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Posts posted by Billyhoyle

  1. 4 minutes ago, red blades said:

    We will hit 1 million confirmed cases worldwide, and 50,000 deaths before the end of the day today.  That's a death rate of about 5%.  And the number of cases is still accelerating.  Who knows where it levels off, let alone ends?

    The actual death rate is estimated to be between 0.5 and 1 % due to the present lack of testing worldwide (except in Germany and South Korea). To know exactly what it is will be impossible until serology can be performed on the population. Even that is still an exceptionally high number compared to the flu though.

  2. As a tier 1 poster, I can say this without being perceived as bitter. Your ranking system reminds me a bit of “Dr J. Evans Pritchard.” 

    Often the post that needs to be written is the unpopular opinion. There are some very annoying posters who didn’t make your list though and I did, so I admit that your system is probably good. 

  3. 1 hour ago, wrestlingnerd said:

    Since we're speculating, I also want to throw out the possibility that post-April, warmer and more humid weather, as opposed to drugs or policy, will be the biggest help to tame the spread. It's of course possible that the virus is at such a point past containment by then that the effect will be about the same either way, but there is some credible research that supports cold and dry weather seasonality of respiratory infections caused by viruses, especially coronaviruses. 

    It should definitely help some, but I hope people won’t be dumb enough to let their guards down because of it. Otherwise it will be back with a fury in September. 

  4. In my opinion the most promising drugs currently in trial are remdesivir to be broadly used and anti IL-6 mAbs to be used in the subset of patients suffering from cytokine release syndrome (aka cytokine storm). I think the drug that will eventually prove most effective is the mAb pair in development by Regeneron that specifically targets the virus (will enter clinical trials in June). The entire pandemic will end completely though with the introduction of a vaccine in 12 to 24 months. 


    The people hoarding hydroxychloroquine are in my opinion absolutely idiotic and cruel, since some people rely on it for indications for which it has shown efficacy. And the risks of taking the drug at this point probably aren’t worth it until efficacy is proven given the low mortality rate of covid. In other words, if you expect 5 deaths per 1000 patients with covid, I’d be very hesitant to take a drug with the side effects of hydroxychloroquine prior to seeing the clinical data. It is probably worth administering to those who are almost out of options though, which is how I think it is presently being applied. Definitely not first line yet though, that’s for sure. 

  5. They’re running a clinical trial on hydroxychloroquine, just like they are on a number of other repurposed drugs. There isn’t any reliable clinical data yet that supports the use of any of these compounds, but there are a number that have the potential to have some efficacy-which is why they are running the trials. It’s pointless to speculate about what may or may not work until we see the results from the trials. 

  6. 1 minute ago, goheels1812 said:

    1) I’m truly happy for those with survivorship bias. “It wasn’t bad for me so it can’t be bad for anyone else!” What a horrible mentality to have. I really hope those people don’t have an at risk family member that gets infected by them. By the way this is one of the dumbest arguments going around right now. It’s not about the healthy people, it’s about being considerate of those that are at high risk. 

    2) The majority of epidemiologists, scientists, and doctors are extremely concerned about where this virus is headed. You go ahead and start sourcing doctors that say this virus is “overblown” and I’ll source multiple more than you saying that this isn’t being taken seriously enough. 

    3) I can be reasoned with and I promise I’ve done more research on this than you have (I’m a pharmacist so staying informed on public health is a major part of my job). But there’s no point in arguing back and forth. We can revisit these posts in 1 week and then 1 month. If you are right about it being overblown I will happily admit it.

    The Dr. he sourced was Dr. drew. It’s like looking to Judge Judy for legal precedent. 

  7. 10 minutes ago, Idaho said:

    What about the numerous interviews with people in America who had it that are saying that it was less serious than the flu and they recovered fine? 

    What about the numerous doctors who have said it's overblown? 

    Or do you fall into the same category of people who can't be reasoned with from the other side? 

    What about the overrun hospitals in Italy, lack of ventilators, and hundreds of deaths per day. The bottom line is that holding this tournament was an irresponsible decision.

  8. 44 minutes ago, jross said:

    You get your medical advice from Dr. Drew? When you need a second opinion do you go to Dr. Phil?

  9. 18 hours ago, Cptafw164 said:

    My profession requires me to travel frequently.  I went to south Korea in November and Japan in December.  Got sick in Feb when I was in Tacoma.  I just stayed in my hotel and drank water, Gatorade and slept.  Came back and they said it was Covid.  

    It took me out for approximately 3 days.  I DID have a flu shot, so that helped because I had SOME more antibodies to help.  

    But this is complete BS and 100% political.  H1N1 didn’t cause this much hysteria.  My 3.5 year old daughter got H1N1 and she survived.  

    You are only displaying your own ignorance here. A flu vaccine provides absolutely no protection against covid-19. Why would it? They are different viruses. I’m glad you were able to recover, but maybe consider thinking about others rather than yourself. Your type of attitude is what causes people to not quarantine themselves after infection for the necessary and therefore expose others to the disease. 

  10. In a month or two, you will be able to see some sporting events start up again without fans.  So wrestling events can be possible.  What won't be possible for many months are packed gymnasiums with fans/competitors.  The only way to return to complete normalcy prior to the development of a vaccine are the following: 1.  most people get infected-thereby resulting in herd immunity, which will result in hundreds of thousand or possibly millions dying.  2.  There is a huge increase in the amount of testing and almost everyone gets tested and then quarantined, thereby completely eliminating the virus from circulation-I don't think there is the capacity to carry out testing at the scale I'm describing here.  

    For the forseeable future, large events just won't be possible.  And even though we are likely to see a decrease in cases in the coming months because of the measures presently in place and warming temperature, that will just lead to people returning to work while maintaining distance.  The entire point of the next year is to limit the rate of spread of this virus while maintaining some type functioning economy/medical system.  After the situation improves over the next couple months, nobody is going to risk going back to where we are today and will be in the next 14 days.  


    The UFC will be able to hold their events with fans in other countries with less responsible leadership and without fans in the U.S.




  11. 25 minutes ago, shieldofpistis said:

    They are scheduled in 3 weeks.  Let's see. At least they are not cancelling prematurely 

    There won’t be sporting events with fans in this country for many months. They could hold it without fans and sell ppv, but that’s it. It might actually sell a lot of ppvs though Bc every public event is canceled..but they will lose a lot of the bar ppv revenue. 

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