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Lubongo

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  1. Very excited about this team and our chances to repeat as team champions. My initial prediction below.. 57kg Thomas Gilman - returning silver medalist, liked what I saw against Fix, but unless he get's a favorable draw I'm not confident in his ability to repeat last year's results. Odds to medal = 30% Odds for Gold = 5% My prediction = wins 2-3 matches, comes up just shy of another medal, 5th place finish. 61kg Nahshon Garrett - his scoring ability gives him a chance in any match, but his tendency to give up big points could have him losing just about any match, if the Nahshon from match three from last night shows up consistently I could see a medal, but wouldn't bet on it. Odds to medal = 20% Odds for Gold = 5% (if he catches fire, who knows..) My prediction = wins 1-2 matches, but DNP. 65kg Logan Stieber - former gold medalist, but hasn't shown much ability to perform consistently against top talent at 65kg, outside shot at medal, but probably my least optimistic pick for this year's team. Odds to medal = 15% Odds for Gold = 2% My prediction = wins 1 match, DNP. 70kg James Green - returning silver medalist, has become one of our most consistent performers internationally, top three contender, decent shot at Gold if Chamizo is up at 74kg. Odds to medal = 67% Odds for Gold = 20% My prediction = repeat Silver finish. 74kg Jordan Burroughs - our most decorated athlete, returning Gold medalist, I like his chances to repeat. Odds to medal = 80% Odds for Gold = 60% My prediction = JB picks up his 6th world Gold. 79kg Kyle Dake - first time team member, but has been dominating the competition at 79kg outside of Yarygin finals, love his chance to bring home a medal, possibly Gold. Odds to medal = 70% Odds for Gold = 20% My prediction = Kid Dynamite brings home Silver at his first worlds, more competitive w/ the Russian than last time, but still comes up short. 86kg David Taylor - similar to KD, I'm super psyched to see him finally compete on the world's biggest stage, think he has a shot against anybody, previous win over Yazdani makes him a serious contender for Gold. Odds to medal = 67% Odds for Gold = 25% My Prediction = I'll predict Bronze for Taylor in his first outing, think a more conditioned Yazdani avenges his loss in a close one. 92kg J'Den Cox - two time medalist, up a weight, definite contender and I like his chances for Gold with Sad at 97. Odds to medal = 70% Odds for Gold = 30% My prediction = takes the next step, brings home his first Gold. 97kg Kyle Snyder - undefeated at worlds since emerging onto the senior circuit, but have a feeling Sad might pull it out this time. Odds to medal = 90% Odds for Gold = 50% My prediction = Kyle loses the re-match to Sadulaev in another classic w/ team title on the line, takes Silver. 125kg Nick Gwizdowski - returning bronze medalist, has been improving nicely, but with two horses at the top of this weight class, there's not much margin for error and it's tough to see him improving on last year's results. Odds to medal = 60% Odds for Gold = 10% My prediction = tough draw leads to a 5th place finish in this one. My calculated medals = 5.69 (I predict we bring home six, but I give >50% odds for seven of our guys) My calculated Golds = 2.27 (I predict we bring home two, but over half our guys have serious gold medal potential) Team prediction = I believe these medal counts would have us finishing just behind Russia for runner-up as a team
  2. Looks like a four way tie for best picks, all with only one miss on the #10 guy. Three misses on Fix and one miss on Colon. Well played gentlemen.
  3. 1. Snyder 2. Taylor 3. JB 4. Cox 5. Green 6. Stieber 7. Gwiz 8. Dake 9. Garrett 10. Fix *first five are very heavy favorites, next three I would be surprised but not shocked if they went the other way, last two seem like toss-ups
  4. Since P4P is a fantasy-type subjective concept anyways, I like to think of who I would pick first in a fantasy draft regardless of weight class. Therefore my ranking order is based on likely performance right now, at current weight, against current weight's competition.
  5. Feel free to disagree. But as I stated in my last post, the rankings I made were based on this year, at current weights, as far as potential to compete against the world's best. If Cox had stayed at 86, I likely would have him in my top 3-4. And since this is a non-olympic year, I did not put too much stock into olympic vs. non-olympic weights. My rationale for #3-#6: Dake has been dominating the competition outside of Yarygin final vs Russian, solid top contender at 79. Taylor another top contender that has been winning in dominating fashion (has previous win over current champ Yazdani). These two are pretty much a toss-up for me at 3&4. Green is also two time medalist like Cox, coming off a silver, and with Chamizo bumping up to 74 I believe he has realistic shot at gold. And with Cox moving up to a weight with Sad, I see a likely medal but pretty limited shot at Gold (which is why I have him currently behind Green by a fairly slim margin).
  6. If Cox was still at 86, I could see your argument. But a combination of him bumping up to 92, and Dake and Taylor both filled in and dominating the competition of late at 79 and 86, I have to give the edge to them at current weights right now.
