of winning a national title. Mark Hall, Zahid Valencia and Spencer Lee are likely to win at least 1 more title I can't wait for the season to start
  2. 9 points

    Sadulaev by pin little over a minute

    Snyder needs to know I got pinned too. Many times. And look at me now. It will be okay.
  3. 8 points
    It was amazing worlds! Yes i like greco more than fs. I wait for greco worlds. But fs was more interesting than many boxing/mma events! Amazing soviet Taylor and Dake, upset by Bonne, last seconds by Gazi, Agkgul losses, Surprise from Japan at 65, pulled singlets, tears, Ohio sad day etc!. All of this was in this words! thanks for the support! Together - we are force! Fight and Olympics forever!
  4. 8 points

    Taylor wins

    I could not be more impressed with Taylor in this tournament. He is not dominating, but he is wrestling through really tough positions, making small adjustments on the spot, and competing with conviction, determination, and self-confidence. Beautiful tournament.
  5. 7 points

    Day 2 Thread

    Stud! Hopefully the Living the Dream Fund will cover Lasik surgery
  6. 7 points

    Day 2 Thread

    Honestly, it started when I first covered the World Championships in 2003 in NYC. I've been around it since then. My first non-U.S. worlds was in 2007, then haven't missed a World or Olympics since 2009. I've been on a broadcast/announcing role every year since 2013, so it's years of of piling this stuff up, understanding naming conventions. I've kept a massive announcing sheet Google Doc that I've shared with Ken Berger, Bryan Hazard and other announcers and it's just familiarity and practice. I don't nail everything, but I do spend heavy time between when I get the entry list and the start of the event hammering out the details of the athletes.
  7. 6 points
    As an American wrestling fan, it would be nice if I could dislike our main rival but nothing but respect for Sad and the way he goes about everything. Classy guy and just a joy to watch on the mat, every time.
  8. 6 points
    El lucador

    congratulate me!

    It's not official until the drug tests come in.
  9. 6 points
    The Genius

    Worlds Day 3 Thread

    I think you just answered your own question
  10. 6 points

    Day 2 Thread

  11. 6 points

    Validative experiences

    I went to the 2006 Big Ten Wrestling Championships at Indiana, not only because I was joining a friend at Big Tens, but because a guy wrestling for Ohio State, who I had known from my gym, was trying to make it to Nationals. In a crucial match, he had it locked up, and then he got taken down in the last few seconds. He lost the next match, too, and he never went to Nationals After his near miss, I was working out in the gym at the hotel where I was staying in Indiana. It was a very small gym. Only enough room for two stationary bikes, two treads and a few free weights. The only other guy in that room was a guy in a hooded shirt on a stationary bike and me on a tread. I looked closer. It was Dan Gable. I got off of my treadmill and said hello. He asked me if I had a kid wrestling, and I replied that I was following a young Ohio State man from my gym who had just lost. He asked his name, and I told him. Gable said, "Hell of a double-leg." After that, I got back on the tread and absolutely killed myself to run hard in that hot room. After all, Gable was the only other person in the room. I was walking in the main area about an hour later, and I told my wrestling buddy about the Gable story. When asked about how hard I worked, I said "I did the best I could." Gable walked by the same time and said, "You did well." This is all true, and it ranks near the top of my validative experiences. Anyone else?
  12. 6 points

    Where is Abdullahgadzhi Khuzin?

    Where ISN'T Khuzin??? He is omnipresent, omniscient, and omnipotent. He is Khuzin!!!
  13. 6 points
    steamboat_charlie v2

    Suriano interview s

    It seems to me that Mr. Suriano is too much about ME and not enough about WE. Maybe if he focused a little more on his team instead of filming documentaries about his work ethic, Rutgers would do something other than woefully underachieve... just kidding, sort of. Seriously though at a minimum it appears this dude is operating in a bit of an echo chamber. He was hurt, we get it, mind over matter... that's all good and well, but when you do these sort of interviews, like "look how much will power I have, and I can overcome anything, and I was so hurt but it didn't matter because I'm such a tough guy," it just comes off as incredibly lame. I'm sure he's a nice enough kid, but we all need someone keeping us in check.
  14. 5 points
    Greatest American team ever? All 10 are officially world-level medalists now. 10 world-level medalists 6 world-level champs 5 multiple-time medalists 8 of 10 are multiple-time medalists and/or world-level champs!! (would have been 9 with Gilman)
  15. 5 points

    Worlds Day 3 Thread

    BALD J'DEN IS THE BEST J'DEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  16. 5 points

    Worlds Day 3 Thread

    Cox WORLD CHAMP!!!!!!
  17. 5 points

    Worlds Day 3 Thread

  18. 5 points

    More Jordans

    The jordan's decided to just breed their own program....its not very time efficient but at least you don't have to deal with parents.
  19. 5 points

    Portion of posts

    I think this is a great post. But I think you're totally wrong on the numbers. It's 19, 62, 19 And I think if Cornell was better at wrestling you'd be better at posting dumb numbers posts.
  20. 5 points

