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Everything posted by HokieHWT

  1. Fair enough. That means it was between 90.0 and 90.4% after initial testing. If it we’re 90.5% to 91.0% they would have said 91.0% effective. Was this suppose to be some kind of “gotcha”? Currently they have 94.5% effectiveness and are declaring 95%. Not sure what you’re going for? Every publicly available article I’d seen from either 11/9 or 11/10, cited said “90%”, including quotes from their representatives.
  2. Interesting but I wouldn’t have called him a “nobody” at the 2000 Olympics. He beat Ghaffarri, the 1996 Silver Medalist who only lost to Karelin 1-0. At 2000-1 to beat Karelin, there HAD to have been more than a few people who took these results and put down some money on Rulon. I was 18 years old and couldn’t, but I’d have put at least $100 on it.
  3. This was what I, poorly, was trying to allude to in the confounding variable comment I made. Unless everyone were exposed to the same environmental factors, their are always room for outside variables that cannot be accounted for, in the results. Since I’m not privy to that information, but it appears Billy is well versed on the studies, he may have an answer.
  4. I’m out of emotes but I’d give 100 likes/thanks if I could.
  5. Absolutely. Overall, what I was trying to do, and failed miserably at, was to make a point about trusting everything you read and here. I was trying to make a point that unless you are the ones performing the research, and having in-depth knowledge of every aspect, you can’t assume anything. It should be obvious, by now, I’m in the field. I’ve consulted with the CDC, ED, NIH and WHO, among others, this year and no one knows who’s working on what. It’s so compartmentalized, for various reasons, it’s hard to keep up with.
  6. I’m not concerned about the results. I think it’s wonderful. I don’t think they stacked anything. It’s merely a small sample size. It was just funny, not in a conspiracy way, that Pfizer said “we have 90%”, then Moderna said “we have 95%”, then Pfizer said “we have 95% as well!”.
  7. To be honest, I can’t answer that without seeing their methodology, sampling procedures, and how they are stratifying data. I won’t make assumptions on the results without causing someone to take it and say “well a guy I know said that...which is proof that this means....” It’s common knowledge, in any profession, that you can get the results you want by manipulating data. That does not mean that I’m accusing anyone of fraud, I’m not. I’m not saying anything was done unethically either. By manipulating data I don’t mean changing results on purpose either. By combining, merging, or deleting certain data in different ways you can end up with different results. In social science research, particularly in academia, it’s not uncommon to “clean” data to the point that you receive a statistically significant result with a p-value less than (p < .05) to be able to say “yes” or “no” to a research question.
  8. Ok I’ll drop this and then sit back and enjoy the thread from now on. CoVID Vacccine November 9-10: Pfizer & BioNTech; incomplete results; 90% effective November 16th: Moderna; complete results with safety data; 94.5% effective; submitted for emergency approval Today, November 18th: Pfizer & BioNTech; complete results including safety data; 95% effective; submitted for emergency appproval. Without seeing the sampling procedures/criteria, I couldn’t tell you whether their samples are valid but I do know they were small. 30-40K in the samples and only 100-180, respectively, contracted COVID. Of the 170 who contracted COVID in the Pfizer trial, 162 were in the placebo group and 8 had received the vaccine. The data isn’t public, only high level overviews of the findings. Additionally, confounding variables, stuff that can contribute to an observed result, such as age, weight, other sicknesses/diseases, etc., have not been mentioned, and that may be purposeful, which is concerning.
  9. :D (out of face clicks) yeah sorry I meant between two people. Although both could be wrong, I’ve seen that recently but can’t remember where....
  10. Difference is biostats are obtained from biology based experiments rather than something compiled from another realm, a social science for example. There aren’t that many differences, mathematically, just biostats are more applied than theoretical.
  11. I have absolutely done each of these at least once in my professional career. Now putting them all together, all the time, would be difficult but not impossible. Maybe hire a Director of Wrestling to take care of these and I’ll do the paper work?
  12. Have you lived and worked in Hong Kong or Mainland China?
  13. Since someone in your house is a professional, have them show you a simulation of the pandemic using EpiModel on R. If they don’t use R, or have access to epidemiology add-ons to for their modeling software, try out GLEAMviz. I’ll leave it at this, but think I’m going to take some time off this thread for a while after, I guarantee you, few people are listening to what the true experts, not the mouth pieces, spokesperson, media release writers, the true experts, the ones working 80-100 hours a week on this. This is vague, I hope, enough to tell. I began consulting for a state department of education in the south central United States early summer. I was to use my expertise in education, research methods, epidemiology, and biostatistics to help that state open schools safely. By the end of August, they refused to listen, told the school districts if they didn’t open by a certain date those districts would not receive funding. I expressed concerns, was told I could resign, I explained I would but they would be required to pay out the remaining, agreed up compensation. They agreed. I now consultant, as I like, for various other organizations and it’s pretty much the same thing. I tell them what I found, sometimes they agree and I keep going, sometimes they don’t and I get paid to leave. Please try to stay healthy and safe everyone!
  14. The great thing about America is people can have a difference of opinion. The bad part is only half of those opinions are correct. Not saying yours is or isn’t. But the greatest question you can ever ask yourself is “but what if?”
  15. They could if they were actually allowed to speak out on the subject but are silenced by contracts, NDAs, threatened with lawsuits, etc. if they do. Can’t tell you how I know, but I know.
  16. Google Chinese government killing its own citizens. 35,000,000+ since 1949. Recently, outspoken business men, scientists, doctors, researchers, have VANISHED for speaking out. The guy who tried to warn the government about COVID, two weeks before the initial outbreak was put into prison where he died from COVID. I know it’s scary world out there kid, but step out of your bubble and check out reality. This world sucks.
  17. Well you know how great China’s government is, so obviously it must of been meant in jest. I’m not getting into a pissing contest with anyone over politics, public health, or foreign governments killing their own citizens to meet their agendas. So no need to quote me and hit me with “well, ackually ...”
  18. Yeah and if you have CoVID over there they just kill you, rather than quarantine you. Very effective in controlling the numbers of infected.
  19. She’s a very intelligent woman, on multiple fronts.
  20. And I’m not trying to prove a point, I’m actually quite interested in if anyone has done any empirical research. Hell, I’d even like to some secondary analyses on publicly available data.
  21. Since I don’t know how to put up a poll, I’ll ask this, feel free to respond: Do any of you currently work in, or have a degree in any of the following fields: public health, virology, biostatistics, genetics, epidemiology, molecular biology, medicine?
  22. I like how you click the links on a cell phone and allows you to call the numbers you’ve provided :)
  23. Wow. I hope it wasn’t an email sent by one of the members of this board poking holes in his background and exposing all his “credentials” for what they were. That’d be a tragedy.
  24. It’s ok, I made another account and I’m in! I can’t find it though :/ if you do, let me know. Either way I’ll add another $10 to my monthly donation to AFSP.
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