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PA-Fan

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Everything posted by PA-Fan

  1. Not all, no. But Telford is far from a heavy favorite here.
  2. Probably Right. - McD is the favorite here, period. Right. - Sorry Moore, you are no Kyle Dake. Absolutely Wrong. - Lofthouse stinks (in comparison to Ruth anyway) / Ruth is a machine - Bonus is happening. Right. - Q will not pin himself, the AS match is useless here, and I expect bonus is quite possible. Probably Wrong. - If for no other reason, almost all HWT matches are toss-ups.
  3. I get the point you are making Vak, I just think the "Q had a close match with Schiller - Burak had a tight one with Schiller - therefore he can also keep it close with Q" argument is a little thin. Obviously it can happen, but Q wrestles a style that is always dangerous - and he is much more seasoned than Burak. I am not basing this on what I want to happen (at least I dont believe i am), but on the comparison of the wrestlers. We shall soon see what will happen...I for one am predicting bonus for Q.
  4. Did I suggest they "sometimes look for bonus and sometimes don't"? I will save you the time, no. No I didn't. What I did say was that the will "go out from the whistle for bonus" - meaning that they will know they team needs their bonus points to win (which is a situation that has not come up before this season)...so they will not be taking their time and looking for the "best" opportunities. They will be using every second of the 7 mins to score, and keep scoring.
  5. Vak, that didn't even count...merely an exhibition match...move along now...nothing to see here... Just kidding - that's something you have to worry about with a guy like Q. He'll throw or go for big leg trips. Against Gambrall at the NCAAs, he used an outside leg trip, took him to his back, cradled him, and pinned Grant. At the All-Star, Q was trying an inside leg trip, Wilps caught him, flattened him and pinned Q. Burak is capable of doing the same if the right opportunity arises. He seems to be improving nicely this season. I gotta say it is very odd to me how quickly people forget exactly how good Q is/has been for the last few years. I mean he is a two time finalist and 1 time champ the past two seasons (who is also undefeated this year)! No disrespect to Burak, but I honestly do not think he is in Q's league, and I feel that Q is going to show that.
  6. I really have to point a few things out here: 1) Nobody has suggested that Moore and Lofthouse are fish - this leads to my second point. 2) We are talking about David Taylor and Ed Ruth, two of the most prolific scorers in college wrestling. Predicting bonus, even above and beyond a major, is not disrespectful to their opponent. Specifically in the case of Ed Ruth this year - he just literally looks unbeatable...a man among boys. It is scary 3) Saying a fall is more likely than a tech seems pretty obvious to me - I think it should be pretty obvious that turning and pinning someone, at this level, is much easier than opening up a 15 pt lead. If Taylor and Ruth go out from the whistle for bonus, which I expect they will know they should be doing, it is going to be very difficult to "slow them down" and keep it to a dec/major - without getting crushed with stall calls.
  7. Evans is now majoring Brown? That is an interesting thought. How is it you see Evans is better than Brown by the major decision? I mean this seems like the closest toss-up of the dual. That pick alone is a bit of a stretch, but it just becomes a bit crazy when you also have Taylor and Ruth winning by major only. I think Taylor is a bit farther ahead of Moore than Evans is ahead of Brown (or vice versa) - same goes for Ruth v Lofthouse (possibly even more so). I would say you a being a homer here...but I dont think that is the case (especially if you are picking McD to lose). I just think your picks seems totally inconsistent and I am generally intrigued by you thought process.
