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rpm002

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rpm002 last won the day on June 2 2017

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About rpm002

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  1. rpm002

    J. Cox Olympic Weight?

    Yep, Cox was the 8 seed. Something that people forget is that he beat ninth-seeded Clayton Foster 7-7 on criteria, so his run easily could have been over before it started. Then he beat Herbert and Gavin to get to the epic final with Dake. I still think Molinaro was by far a bigger dark horse. Especially with the advantage of knowing the bracket, a lot of people thought Cox could at least get to the finals. No one thought Molinaro could beat Metcalf or Steiber, let alone both consecutively. Once he had both of those victories, the other side of the bracket was loaded with Kennedy/Humphrey/Oliver/Pico. And then facing Pico and losing match 1, it seemed unfathomable he'd come back to win the next 2. Just an all-time shocking run that I still can't believe I saw.
  2. rpm002

    J. Cox Olympic Weight?

    57 should be nuts. Gilman, Fix, Lee, NATO, Garrett, Colon all should be right up there (although it remains to be seen how good the last two would look down at this weight). Someone like Ramos, Clark, Gross, or Graff could pull an upset or two. Madness. If we are going to see something crazy a la Molinaro (the 9 seed in 2016 at 65kg winning it all) it will be here. 65: Oliver is the favorite IMO. Zain is not far behind. Steiber can't be counted out. McKenna and Eierman could be factors if they keep improving. And maybe Green will give it another go at this weight? 74kg Burroughs vs. Dake. Think Dake will take it this time, but then again, I've said that before. IMAR, Valencia, and Dieringer are all factors too. And Green if he bumps up, but the crazy strength of this field might make him want to go down if he possibly can. 86kg Taylor will win this. 97kg Snyder vs. Cox. Gadson, Zilmer, and Walz are the next best, but don't think anyone will be able to stop the top 2 from meeting. 125kg Gwiz, Steveson, and Coon are the clear top 3 here (if Coon goes free). If I had to pick the team now, I'd guess Fix, Oliver, Dake, Taylor, Synder, and Steveson
  3. rpm002

    J. Cox Olympic Weight?

    While we're on this topic, what do Colon and Garrett do?
  4. I think yes. In addition to his bronze medal, he did beat Garrett 3 out of 5 last year, so it's not unreasonable to put him ahead of Garrett even though he lost the last 2. Also, I don't even know what Garrett's injury was, but it's probably fair to question if Garrett will be the same next year.
  5. The top of 61kg is strange: Garrett owns Mega, beat Graff this past year in a pretty close match, and has super high scoring matches vs. Colon that can go either way Colon pulls out close, low-scoring matches vs. Mega by countering Nico's shots, but got teched by Graff last year and hasn't beaten him since the first part of his senior year at UNI (I want to say Graff might have beaten him in free another time in 2015 or 2016, but not sure). Mega hasn't beaten any either of these two recently, but he did beat Graff twice, including teching him in their first of two meetings this year Then you have Gross, who hasn't beaten any of these top 4, but it would be no surprise if he jumped a level and beat any of them next year. So I wouldn't be surprised if any of those 5 win 61kg in 2019. The interesting question is what they all do in 2020. I think Mega can clearly go down to try 57kg. Graff has had success there too, but that was under the old weigh-in rules. I think the rest might try to do the same, but have bigger frames, so I'm worried they are caught between weights and don't really have a good Olympic year option.
  6. rpm002

    61kg Discussion

    So Colon goes straight to final X next year.... The fact that he lost at final X this year doesn't matter, right?
  7. rpm002

    True 3rd matches

    And then in 2020, one would assume Colon, Garrett, Mega, and Graff will all come back down as well...
  8. rpm002

    Lehigh Final X

    Everything I've read refers to it as 1 match and that's what it has always been in the past. For example, see here: https://iawrestle.com/2018/05/31/tony-ramos-will-attempt-to-make-fifth-mens-freestyle-national-team/ says some variant of "the true third place match" 7 times.
  9. rpm002

