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Posts posted by tommygun

  1. 9 minutes ago, Lurker said:

    Hope those that were screaming “yeah but the flu” at the beginning of this thread, less than two weeks ago, are paying more attention now. As the really smart people have been telling is all along, when the number of dead is doubling from 10 to 20, from 100 to 200....people aren’t taking it seriously. Well we went from 1 to 1000 in 28 days. And 1000 to 5000 in less than a week. The next doubling is 10,000. And so on.  

    Hope everyone takes this next month seriously...

    Totally.  So many posts not aging well around here.  Makes a person that follows the data and science wonder how so many people could be so wrong?!?  And still wrong!!!!  

  2. 9 minutes ago, ionel said:

    Italy appears to have a much higher death rate than about anywhere else.  Perhaps due to older population, spend of response and lower quality & quantity of hospital facilities.  

    It will be interesting to compare NY to Italy in a few weeks.  

  3. 5 minutes ago, wrestlingnerd said:

    Worse in absolute terms? Sure. We have almost 6x the population than Italy. In relative terms, which is the only way to compare the impact of a health epidemic between two countries? Absolutely no way.

    Northern Italy has about 25M people. NY state has about 20M people.  Are you suggesting NY will be more similar to S Korea or Northern Italy?  By any conceivable measurement?  The data is telling us we are poised to have many many “Italy” like scenarios on our hands throughout this country.  Do you not agree?  

  4. 11 hours ago, wrestlingnerd said:

    Terrible take. The death toll does not lie. Reported deaths are hard to fake in this country. The more we test, the BETTER the results will be relative to deaths because as we count more confirmed cases, the % of deaths relative to those cases drops, not the other way around. We are nowhere near the cluster that is Italy right now and have never been throughout the spread.

    To put this in wrestling terms, we are still putting on our ankle bands.  The match has not even started yet in the US.  I’m just calling balls and strikes here, following science and data.  It’s not a “take.”  In 20 days, please review my posts.  We will be worse than Italy / Spain and nowhere near S Korea.  

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