this thread became incredibly analytical, however, I think there's a slightly more scientific and simple approach to take. Instead of the 25% chance application, let's take those three frosh:
* What % chance do you believe that he will be Garrett? How about Waters? How about Gilman?
* Keep in mind, he'll have to do it consecutively.
* Suppose it's 25% chance on two of those guys... isn't the forumla 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625?, Or, a 6.25% chance?
* What are the chances he beats Sulzer? Moreno? Dieringer?
* Consecutive is key here
* Suppose 50% on Sulzer, and 10% on Dieringer
* Math works out to .50*10 = .05 or 5%
Not going any further on this, but the chances, given the weight classes, are pretty darn slim (amongst the tOSU frosh's).
Just watched it again, with slow motion. I counted about 7 kicks. Most were to the shoulders and back, and some were glancing, or could be more like pushes. But 2 were clearly kicks to the neck and back of head. The announcers commented on Telford "getting kicked in the head," once live, and again as they showed the replay. After the match, you could see Telford's shoulder looked discolored, presumeably bruised.
While admittedly an Iowa fan, I can honestly say, I didn't like when Jeva kicked, and had no problem with him being penalized. But Jeva's was nothing like what McMullen did. McMullen should've been penalized, and the ref blew it.
They are trying their best to not have the Dardanes burn out. Vacationing in Hawaii & sitting out every other dual, even J Rob has a gut feeling these guys are going to flame out by the end of the year.