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Billyhoyle

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Everything posted by Billyhoyle

  1. I guarantee you that the UFC will not have any events in the US for the foreseeable future.
  2. They really didn’t cover the difference between viral recombination and genetic drift? Well, maybe you just forgot. Or possibly you took the class long enough ago that there was less focus on these types of events. Unlike calculus, the curriculum in immunology has likely been changing, so that could be a possibility.
  3. Postponing to summer of 2021 makes perfect sense. There should be a vaccine and therapeutics by then and the olympics would be a great “we are back to business as usual” moment for the world. Trying to hold a version without fans this summer would just be depressing.
  4. So the season has ended in an unprecedented manner, and I think it's clear at this point that this was the only option. Unfortunately, failures on many levels of our government, as well as governments from other countries, have caused this. It's infuriating for anybody who has a basic understanding of science to see things get this point almost in slow motion. I won't go into those details and keep this about NCAA wrestling and the specific question: what might next season look like. 1. Athletes should be given an additional semester of eligibility, and I believe prior precedent suggests this will happen. The key prior incident that relates is the Duke Lacrosse case, where Duke had their season cancelled due to false accusations. The result is that an extra year of eligibility was granted to 33 Duke players. I think the same policy will be applied to those who qualified for nationals, as well as athletes from the other sports impacted. For an organization that seems to get nothing but bad press, granting an additional semester of eligibility is a no brainer. 2. Whether or not the 2021 wrestling tournament happens is still in question, but I expect that it will. For the foreseeable future, large group gatherings simply aren't feasible. I believe that the extraordinary measures that are now finally ongoing will slow the spread of the virus, as we have seen happen in China and South Korea. The weather warming up in the coming months should also slow down the spread a bit in some parts of the country. In addition, as we get the necessary testing available (it is a very simple test technically, so I think this will happen sooner rather than later) we will get an idea of just how many people are infected and we will have the ability to more quickly identify and quarantine those who are. However, if suddenly sporting events and other group gatherings start up again and put thousands of people in the same room, it will quickly start to spread again. So what needs to happen in order for the 2021 season to happen in its typical form-with fans in attendance? Either the country needs to be able to identify every single case of the virus (unlikely given that some are asymptomatic), so many people will need to get infected between now and then that herd immunity occurs (this would be tragic and many would die), or an effective vaccine needs to be developed (the timeline for this is said to be 12-18 months, but there is a chance it is accelerated given the extaordinary circumstances). The reason that I think the season will happen though is that I think there are some promising therapeutics that may be online prior to vaccines being available (possibly as soon as the end of the year). I think as the mortality rate decreases from these interventions and preventative measures, competition will be allowed to commence again and we will get to enjoy the 2020-2021 season and NCAAs (potentially without fans in attendance at first). I wish you all the best, and I'm more optimistic today than I have been in the past couple weeks, as strange as that may seem.
  5. It’s not surprising that Harvard would do this. They don’t want their employees traveling and they’re not going to make an exception for the wrestling coaches. Athletics is a very small part of what Harvard is about.
  6. Well it depends how old you are and what your underlying medical conditions are. Just generally try to avoid crowds, work from home if you can, and don't leave your house if you start to feel sick. Also, if you are young and have elderly parents/relatives, talk to them and check up on them. Make sure they have what they need (e.g. offer to buy their groceries, pick up items for them, etc). The most important thing is to protect the people you care about while limiting the potential to spread this throughout the general public. The next 2 weeks are really going to be the critical thing that can either make this something that is just a minor change in the way we live our lives (like not being able to attend NCAAs for a year) or something that brings the entire medical system to its knees and sees an unimaginable death toll. As slow and infuriating as the initial response/lack of testing has been from the government, I am hopeful that the tide is finally turning and people will start to take the necessary precautions.
  7. Do you understand how exponential growth works?
  8. Everything depends on the next week. If it keeps spreading exponentially as it has been, it will be canceled. If the spread seems to stop, it can be held as planned without the fans. The issue is that even without fans, there will still be many people involved in the event. Even though the fans won't be there, hundreds of athletes, plus their family, coaches, trainers, referees, media, etc will all be in one location. Now, what if in the middle of the tournament a couple of people come down with a fever? What if an athlete gets sick over those three days? I'd like to see the tournament happen, but it's more complicating than getting two basketball teams together and playing a game in an empty stadium. So if 7 days from now there are 3000 positive cases instead of 1200, and it seems like there is no slowing down the spread, I doubt they will hold the tournament.
