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Posts posted by rpm002

  1. this weight might be hard to qualify, does anyone know how many guys can go to the pan am qualifier or is there no limit? if our guys end up on the same side of the bracket as bonne, i don't think i would be confident in them winning it, (you have to make the finals to qualifiy) Pineda from canada is no slouch either, not to mention that some of the other central and south american wrestlers have been getting better recently. if unfortunetly this gets to the last chance qualifiers, theres no predicting what will happen, those tournaments will prob be even harder.  86 may be a challenge as well in dallas. 

    Very good point.  I'm pretty sure for Pan Am, Last Chance #1, and Last Chance #2, each nation can only send 1 athlete.  I would assume that would be Ramos to Pan Am and whoever wins the spot at Trials to the other 2 (if needed).


    I think the big question would be if Pan Am has a True 2nd where if the finals loser wrestles against whoever comes back for 3rd place if they haven't met.  If so, then I would like our chances.  If not, then you are right... we are kind of at the mercy of the bracketing... if Ramos and Bonne wind upon the same side, that would be tough.

  2. Scott and Dennis impressed me yesterday.  Will be interesting to see if Ramos gets beat. 


    Ramos is obviously the most likely individual to win, but if the choice were Ramos vs the field, I think I'd take the field.


    It is well known that Ramos is undefeated against US wrestlers in Senior Freestyle.  Here are his results against every US wrestler of note:


    Colon (6-4, 6-0, 3-1)

    Hazenwinkel (4-0, 5-4)

    Simmons (4-0)

    Hochstrasser (7-3)

    Mitcheff (9-5)

    Escabedo (2-0)

    Megaludis (1-0)

    Cejudo (exh, 10-8)


    While this is a pretty impressive list of wins and being undefeated against this group shows remarkable consistency, it is worth noting that only 1 of these 11 matches was decided by more than 4 points (and Ramos was losing with just seconds left in at least a couple of them... Hoch and Cejudo for sure).  It feels like if you wrestle so many close matches, you are leaving yourself vulnerable to 1 slip or call that doesn't go your way putting you in trouble.  Also, based on the expected seeding above, it is interesting Ramos has never faced any of his top 3 competitors (Graff, Dennis, Scott) for the 57kg Rio spot in freestyle.  


    I'd put the odds of winning this spot at something like this:


    Ramos 40%

    Graff 15%

    Dennis 10%

    Scott 10%

    Haze 10%

    Other 15%


    So Ramos is the favorite, but more than half the time, someone knocks him off.

  3. For the guys who are in, I think the seeds would be:


    1) Ramos

    2) Graff

    3) Dennis

    4) Scott

    5) Haze

    6) Colon

    7) Escobedo

    8) Tomasello

    9) Tadzhimetov


    The top 6 seeds seem very clear to me... it would be hard to argue for a different order.  You could move around 7-9 in any order and make a case for it.  If you give more weight to the qualifier, Tadz pinned Escobedo, so he could be higher.  But taking into account all that Escobedo has accomplished (especially being the last American to beat Graff), I think he deserves to be higher.


    Sanders, Naser, Blanc, Mitcheff, Micic, Morrison, Waters, Hutter, Abas, McD, and Hochstrasser are all out as of now, but a couple of them will ultimately make the field.



  4. It was interesting how they were willing to deviate very far from the rankings to come up with these seeds.  The example that jumps out is Dennis #1 vs Sanders #9, when in the rankings, Sanders was higher.  I tend to think Dennis > Sanders is right (Sanders was only ranked higher because he placed 2nd at Farrell vs 3rd for Dennis, but Dennis was on the much tougher side of the bracket), but Dennis over Colon, Escobedo, and Scott is very interesting.  Dennis beat Scott 8-6 in their most recent meeting, but Scott teched him at the US Open shortly before that.  I guess the fact that Dennis proved something that this weight by looking good at Farrell swayed them to put him higher.  I would have gone Colon, Escobedo, Scott, Dennis as my top 4 at 57, but it is not an easy call.

  5. At 57kg, the only name I'm surprised I don't see is Matt McDonough.  Ramos and Graff aren't there, but that's to be expected given they are already qualified.


    Here's who you do have:


    Colon (ranked #2)

    Escabedo (ranked #3)

    Sanders (ranked #5, #2 at Farrell)

    Dennis (ranked #6, #3 at Farrell)

    Nasar (ranked #8. #4 at Farrell)

    Tomasello (ranked #9, tied for #5 at Farrell)

    Blanc (ranked #10, tied for #7 at Farrell)

    Mitcheff (ranked #11, tied for #5 at Farrell)

    Micic (ranked #12, tied for #9 at Farrell, only one to even come close to Graff)

    Perrelli (tied for #7 at Farrell)

    Waters (tied for #9 at Farrell)

    Hochstrasser (closest Ramos has come to losing to an American)

    Pataky (made 2015 trials)

    Kjar, Morrison, and Hutter are solid

    Oh yeah, and Scott and Abas.