    Next Final X

    I think it will either be Dake in 2 or Zahid in 3. Dake has the more unique style. If Valencia figures out how to take 1 match, he'll win a second one too.
  10. rpm002

    Coaching Gilman vs Coaching Fix

    I think this is part of the reason why Megaludis had some success against Gilman? (not at WTT last year but prior to that)
  11. rpm002

    Coaching Gilman vs Coaching Fix

    To me, both Gilman/Fix matches looked a lot like Gilman/Graff last year: The opponent who works well from space and is used to putting up a lot of points just couldn't get Gilman out of position. Gilman stuffed shots and used his strength to hold his opponent in close for long stretches of time and picked his spots to get what he needed to win.
  12. 1) Taylor - Similar styles, but Taylor is several levels better 2) Green - There is no way you beat someone as dynamic as Green wrestling such a defensive style... Frank could have made this fairly interesting... oh well. 3) Synder - I actually give Gadson a puncher's chance of winning 1 match, but no way Synder loses twice 4) Burroughs - There is some point in the not-too-distant future where IMar will be able to beat Burroughs. I don't think we are there yet, but I wouldn't say I'm completely certain of that. 5) Cox - Could probably swap 4 and 5, honestly. I am higher on Zillmer than most, but I don't see how he scores enough to win this. 6) Steiber - Big drop off from 5 to 6, but I do like Steiber's chances here. 7) Garrett - The progression here was Colon won by tech, then Garrett was up 6 but wrestled stupid and lost, so I think he'll figure out what he needs to do to win 2 out of 3 here...? 8) Dake - This should be sort of like Colon/Garrett 1 where the explosive wrestler goes against the best chest wrap he's ever seen and doesn't know how to respond, so he loses. But if Dake loses one of the first two, he should be nervous... 9) Fix - Pretty much a toss up, so going with my gut 10) Coon - same.
  13. rpm002

    Senior World Team

    Meant to say 35% for 65. Not much higher, but a bit and worth noting since it was the only one in that direction. I would say there are a few of the better wrestlers that I would bump up 5% or so on the day of weigh-ins at Worlds.... looking at it today, there is injury risk and a chance of a big upset at Final X that I am pricing in.
  14. rpm002

    Senior World Team

    I think the original post odds are mostly too high... crazy stuff happens with officiating, injuries, etc. and there are tons of good wrestlers in the world. Also, the repechage introduces more randomness. For example, if Synder gets upset in the quarters and the guy who beat him has Sadulaev in the semis, Snyder is very unlikely to medal. 57kg: 20% - I still think medalling last time was mostly due to a very kind draw. 61kg: 15% - Would need a great draw to have a chance. 65kg: 20% - Not as down on this one as you.... Steiber can beat anyone 70kg: 65% 74kg: 75% 79kg: 50% 86kg: 70% 92kg: 50% 97kg: 85% 125kg: 50%
  15. rpm002

    World Team

    First impressions: Fix - Probably goes 3, but think Fix's pace will win in the end. Garrett - hope so as he is more of a medal threat. Colon is not a good match up for him but if he wrestles smart, he should win 2 of 3 Steiber - too much offense Green - Frank would have been a more interesting match up.. Oh well. Burroughs - really curious about this one as IMar is so talented, but if Jordan lost this in front of his home crowd it would be an all-time shocking upset. Valencia - I thought he'd lose a couple of 5-3 type matches against Ringer, so this may be an overreaction about how good he looked today. Dake will be tougher, but if he is smart about how he picks his spots, he can pull this one off too. Taylor - kudos to Reenan for getting this far, but yeah, this won't be close Cox - love Zillmer but don't think he'll be able to mount much more offense than he did last time he faced Cox. Snyder - no surprise pins here Coon - another one that I need to think about more as it could be an overreaction, but think Coon will manage just enough offense to squeak out 2 wins
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