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Everything posted by JHRoseWrestling

  1. JHRoseWrestling

    Iowa vs OK State Predictions

    Just because Smith is not yet eligible to compete at 165 does not mean he could not be asked to make scratch for a wrestleoff in advance of that date by the coaches. Actually, if a wrestler is making a significant drop this close to postseason, good coaching may suggest the athlete make a simulation cut on a handful of occasions to acclimate to the new weight before the debut.
  2. JHRoseWrestling

    Bey with a right hook

    Looks like Sunkist Greco HC James Johnson and National Greco HC Matt Lindland.
  3. JHRoseWrestling

    you make finals - and don't wrestle?

    I said I wouldn't go down the hypothetical rabbit hole, but since this is a specific question. An injury to one of the athletes that he could compete with, but could also be made worse in a live match. Back to my earlier post, there are a multitude of acceptable answers to this question (from my vantage point).
  4. JHRoseWrestling

    you make finals - and don't wrestle?

    Isn't that the role of a coach, to make decisions in the best interest of his athletes, regardless of if he loses the respect of uninformed observers? There are so many reasons why it could have been the right call it's not even worth going down the rabbit hole of speculation and hypotheticals. Coach Smith has earned his stripes, I will choose to give the benefit of the doubt it was the right call, whatever the reasoning. I turned in for this match as I was interested as well, and shared your disappointment when it didn't happen. It isn't incumbent on the staff to play out a wrestleoff in the Reno finals, and they earned the latitude of that decision by placing two wrestlers in the championship match. I've gone on long enough, but the outrage here is a little over the top in reaction to a minor disappointment.
  5. JHRoseWrestling


    Non Olympic Weight World titles throw things off.
  6. JHRoseWrestling

    Russian Revolution

    It is useful analysis when juxtaposed against the discussion point that there are regions of the world where this happens.
  7. JHRoseWrestling

    Russian Revolution

    Your evidence doesn't correlate with my point. You are talking in micro terms, I am talking in macro terms. Since you are comfortable talking in absolutes... If wrestling attracted all of our nation's best athletes, we would not only dominate the world, the gap would be so wide this discussion would be moot. An earlier poster noted it's not just athletes, but also culture and conditions. I couldn't agree more. I simply contend that if we had all the best athletes culture would follow along lockstep.
  8. JHRoseWrestling

    Russian Revolution

    If the best athletes in South Carolina all wrestled from youth and were retained through the senior level with quality coaching the whole way we could expect similar results. There is no region of our country where wrestling attracts and retains a majority of the best athletes. We lose to football, baseball, basketball, etc. I know we have great athletes in our sport, but on a macro level this is the reason why we are not the consistently dominant force in the world.
  9. JHRoseWrestling

    Overtime idea

    This idea makes sense in theory but will be a nightmare in practice. It would place an unbelievable onus on the official to keep the defending athlete engaged. Then the official would be left with the decision of whether or not to change the winner with a flee call. I have much greater respect for the level of officiating at the world level than many participants in this board, but this is a responsibility we do NOT want to place on the refs, nor do I believe the top officials would want this responsibility. This isn't usually a problem with the shot clock as 90% occur in the first period and the benefits of remaining engaged and attempting to score outweigh those of risking a flee call for a nominal single point in the first period. Look at the difficulty keeping the winning athlete engaged in the final 15 seconds of the match, multiply this problem and apply it to 30 extra seconds in every tie match. No thanks. Criteria makes for a good product.
  10. JHRoseWrestling

    Huge mistake in Gilman match - coaches/refs

    You don’t have to break contact. Terms like loss of control are non-existent. They went from standing to grounded with one athlete on top of the other facing the same direction and behind the hips- 2 points.
  11. JHRoseWrestling

    Russian Coach

    Russian coach was red carded in Rio and returned to coach the next day. His red card today was a disturbing act of physical intimidation. A representative from UWW guaranteed he was done for the event, but elected not to speculate on further sanctions. What happens here? What do we know about his ties to the political power structure? I don't care for his demeanor and would not complain if he never returns. As a point of reference, the Mongolian coaches got 3 year ban for a nonviolent protest in Rio. While embarassing, further investigation revealed this protest was one of cultural relevance in the native country of the offenders.
  12. JHRoseWrestling

    Congrats to Yowlys Bonne Rodríguez!