    Validative experiences

    In the late 70's early 80's, most youth wrestling opportunities were in freestyle where I lived (Mn). We did have a limited Middle School wrestling season where we typically wrestled 10-12 matches in a season. I think it was 6th or 7th grade and our freestyle club went to a folkstyle tournament in Emmetsburg, IA. That was the first tournament I ever attended that seeded wrestlers. I was like 12-0 or something and was expecting to get seeded first. However, a team of Oklahoma studs, the Tulsa All-Stars or something, came and their kids were sporting records like 46-1 or whatever. I was seeded something like 5th or 6th I think. I got destroyed in the semis and took 4th, I believe. A couple years later at Cyclone Wrestling Camp a kid comes up to me and was like, "I know you. We wrestled in Emmetsburg." He said he had the picture on his wall because he won, and I was on the stand. He said I was the toughest match he had that whole year. We rolled that whole week at camp; he was much better than me and I learned a lot from him. That kid's name was Kendall Cross. Fast-forward to 1992, on a whim while serving in the Marines in Italy, I went to the Olympics in Barcelona. I had acquired some free tickets to the wrestling. Lo and behold, who did I see but Kendall Cross. Later that week, I ran into Kendall and some of the other wrestlers at a drinking establishment off Las Ramblas and introduced myself. Whether he did or didn't remember me, he was gracious enough to pretend he did, and we hung out well into the morning hours, thoroughly dehydrating ourselves in the process. Still have my ticket autographed by Cross, Coleman, Jackson, and some others lying around a scrapbook somewhere.
  21. 5 points
    Good Miron Story: In '92, he was fascinated by the idea of the presidential election debates. He was still learning English but was picking things up quickly; he took an English-Russian dictionary with him everywhere he went and he was learning fast. He watched the first debate between Clinton and Bush intently, taking in as much as he could, asking a lot of questions. "John, what happens next," he asked me when it was over. "Well," I said, "they'll see how they did on this debate and get ready for the next one." "No," he said, digging deep. "What will happen tomorrow?" "Tomorrow?" I asked, a bit puzzled. "Yes, tomorrow, will Bush's army attack Clinton's army? Clinton was very disrespectful. Bush is still president." I realized then what a different world he was coming from. He was almost in disbelief when I told him that there were no armies, no armed forces would attack anyone, they would just get ready for the next debate. Keep in mind he is from Abkhazia, which had declared independence from Georgia, which not long before had declared independence when the USSR split up. Abkhazia and Georgia fought a bloody, horrible war in which his father and other relatives were killed. It was very sobering to see the world through his eyes. Many, many stories like that over the years. He taught me much more than wrestling.
  22. 5 points

    Streaming options for worlds

    http://www.trackwrestling.com/tw/PortalPost.jsp?postId=723660132&TIM=1536777838857 Track is kicking back to the Living the Dream Medal Fund for everyone that purchases the stream and uses the code WINUSA- so be sure to do that...
  23. 5 points
    I didn't design this to be public facing, so it isn't the best format to display it, but sure. The year listed is the most recent year that they competed. The other medal columns are medals from previous years. Name Year Medal Medal Medal AA Champion Eligibility Left Mekhi Lewis 2018 Gold No No NA NA 4 Aaron Brooks 2018 Silver No No NA NA 4 Zach Elam 2018 Silver No No NA NA 4 Daton Fix 2018 Bronze Gold Bronze NA NA 4 Brady Berge 2018 Bronze No No NA NA 4 Mitch Mckee 2017 Silver No No 0 0 2 Ryan Deakin 2017 Silver No No 0 0 3 Mark Hall 2017 Gold Gold No 2 1 2 Zahid Valencia 2017 Silver No No 2 1 2 Kollin Moore 2017 Bronze No No 2 0 2 Gable Steveson 2017 Gold No No NA NA 4 Spencer Lee 2016 Gold Gold No 1 1 3 Stephan Micic 2015 Bronze No No 2 0 2 Aaron Pico 2015 Bronze Silver No NA NA 0 Nathan Butler 2015 Bronze No No 0 0 0 Thomas Gilman 2014 Bronze No No 3 0 0 Joey McKenna 2014 Silver No No 2 0 1 Gabe Dean 2014 Bronze No No 4 2 0 Kyle Snyder 2014 Bronze Gold No 4 3 0 Adam Coon 2014 Bronze No No 3 0 0 Alex Ringer 2013 Silver No No 4 3 0 Pat Downey 2012 Silver No No 1 0 0 Logan Steiber 2011 Silver No No 4 4 0 Chris Perry 2010 Bronze No No 3 2 0 Dom Bradley 2009 Gold No No 2 0 0 Jordan Oliver 2009 Bronze No No 4 2 0 Andrew Howe 2009 Bronze No No 4 1 0
  24. 5 points

    Chavez out, Perkins in

    It was an eye injury: he just couldn't see making 72kg.
  25. 5 points

    Favorite team moments/performances

    At nationals, Ben Askren walking right past Brands after 7 minutes of chasing the Iowa wrestler and hitting Brands with a stalling call.