  8. The major advantage that PSU has, IMO, is that they could conceivably lose ALL of the toss up matches and still win. That would be a stretch (and they need basically all the bonus possible in order to do it), but it is still possible. Iowa, on the flip side, can not really afford to lose these toss ups. They are not going to score bonus the way PSU will - so they need the swing matches - all of them (or a major, majorrrr upset). We all know that a match like this goes up and down - meaning that very rarely does on side win ALL of the toss up matches - that bodes well for PSU. If PSU gets even one of the "toss ups" (although I wouldn't technically call them all toss-ups, but for the point lets just run with it) at 125, 141, 157, 174, or HWT - and all of their move heavy favorites do what they most likely will/should do - then they will win, period. Like I posted earlier, I think 174 will be that swing match for PSU. I also think that they will not only get one of them, but more likely at least two (say 174 and HWT). If that happens - as it usually does in close dual match ups - this close match on paper could end up looking something like 24-12 PSU.
  9. This is what I think, exactly. Alton is no Jordan Oliver, that is for sure. But JO does not have the throwing/big move arsenal/style of Alton. Kelly will not be looking to just avoid bonus here, he will be looking to win - that could get him in a sticky situation.
  10. take off the blue and white glasses homer I think that is a bit harsh. The only "homer" pick here is Mega ove McD...which while it would be an upset...hardly warrants being criticized as a "homer" in this way - as if he is going off the rails with his picks to predict a win for PSU. Especially when he also predicted only a dec for Q and only a Major for Taylor...as well as bonus against Conaway and a loss in key toss-up matches with D Alton and Brown. Far from a "homer" prediction here.
  11. He was out of the room for 30 days. Part of the suspension, according to the paper, was that they were not allowed to practice with the team. And you believe that Cael just let them sit around and not work out to keep in shape? That sounds reasonable. Like I said, maybe he was having an off day / was out of practice on the mat - but these are issues that can be fixed in a week of practice easily. He is not "out of shape" because he was sitting in his dorm room playing play station while the team practiced for a month...that is silly.
  12. my thoughts exactly! This line of thinking is a bit exaggerated. The fact that he gassed out does not necessarily mean he is "out of shape" - as in he needs to "get in shape in 1 week". He could have been ill - slightly out of practice - having a bad day - etc etc. All of which are much, much more likely than he is out of shape - mid season - in one of the best rooms in the nation. He will be fine.
  13. It is hard to give a computer much credit that predicts a Taylor decision!! :D No offense to Nick Moore...but come on. Id be more shocked by Taylor not scoring bonus points that Lofthouse upsetting Ruth!
  14. I see it much differently than you VAk (no surprise :D ) 125: McDonough DEC Megaludis 133: Ramos MDEC Conaway 141: Ballweg DEC Pearsall 149: Alton MDEC Kelly (I think a major is minimum - I honestly think he will get a fall - but we will stay conservative) 157: St. John DEC Alton 165: Taylor TECH Moore (TECH minimum. The team will need his bonus, and he will know it.) 174: Brown DEC Evans (Key toss up match. Evans looks like a slight favorite - but I believe Brown will pull this out - thus swinging the match to PSU) 184: Ruth MDEC Lofthouse (Major is a minimum is Lofthouse can shell up and defend. Fall is quite within the realm of possibility.) 197: Wright FALL Burak (Wright is much, much better. And a pinner. Enough said. I think predicting a dec here is just wishful thinking) HW: Telford DEC Gingrich PSU 21- Iowa 16. While Iowa matches up very very well with PSU, and is able to neutralize some of their higher ranked guys, I think PSU's ability to score bonus (as well as Iowa's lack there of) wins them this match. It is very possible to see a fall from Alton, Taylor, Ruth, and Wright. In which case the doors could be blown off. That is why PSU wins. Iowas big guns will score decisions...PSU's will put up the big bonus points - that is why they are the two time defending National Champs!! :D 1. It looks to me like we have picked the exact same winners at every weight except for the main swing match, so not "much differently". 2. Kelly has held both Jordan Oliver and DYlan Ness, prolific bonus point wrestlers and more accomplished than Andrew ALton to regular decisions while Alton just gassed out and got pinned. I'd say "major at a minimum" is the wishful thinking here. He could get the major, but to say it's a minimum is ridiculous based on our evidence. 