    Unlikely this problem is fixed. Two scenarios seem more likely: Bonne wasn't offered any incentive as Russia expected Rashidov would easily dispatch him (as most of us did), or he was offered a bribe and said no thanks I'm 35 and getting this gold. Actions of Russian coach today don't indicate a change in attitude about such matters of ethics.
  13. JHRoseWrestling

    JG JB, KD, DT, JC, KS, NG

    Well we by no means have to agree. I, for one, am really enjoying applying numerical values to these probabilities. It makes one think deeply about the beliefs we hold and this linear method of thinking my even drive us to conclusions divergent from what our initial reactions would be. Before I give you a final thing to consider, let’s acknowledge that this board is riddled with topics that I find frivolous. You can always elect not to continue reading the thread (understanding that the thread title did not indicate we would be assigning numerical values to quantify the strength of ones opinion) but you chose to insult those who did participate (understanding that your statement may not have been a direct attack, but a mildly rude observation). So the parting shot: there is the opportunity to legally gamble on the event in question. By following a numerical line of thinking it could help the prospective bettor determine what odds have value based on their self-generated probability. Since you indicated a lack of understanding of why this exercise would be worthy of time investment, I simply offer a possibility as to why this could be useful. I won’t be playing for money myself, I simply appreciate the opportunity to do some evaluation of our team through a different metric in anticipation of my favorite week of wrestling this year. Cheers and go Team USA.
  14. JHRoseWrestling

    JG JB, KD, DT, JC, KS, NG

    Fun police
  15. JHRoseWrestling

    JG JB, KD, DT, JC, KS, NG

    The question is gold? I hope you guys are right. JG: 10% JB: 50% KD: 40% DT: 35% JC: 20% KS: 70% NG: 10% Rationale: I used the chances for victory against the perceived best foreign opponent as the starting point. From there I backed out guys down based on the number and quality of landmine rounding out the field. For example, I have DT as 40:60 against Hassan Yazdani. With demonstrated success against the remaining competitors expected to appear, I dropped him back a mere 5% additional points. I have KS at 80:20 against Abdulrashid Sadulaev. With losses to others in the field, I wanted to rock an additional 15%, but considering KS history of correcting losses at the culminating event, I settled on just 10%. Gold for NG will require he beat one of or both of TUR and GEO. 10% is probably generous.
  16. JHRoseWrestling

    Weight trajectory leading to worlds

    Thanks nom. I am uncomfortable acting as the international wrestling weight management expert... But everyone seems to be agreeing the weight progression this year will be similar to D1 wrestling, even if there is some back and forth about quantity. Observation of any major NCAA event show a number of wrestlers saving the last of the cut until shortly before the area is closed to take the scales (including the championship event). As a result, I see no reason to think the same wouldn't hold true for at least some members of this year's world team.
  17. JHRoseWrestling

    Weight trajectory leading to worlds

    It’s worth noting, in advance of a hard cut, the guys are probably water-loading, meaning they are super hydrated, with a sodium-free diet in advance of the cut. This will make the water fall off at a faster rate.
  18. JHRoseWrestling

    Weight trajectory leading to worlds

    In plastics- with a hard run, 4-5 lbs an hour is probably what could be expected for a middleweight.
  19. JHRoseWrestling

    Weight trajectory leading to worlds

    Hey nom, You have the athletes going to bed at 102% and waking up on weight. Floating is lingo for “weight lost during sleep/over the passage of time without active weight loss practices”. Everyone “floats” weight in their sleep, but 1 to 1.5% is probably more accurate. I certainly acknowledge that this will vary athlete to athlete, but 3 pounds overnight for a middleweight is probably in excess of what the typical high level athlete could expect.
  20. JHRoseWrestling