  7. P4P Rankings 1. Kyle Snyder (3x World and 1x Olympic Champ, 2x Yarygin Champ) 2. Jordan Burroughs (5x World and Olympic Champ, 1x Yasar Dogu Champ) (1st tier are my gold medal favorites) 3. Kyle Dake (1x Yarygin Silver) 4. David Taylor (1x Yarygin Champ, 1x Pan Am Champ) 5. James Green (1x World Silver, 1x World Bronze) (2nd tier are my medal favorites with gold potential) 6. J'den Cox (1x Olympic Bronze, 1x World Bronze) 7. Nick Gwiazdowski (1x World Bronze, 1x Pan Am Champ, 1x Yarygin Bronze) 8. Zahid Valencia (1x Junior Silver) (3rd tier all have good shot at medaling, but gold unlikely) 9. Zain Retherford (1x Cadet Champ, 1x World Qualifier) 10. Thomas Gilman (1x World Silver) 11. Daton Fix (1x Junior Champ, 1x Junior Bronze, 1x Cadet Broze) 12. Logan Stieber (1x Non-Oly World Champ, 1x Pan Am Champ) 13. Alex Dieringer (1x Junior Silver, 1x Ukrainian Champ) 14. Mark Hall (1x Pan Am Champ, 2x Junior Champ, 1x Cadet Champ) 15. Spencer Lee (2x Junior Champ, 1x Cadet Champ) 16. Jordan Oliver (1x Junior Bronze, 1x Yasar Dogu Bronze) 17. Adam Coon (1x Junior Bronze, 1x Cadet Champ) (4th tier have medal potential) *based my rankings on ability to perform at worlds this year at current weight, if they were to make the team
  8. Gritty win by the vet through some truly awful mat conditions. Mostly glad nobody got hurt
  9. Mat conditions really working against Burroughs' power advantage, gonna have to try to finesse his way through this one.
  10. 4-5 with top 3 potential I'll admit this is a highly speculative lineup to maximize all of our guys, and agree that a more likely scenario is that guys stay put and Breske/Renteria ride the pine for a year. But I think Berger, Ventz and White have already shown themselves to be top 3 talents (Berger 3rd and 5th place AA, Ventz 4th place AA, and White split matches with Wick a 3rd place AA and went toe to toe with Joseph) and I could see Red and/or Labriola developing into potential top 3 guys.
  11. Nice catch, this was direct copy-paste job from Flo, so it appears I transcribed their typo.
  12. I felt like these guys underperformed quite a bit at the end of this year. My thinking is they come back motivated with a healthy Weigel (0 points at NCAAs this year) in his senior and immediate contender with huge bonus-point potential in Daton Fix to compete for top 3-4.
  13. I'll take a stab at Nebraska's lineup for 2019 Questions heading in.. 1. Can Renteria stay at 133? Huge disappointment missing weight at NCAAs this year, think he could have gone on a run for AA status, considering he would have likely crossed paths with DelVecchio in consis (had 3 wins over him this season). 2. Who will fill in at 149? If Renteria and Red move up, then the question becomes who will fill in at 133? 3. What's up with Breske? Top 182 recruit coming out of HS, season-ending injury early in RS season, and just hasn't really developed to this point. I suspect possible weight issues (just a hunch, no inside information on this whatsoever), so think he may be better suited for 184. My ideal lineup for a team that could compete for top three next year: 125 Thomsen, True FS (#2 incoming prospect according to Flo, could be borderline AA talent) 133 Renteria, SO (assuming he can make weight he should be a top 10 guy next year) 141 Red, RS SO (returning AA, peaked at NCAAs after a mildly disappointing season, hopefully he can continue to improve and be a top 4 guy) 149 Purinton, JR (has held his own with several top 20 guys in duals, should be borderline AA talent) 157 Berger, SR (similar to Red, he peaked at NCAAs after a mildly disappointing season, should be top 5 AA) 165 White, JR (think he can hang with anybody at this weight, top 3 talent if he continues to improve, but this weight is deep) 174 Labriola, RS FR (wins over two AA guys this year, top 8 guy with upside) 184 Breske (Ventz is already a top 4 guy, but think Breske could be borderline AA with upside if he fills into this weight) 197 Ventz (this weight clears out over half the top 20 to graduation, including the top 2, Ventz could contend for top spot here, unlike 184 with MyMar and Bo in the way) 285 Schultz (this weight clears out a lot of the top guys and I think Schultz could immediately contend for AA if he adapts to competition like a Casper) *A lot of speculative weight changes here, but this would maximize our talent as a team for the most balanced lineup top to bottom, if our guys improve from this season I could see up to 7-8 all-Americans and 4-5 with top 3 potential, plus Renteria, Labriola and Ventz all have solid bonus-point potential.
  14. Nebraska should be top ten and could very well be in the mix for top five. Nine starters return (almost entirely underclassmen), RS Labriola will be inserted into lineup somewhere (beat two medalists at 174 this year) and top incoming recruit Thomsen should take the starting spot at 125. So assuming Renteria can make weight at NCAAs and everybody continues to improve, this team should be one to watch for the next few years. I'll say: 1. Penn State 2. Iowa 3. Ohio State 4. Oklahoma State 5. Cornell/Nebraska/Michigan/Mizzou (these four seem pretty interchangeable)
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