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maligned

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Everything posted by maligned

  1. Dubov was the biggest name in the bracket. The other 3 medalists were Romania's junior and U23 rep from 2019, Kazakhstan's junior rep from 2019, and a past University silver from Kazakhstan.
  2. Agree. The move was stupid. My point was in response to someone making it sound like he lost to a typical Pan Am bottom feeder, rather than the unusual, world-level guy that Destribats is--again, as proven by the Kolov gold he just picked up against 100% top 15 wrestling nation opponents.
  3. Zain deserves criticism for sure, but the size of this upset is getting overplayed. Destribats is on another planet compared to other non-US, non-Cuban freestylers from the Pan Am region. He's a world-class, dynamic athlete who hits big moves and who owns lots of good wins. He just won the Dan Kolov in Bulgaria this weekend in a bracket of all Georgians, Kazaks, Bulgarians, Turks, and Romanians that included a couple national teamers.
  4. It was mentioned elsewhere but Bekbulatov of Uzbekistan got pinned this morning after being up 8-0 and didnt qualify in Asia. So add his name to this list. For me, Gadzhiev, Bekbulatov, Skriabin, Kiliksallyan are the ones who can beat JO straight up (although I'd favor the US trials version of him against any of them). The others on this list would need mental slip ups on JO's part to beat him.
  5. Yazdanicherati and Bekbulatov are on opposite sides at the Asian qualifier, meaning they've both got a seemingly open path to top 2 and qualification. That should reduce to 3 or 4 the list of strongest threats JO will face at the world qualifier.
  6. I agree with others who have a more tempered expectation. All 6 of those weights will be loaded with landmines wrestling at their highest level with the best training and nutrition support in an olympic year. Gray is favored but I'd say even 50% genuine expectation against the field for gold is optimistic. Tamyra could conceivably be more like 70%. But then Jacarra's probably only 2nd or 3rd best..maybe 15-20% for gold. And Helen is probably more like 4th or 5th best at 57. She can definitely win it, but the genuine probability is likely only about 10%. Throw in less than 5% combined gold probability for Hildebrandt and Miracle and a good over/under for golds is more like 1.5 than the 2.5 or 3 people are discussing.
  7. It's definitely a sweet spot size-wise for getting a beast from every nation. The top few nations have someone tough at every weight. The documented larger stature next-tier wrestling nations (e.g. Belarus, Ukraine) can struggle at 57 & 61, but 65 isnt too small. The documented smaller stature wrestling nations (Japan, Mongolia, India) struggle at the biggest 3-4 weights, but 65 isnt too big for them. It's a perfect middle ground to get not only someone good from every nation--but the best of a deep pool of talent from each of those nations.
  8. In my opinion, Helen's not at nearly the same level as when she's been at lower weights and would tech or pin everyone but the top few in the world. She's still very good and a medal contender but I'd guess her to be our 4th most likely ladies' gold possibility.
  9. Here's the posted entry list for this weekend. Bekbulatov and Yazdanicherati are the very clear favorites. Hopefully they're in two separate brackets and one less top guy will be at the world qualifier.
  10. Shuptar and Dubov are past their prime and undersized. Habat and Mukhtarov don't beat the top guys. Bucur has some close matches against top guys but no big signature wins. Khinch, as I said, feels like he'll be physically outmanned at 65kg against JO. But Gadzhiev, Skriaban, and Kilicsallyan will all be tough outs for sure. I was thinking Turkey is wrestling this weekend, which is wrong of course, so all 3 of those guys will be at the world qualifier. Should be very, very interesting.
  11. I didnt remember you're here sometimes, jc. Nice to know your wrestling junkie streak extends internationally.
  12. It's so funny that he completely suffocates possibly one of the top 5 (and definitely one of the most dynamic) guys in the world twice and we're stressing out that his shot volume was less than against crappier opponents who aren't so familiar with him.
  13. Khinchigashvili isnt nearly the same guy at 65kg and would not have the horsepower to hang with JO. S. Korea and Uzbekistan shouldn't have anybody that would seriously challenge JO. That leaves Iran, Turkey, and Gadzhiev. Gadzhiev is arguably past his prime, but I'd be nervous. Anyone the other two would send would also be a challenge, but one or both of them will qualify from Asia this weekend. It's highly likely JO will have to face one or two of this caliber but I like his chances if his maturation is as real as it seemed this weekend.
  14. Guys that gas are often in denial and say things like, "I don't wrestle well with a lead." I will say that Arujau looked sloppy against Fix late (but not gassed). He got flat worn down by Gilman though. NO ONE is capable of going guns blazing for 6 minutes against high level people with good head-and-hand defense. It's part of the reason Burroughs has often seemed agonizingly calculating. If he goes all in on 4 attempts in the first minute, he's toast, even with a lead. JO going all in for the first minute or two and then blowing it consistently and chalking it up to being bad with a lead is just bad self-awareness. Wrestling situationally from the first whistle like he did this weekend is slightly less flashy, but just as impressive--and makes him downright dangerous in terms of being a medal threat.
  15. I've never thought he was our most complete guy. His losses against savvy, well-conditioned opponents were always very predictable. This is the first and only time I've understood the JO allegiances. He was patient, calculated, well-conditioned, had world-class hand fighting--and kept his dynamic attacking skills. If he wrestles like he did this weekend, he will qualify the weight and is a very legit medal contender.
  16. I've never understood the allure with JO. All flash with no gas tank or consistency has been his MO. But if he wrestles anything like he did this weekend, he ABSOLUTELY can qualify us and win a medal. Our problem most years at 65kg has been that we've sent savvy, unathletic guys that aren't dynamic enough. Oliver's newfound patience, gas tank, hand fighting, and match management--added to the tantalizingly athletic attacks--have moved him up a significant notch in my book. I think that just as Molinaro's 2016 post-Trials performances validated his having won the spot, JO's performance across 4 rock-solid matches will prove not to be a fluke if he wrestles anything like this going forward.
  17. Anyone can get a free 7 day trial of peacock. That's what I'm doing.
  18. Tonight: single match semifinals all weights, and single match final when there's someone already waiting in an overall best of 3 finals slot. Tomorrow: best of 3 final, all weights
  19. It's slightly tricky to differentiate, because in essence the semis ARE the challenge tourney finals when there's no JB or Snyder awaiting an opponent.
  20. I was really scared of the Kerkvliet match as a Parris fan. Big move potential. Didnt look overmatched against Parris at B10s, just not conditioned. Now had a couple more weeks of prep. No big move necessary. Just outwrestled him.
  21. Where did you read this?
  22. Even so, it's not a question of where the automatic semifinalist is. It's adjusting your bracket math ever so slightly to balance the rest of the bracket appropriately.
  23. I definitely agree with your 57 and 65 assessment of us usually overvaluing who we're sending. I disagree with your Steveson thoughts though. He's wrestling at a higher level right now than Gwiz ever has, and Gwiz didnt have problems scoring on big guys other than the top couple at his peak. Gable would be without a doubt a much clearer medal contender than anyone we'll send at 57 or 65.
  24. Exactly. It's not intended to disadvantage or favor others where a 5 wrestles less rounds than a 2 and also faces lesser opponents. A VERY simple reworking gives normal advantage levels to higher seeds and intended advantage to the medalist. We're not the UWW. We typically put the simple, logical solution in place.
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