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andegre

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Posts posted by andegre


  1. 3 days to go!
     
    If you like using the WrestleStat comparisons, we've created a "Hub" page that will be used throughout all of Nationals this year.
     
    For each session, we'll be putting out these comparison pages, like the one linked above. Each time a new one gets released, we'll be updating this Hub page with the appropriate link.
     
    This way, you guys/gals can just bookmark a single page, and get to all the comparisons that we come up with. Should make it real easy while there so you don't have to hunt through message board posts...
     
    Here it is:
     

  2. 19 hours ago, SetonHallPirate said:

    I'm actually affected by it at 141, 149, 157, 184, and 285, for what it's worth. I wonder what weights the human rankers are affected.

    And here's his response:

     

    Quote

         To answer SHP's question, for some of the human rankers, InterMat is affected 6 times, The Open Mat 6 times and Flo 7 times. For the computers, SHP is affected 5 times and Wrestlestat is still hurt the worst at 9 times.

                Intermat at         133,157,184 twice and 285 twice = 6 Total

                The Open Mat at    133,149,157,184,197 and 285 = 6 Total

                Flo at          125, 133, 141, 149, 157, 184 and 285 = 7 Total

     

    FYI, going back over a number of past Nat'l tournaments and averaging the data, here is where the 8 placers come from:  From the quarter finals, 4 winners place.

              From the quarter finals, 2 of the 4 losers place ( 4 x 0.5 = 2 since losing Q must win 16 - Q match to place).

              From  Rd. of 16  losers, 1 places ( 8 x 0.5 cubed = 8 x 0.125 = 1 since must win 32-16, 16-16 and 16-Q).

              From  Rd. of 32  losers, 1 places (16 x 0.5 to the 4th power = 16 x 0.0625 = 1, 32-32, 32-16, 16-16 and 16-Q).

    That last section shows the significance of this....quarters 2 of 4 place, rd16 losers only 1, and rd32 only 1.


  3. Doesn't look good for WrestleStat already this year, not just because of the rankings, but how the wrestlers are SEEDED... Check out what my algorithm guy sent me explaining why we'll do poorly this year...

    Quote

    Hey Greg,

       We are in big trouble in the RTR contest.  9 times in the 10 weights, 2 of our top 8 guys meet each other in the round of 16 or 32 whereas this happens only one time for SHP.  Weight 184 looks bad also. This is serious because the chance of placing for the loser of the match is only 12.5% = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 3 wins (16-32, 16-16  16-Q ) to place in the top 8 if you lose in the Rd. of 16 and 6.25% chance to place if you lose in the Rd. of 32. See below for details:

     

         133:   Our 5 and 8, seeded 7 and 10, meet in Rd. of 16   (7+10=17)

         141:   Our 7 and 5, seeded 9 and 24, meet in Rd. of 32   (9+24=33) 

                   Our 4 and 6, seeded 3 and 14, meet in Rd. of 16   (3+14=17)

         149:   Our 6 and 8, seeded 7 and 10, meet in Rd. of 16   (7+10=17)

         157:   Our 3 and 7, seeded 3 and 14, meet in Rd. of 16   (3+14=17)

         165:   Our 6 and 8, seeded 6 and 11, meet in Rd. of 16   (6+11=17) 

         174:   Our 1 and 7, seeded 1 and 17, meet in Rd. of 16    if our # 7 seeded 17 beats 16 seed in Rd. 32 (16 +17=33)

         197:   Our 7 and 5, seeded 8 and 9  , meet in Rd. of 16    (8+9 =17)

         285:   Our 5 and 8, seeded 6 and 11, meet in Rd. of 16   (6 +11=17)

     

         184:   Our 5 meets 9th seed in Rd. of 16

                   Our 6 meets 6th seed in Rd. of 16

                   Our 7 meets 4th seed in Rd. of 16

                   Our 8 meets our 10     in Rd. of 16

     

    He's sent subsequent emails clarifying that @SetonHallPirate is affected by this same scenario at 4 different weights (149, 184, 197, 285). Will be interesting now to see how the rankings hold up, though I'm not as confident as I was previously.

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