    That's 18 solid guys.  Top 7 sounds generous, but there are going to be some very strong guys who don't make it.  

  6. http://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Rankings/US-Senior-Rankings/FS/Individual/2015/December/4/USA-Wrestling-Mens-Freestyle-Rankings-December-2015


    Some initial thoughts:


    57: Sanders at 5 seems way too  high... just going off of his 2nd place at Farrell but not taking into account he was on the easier side of the bracket.  Scott at 7 is probably low, but I guess until we know how he does with his cut, it is hard to know.  Perrelli has a gripe about not being ranked considering he just beat Micic and has a win over supposedly #5 Sanders at Northern Plains this year.


    65: Wow 1-7 is stacked.  Leaving out Kulchytsky altogether seems harsh.


    74:  Don't see anything crazy here.  After the top 5, this weight doesn't seem as deep, but with Taylor and Dake leaving, I suppose that is to be expected


    86:  Lots of depth, but unless Ruth makes a jump, probably weaker at the top than some of the others.  Rankings seem reasonable.


    97: You know that if Gadson is 12, then this is a pretty deep weight.


    125:  Don't see anything I would dispute.  I feel like in 3-6, any could beat any other on a good day and there is a pretty big drop off after those top 6.



  7. I'm not sure that is totall


    There was conversation indicating that Barry Davis didn't help things in this regard and it's my guess that had some work gone into working through how to handle that pressure, a different end may have came about. I wonder often how much work is placed around the country in helping wrestlers handle the mental/emotional side of things. I think there'd be far different outcomes at the NCAA's if they did. 


    I'm not sure if this is totally fair.  Graff won some tough, clutch matches at Wisconsin too.... tight wins over guys like Fanthrope and Hutter to win Midlands his freshman year.  Beat Ramos with a take-down in overtime in the Big Ten semis his sophomore year and won a tight QF matchup at NCAAs that year and another one his junior year.  And of course the huge win in the NCAA semis over #1 seeded Colon his senior year.  He sure seemed to handle the pressure just fine in those matches!


    I do agree he has probably gotten better on his "mental game" since college, but I think he's gotten better on every front since college.

  8. Graff was also really really good on top early on, that skillset kind of went away and he also had major liabilities on bottom.  Always found it weird so he seemingly got much worse on top and bottom as his career went along. 


    I don't know if that is really true.  Graff had quite a few TF4 wins where he got no back points throughout his career at Wisconsin.  I just think Colon (who Graff faced 3 times, all his senior year) is ridiculously good on top and bottom and that skews people's perception of Graff.  Come to think of it, Ramos is too.  Remember, Ramos beat Graff twice their senior year, but never took Graff down in either match.  A freestyle matchup between those two would be epic.


    One other note about Graff... at 58.6KG, he was tied for the lightest 57kg (+2) wrestler at Farrell.

  9. 57...wow. Definitely worth the price of admission.  I guess we'll see where a lot of these guys stand.
















    Add Dennis, Tomesello, Hutter, Perrelli, and Cortez to the list.  So stacked.


    I believe Colon won this tournament at 57kg last year, right?  Anyone know if he plans to enter?  What about Matt McD?

  10. I was thinking about this more and this is a good example of what makes wrestling a crazy sport.


    McDonough was 1 point away from teching Colon.  If he does that, he faces Escabedo who he recently beat 6-2 and a win there would have put him against Ramos.  Doubtful he wins that, but even if he doesn't, he is on the National team for the 2nd straight year and is seen as the clear #2 at 57.


    Instead, he gives up the comeback to Colon, gets routed by Graff (who he just beat a few weeks prior), and rather than viewed as #2, he is viewed as being on the outside looking in of a 12 wrestler field. 

  11. Here's a non-troll, real question and proposed answer about draws.


    What's the worst draw for a given individual? 


    Proposed Answer (forgive me if this is obvious or obviously wrong): an early round match with someone who can beat you with people who can likely beat him nearby so that you don't get pulled into repechage. 



    If your goal is the win bronze, that is the worst draw.  If your goal is to win gold, then facing the top guy in round 1 (with many other difficult challenges in the subsequent rounds if you somehow survive) is the worst.

  12. IMO, 57 is not that bad now and will only get better next year.  Ramos is very solid with room to continue to improve and there is a good mix of experience (Simmons and Angel) and youth (Colon, Graff, Hoch) behind him.  


    On a somewhat related note, I am sad that we haven't gotten to see Graff vs Ramos or Colon in freestyle.  Graff has swept Simmons, split with Angel, split with McD, and beaten some decent international guys (I think he's the only American to beat Syuryun, and that includes Haze in his prime)... will be interesting to see when he crosses paths with those two... seems like it is just a matter of time.  Not that he'd be the favorite, but if you told me Ramos dropped a match to an American in the next year, I'd guess that Graff was probably the guy who beat him.

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