    Weight trajectory leading to worlds

    Since I would expect these athletes are following a similar progression as college guys, I will give you some thoughts on your suggested decent. 1. I'd say you are really close to accurate. It will vary guy to guy, with some exceeding 110% at one week out. 2. I would remove your 2 day out suggestion. I expect they aren't starting to restrict fluids until 18 hours out. 2 days out will probably more closely resemble 5-7 days out. 3. Floating 2% is generous. 4. I would expect the guys to go to bed 3% over, with the last 2-1.5% being cut at the venue immediately prior to the scales. 5. They will rehydrate more than 4 percent. Every coach I have had close experience with understands the "there is no tomorrow" philosophy- meaning weight is an afterthought until you have qualified for the second day. Even with fluid loss in competition, I would expect the athlete be 6% over at least when they start their cut for day 2. Obviously this final number will depend on how much the athlete was cutting initially.
  21. JHRoseWrestling

    World Championship Seeds and Team Race Implications

    Charlie, Thanks for a great post. The unreliable seeding coupled with this team scoring system creates some funky possibilities. Basically if the top two competitiors hit prior to the finals, the match is more valuable from a team scoring standpoint than if they hit in the final. This is an interesting juxtaposition against NCAA style scoring where 3rd place finishers have the opportunity to outscore the runner up (and maybe on rare occasions the champion). As a result, I don’t think we want our guy and the Russian opposite each other. If they hit in the semis or prior, it is likely a 10 point match with the winner taking 1st for 25 points and the loser likely taking 3rd for 15 points. If they face off in the finals it will be 25-20 for a net 5 point advantage. If we have to bet on a guy for a win for the team, I would be most comfortable placing the biggest bet on our best guy. Give me Snyder and Sadulaev on the same side. We are guaranteed the match and we get maximum reward for a win. Back to another idiosyncrasy of this system. Let’s say our returning champion draws and defeats the Russian number two in the world in the first round. In a vacuum, meaning we don’t need the full 25 points for first to hold off the team sitting in 3rd, we would net more points over Russia by bagging the semi final match. Our guy could go on to take 3rd (15 points) but leave the Russian frozen out of the backdraw netting the bad guys zero points. Not that I see this happening but this hypothetical does demonstrate a flaw in the current system.
  22. JHRoseWrestling

    Junior Worlds 2018

    Like I said, there is a larger discussion at play here. Your specific examples do little to refute the claim that wrestling streams are to inconsistent to take full advantage of their ability to grow the fanbase. Back to the issue at hand, it's a matter of business. Is it tracks fault a plug got kicked loose? Maybe the price point can be adjusted to have technical quality control on the ground in slovakia. Regardless, track is holding our money for these matches. When a stream fails we should be refunded or better yet credited future events to keep eyes on wrestling. As an aside, the stream has been great for me. I saw a nice opportunity to start a discussion about how investing in production value could have long term gains, for all interested parties including the provider. After some thought, the junior worlds thread is not the place to carry the rest of this discussion out. Let's make a deal. When things slow down I will revisit this with a thoughtful post, and you will join in with your expert understanding of event production and media.
  23. JHRoseWrestling

    Jordan Burroughs: Jim Thorpe

    Our growth in popularity has infinitely more to do with access them any one individual. (The internet) Wrestling specific media outlets to tell the stories and show the matches to a wrestling audience. Elsewhere in these boards old matches of Dave Schultz that are previously unseen by most of us are generating a buzz at the moment and I can't help but think he would have matched if not surpassed JB in popularity if he had the modern promotional machine behind him. Probably same could be said for the likes of John Smith, KJ, or big Bruce from the same era.
  24. JHRoseWrestling

    Junior Worlds 2018

    Irrelevant. Trackwrestling is the entity that took our money with the promise of providing these matches live. They are the appropriate outlet for this complaint. Either be in position to insure you will be able to deliver or don't make such a promise. There is much more to this discussion, but I know you're working hard over there in Slovakia, so maybe another time. We should circle back actually, as I think consistently failed streams is a significant barrier to growth of the sport domestically.
  25. JHRoseWrestling

    Sergei Beloglazov new CKWC coach

    "Nothing" is too strong a word here. A fairer statement would be that there is more to coaching than showing technique or engaging an audience.