  9. By that I just meant tell them to stay home for 2 weeks after the tournament. Not like government/hospital quarantine. Most colleges are transitioning to online classes anyway. I don't want to see these guys lose their season, but I think it's important to limit the spread. But healthcare professionals don't really care much about wrestling at all and just want to do everything possible to stop the virus.
  10. Absolutely. The physicians I know and have talked to about it think it's a dumb idea to have the wrestling tournament at all, even without fans, for this reason. As a fan, I hope that they could hold it and then simply quarantine the athletes for two weeks after.
  11. You and many others, including those who actually could have done something to stop it. It was probably because of the rampant "this is no worse than the flu" misinformation that was spreading around via the government and media. And what's sad is just how predictable this was-anybody with a basic understanding of immunology understands the difference between seasonal flu and a recombined virus.
  12. I’d also consider saving the money in the short term in case the economy gets really bad from this and you find yourself unemployed.
  13. Because most people are scientifically illiterate and if people in authority tell them something they often believe it. And by authority I don't mean the physician/scientist who actually knows what he's talking about-I mean the person whose podcast an average person listens to every day or the news broadcaster the average person watches on TV (neither of whom are qualified to understand virus spreads).
  14. Yes, it is true...But somebody showing fever and other symptoms is more likely to spread it. But yeah, anyone infected can spread it.
  15. Yes, but there is a difference between having 30 people in a weight possibly exposed and thousands in the stands. Also, during skin checks you can have the on site trainer taking the temperature of individuals like they do on international flights now and barring anyone from competition who has a fever.
  16. Please stick to giving your opinions on the topics in which you are experts. Leave opinions on public health to actual scientists and physicians. It's one thing for random people on twitter or forums to give their opinions, but some people actually trust your information. It should be obvious who this is directed toward. Thank You.
  17. It’s absolutely not stalling anymore than wrestling with a staggered stance is stalling. You have the disadvantage of not being able to protect your leg.
  18. So lots of talk about a high school coach. I guess it worked for Rutgers and Virginia tech (although Dresser isn't really comparable), but it would be a very unorthodox move, especially since this seems to be a really small high school compared to Jackson/Cberg, which were nationally ranked. How about the usual suspects? Mark Perry, Metcalf, Jaggers, etc? Oregon state is kind of in the middle of nowhere, but it still should be a good job for these guys, right? Or is the salary way below what they are getting as top assistants?
  19. H1N1 had a mortality rate estimated at around .01-.08%. The mortality rate of ncov is still unknown because there has been a disgraceful lack of testing, but it's clear that the mortality rate is significantly higher than H1N1. The mortality rate for ncov is going to depend on how widely it spreads and how much stress is put on hospital systems. It's not known exactly how many people are infected but asymptomatic, which will decrease mortality rate-but if a crisis happens and suddenly the hospital are above maximum occupancy, the mortality rate will be higher than if it remains contained. Italy is a good example of what can and might go wrong with this virus, even in a developed country.
  20. So you don't like him because you think he has lied on an immigration form without having seen that form or having any evidence as to what his real age is? You really think he's being exploited by getting a free education at Ohio State? Wow, in that case, you should probably tell him personally about this whole theory of yours. He'll thank you for stoping the exploitation of him. How about you don't throw out accusations without providing the evidence? You accuse him of breaking the law, but by doing so, you are likely being libeling/defaming him.
  21. What rule did he break? The rule of moving to a different country to live a better life and seeking an education? What about that is any worse than being a member of a church? What about him is specifically different than those two.
  22. Were you complaining about Tanner Hal and Matt Brown? How can anyone not respect a guy trying to pursue education and a better life for himself. What evidence is there that your claims are actually true?
  23. Lehigh isn't in the ivy league. They care a lot more about winning the ivy league than winning the EIWA.
  24. This is a brilliant move, and a good coach sends out the wrestler who will score the most points for the team. If there happens to be a school that discriminates based on race, sex, gender, religion, etc, that's not the problem of the school receiving the forfeit.
  25. Logan Stieber, Mark Hall, and many others have done this. It's not really a secret or uncommon.
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