3. BUrak is a much improved wrestler from where he was earlier in the season, with really tough handfighting and a 2 on 1 tie that will slow almost everyone down. Schiller held QW to a decision and QW just barely escaped with a win against Burak, so I hardly see it as wishful thinking that BUrak holds QW to a decision as well, though I have no illusions about the chances of an upset. All fair points. (Having a reasonable debate is sort of weird!) 1. We did pick the same winners, for the most part. Just the bonus situation we see differently. Also, i should have made it more clear, I was trying to stay on the conservative side (except for my pick of a fall for Q...I just see it happening, we will need the bonus!) 2. Point well taken about Kelly slowing down prolific scorers...most impressively Oliver obviously. However, Andrew Alton is a different breed (I do not mean to say Alton is better than Oliver and/or Ness - just that he is a big move threat, where as say Oliver is just so good you can not stop him) He is a big move threat at all times...I don't see Kelly being able to avoid it...unless something is long-term wrong with Alton (as opposed to just a bad day / illness - as for the gassing and being pinned). 3. Burak is much improved - sure. But I do not think he is in the same league as Q, and Q is a gamer. The team will need bonus points - and I think he will go and get them over a wrestler he is superior too...that is all. Especially given the closness of this match on paper - I doubt Iowa guys are going to go out and look to stay alive in these types of matches (save for matches against Taylor / Ruth) - they will look for the win and the big points swing. That is a recipe for a fall against Q IMO.
  15. I see it much differently than you VAk (no surprise :D ) 125: McDonough DEC Megaludis 133: Ramos MDEC Conaway 141: Ballweg DEC Pearsall 149: Alton MDEC Kelly (I think a major is minimum - I honestly think he will get a fall - but we will stay conservative) 157: St. John DEC Alton 165: Taylor TECH Moore (TECH minimum. The team will need his bonus, and he will know it.) 174: Brown DEC Evans (Key toss up match. Evans looks like a slight favorite - but I believe Brown will pull this out - thus swinging the match to PSU) 184: Ruth MDEC Lofthouse (Major is a minimum is Lofthouse can shell up and defend. Fall is quite within the realm of possibility.) 197: Wright FALL Burak (Wright is much, much better. And a pinner. Enough said. I think predicting a dec here is just wishful thinking) HW: Telford DEC Gingrich PSU 21- Iowa 16. While Iowa matches up very very well with PSU, and is able to neutralize some of their higher ranked guys, I think PSU's ability to score bonus (as well as Iowa's lack there of) wins them this match. It is very possible to see a fall from Alton, Taylor, Ruth, and Wright. In which case the doors could be blown off. That is why PSU wins. Iowas big guns will score decisions...PSU's will put up the big bonus points - that is why they are the two time defending National Champs!! :D
  16. PA-Fan

    Caldwell

    I'd say that still is crazy. Not being on the level to make the finals over Dake/Taylor is one thing...but saying he is not going to AA? That is a little ridiculous as well. Barring any injury, he will certainly be on the podium.
  17. Defending National Champ Steiber is clearly ducking the guy he is 3-0 against in his career.
  18. I gotta say, all the still-frames are a bit ridiculous. They capture a fraction of a second that on tape looks nothing at all similar. I sure someone can find a still of Dake completely seperated from Taylor on the escape, before Dake latches back on. Does that mean in real time it was an escape??? Anyone remember the Dake defensive pin still-frame? That being said, this was a reversal. Anyone still arguing against it as a legitimate call is just being biased...just don't use still-frames as evidence of something that took place in under 2 seconds real time...it proves nothing.
  19. Geez this latest exchange is giving me a headache. I am as PSU as it gets (at least I thought I was), but Brown CANNOT be ranked 3rd. If for no other reason, there are 3 other wrestlers at 174 in the top 10 with a 0 on the back end of their record (Not to mention Kokesh with a single loss also, to the same guy Brown has a loss to..by a much closer margin on paper, and more wins). Is Brown good enough to be in that 3 spot, certainly. I think basically 3-8 is a tie for 3rd at this point, and not at all far behind 2, slightly more behind 1. But there is no way to justify ranking him 3rd right now....How good you think he is does not count as a ranking criteria.
  20. I have reffed, briefly, and not on the college level. But here is my input (from earlier in the thread) This camera angle shows the reversal situation much more clearly, even though it is further away. At full speed on first view on the flo camera, I thought the call was ridiculous. Seeing the same camera replay again and again I though it was not ridiculous, but questionable and a tough call to make. Seeing this angle however, I will upgrade that even more. Honestly I can not argue it anymore. You may be able to find nuances and reasons why it was not a reversal, but given this view I don't think calling it a reversal can be argued legitimately. Good call. The fact is that from the new angle, even at full speed, Dake does get behind while still in bounds. Even from this still frame you can see it is a reversal (Taylor's foot is still clearly in bounds). I think now that this was the correct call, and a tough one to make at that. The escape I see a bit differently (see earlier post), but this was R-2.
  21. Not that this affects the rankings, as someone pointed out a loss is a loss...but I think you are severly misrepresenting this match up for anyone who may not have seen it. If my memory serves correctly, the score was 0-0 when the scramble/reversal/fall happened. Not taking anything away from Storley, he is a monster. But he is not far and away ahead of Brown...certainly not by fall. Also, not to mention, they are now 1-1 in their careers (Brown beat him at last years Scuffle). aka 'he got caught' You are the worst. I made a single point with this post, that MSU was misrepresenting the match up, period. I didn't say Brown should have won, or he would win if they meet again, or he got caught, or he deserved to win, or he should be ranked higher...none of that. Do I think Brown should be ranked higher than 8? No. Do I think that he could beat Storley, yes. But if you want to open up this type of argument, weren't you of the the "Amuch pounded Ruth, and the injury had nothing to do with it, and Ruth shouldn't be favored over him in a rematch..." guys? If I recall correctly, you were. How did that work out? How about Taylor getting trounced by Dake in freestyle? Dake sure has blown him out in their two folk meetings, huh. A single lop-sided result does not mean much...especially if the match was tied 0-0 when you get reversed to you back in a scramble and pinned.
  22. Not that this affects the rankings, as someone pointed out a loss is a loss...but I think you are severly misrepresenting this match up for anyone who may not have seen it. If my memory serves correctly, the score was 0-0 when the scramble/reversal/fall happened. Not taking anything away from Storley, he is a monster. But he is not far and away ahead of Brown...certainly not by fall. Also, not to mention, they are now 1-1 in their careers (Brown beat him at last years Scuffle).
  23. I don't think they would, but there's no Burroughs or Howe at 174. Burroughs I don't think so. Howe, im not so sure...i'd call it a toss up.
  24. Here is what I think... This camera angle shows the reversal situation much more clearly, even though it is further away. At full speed on first view on the flo camera, I thought the call was ridiculous. Seeing the same camera replay again and again I though it was not ridiculous, but questionable and a tough call to make. Seeing this angle however, I will upgrade that even more. Honestly I can not argue it anymore. You may be able to find nuances and reasons why it was not a reversal, but given this view I don't think calling it a reversal can be argued legitimately. Good call. The escape is a bit different. It is more of a toss-up call that can go either way. The way these calls go depends on the flow of the match and the situation - i.e the guy working harder to score will usually get the call in this close of a match, especially when at the time the reversal call was fresh in the rear view and questionable. Dake's hand's clearly did break, and then re lock. I don't think the "well if there was 30 seconds and he got the escape and dake got another td...blah blah" argument is valid, its rhetorical hypothetical nonsense. I wont go as far as saying that it was the absolute wrong call...but given the circumstances and flow of the match, I think maybe Taylor should have gotten that call. All-in-all the officiating was nowhere near as awful and terrible as it seemed at first.
  25. So, so, so, soooo not why he is sitting out.
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