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kionga

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  1. It would be a shame if Silva did not make it. I think he is definitely one of the top 33 133-pounders right now. I still have hopes for his chances because only 3 wrestlers who won AQs at that weight lost their spots according to SetonHallPirate's website.
  2. Just wondering which Big Ten wrestlers will make the NCAA tournament as at large selections. Forum members have predicted Evan Wick and Caleb Young. Specifically, I am wondering about the 3 Michigan wrestlers who finished 1 spot behind the Automatic Qualification allotment. Joey Silva (133), Cole Mattin (141), and Jackson Striggow (197).
  3. I hope Michigan has a much better session than they had for session 2.
  4. For the general Big 10 fan, I think you have captured all the major points. However, as a Michigan fan, I will be watching all their matches. They have a lot of wrestlers on the cusp of qualifying or not for the NCAA tournament. Can guys like Joey Silva, Cole Mattin, Jelani Embree, and Jackson Striggow place one or two spots above their preseeds and gain an automatic qualifier spot? Can Jack Medley and Will Lewan wrestle as they did in the regular season? There is a lot for me to look forward to aside from the marquis match-ups.
  5. Michigan I graduated from U of M. My wife graduated from U of M, where we met. My eldest son, who wrestled for Canton high school, went to U of M. I started following Wolverine wrestling about 6 years ago when Alec Pantaleo made the starting line-up as a true freshman. Alec wrestled for Canton high school with my youngest son.
  6. One fact that is not being acknowledged in the above conversations is that total points scored in the tournament determine team placement, including who makes the podium. If the ninth or tenth place finisher in the Big 10 tournament qualifies for the national tournament and wins a match or two, their contributions to team placement could be significant even though they did not have a realistic chance of finishing top eight.
  7. As far as who is selected for a national tournament, and where they are seeded, there will always be controversy no matter what method is used. I get the impression that conference affiliation is an important aspect of college athletics and I can't envision a conference administrator or college president wanting to eliminate conference championships regardless of the sport.
  8. 1) Why does the NCAA tournament enter 33 wrestlers per weight? This seems "dumb", and purely theatrical. 2) Why does wrestling have automatic qualifier allotments for each conference? It would seem a better model would be to follow the D1 football playoff format; have a committee rank wrestlers 1 -32 (or 1-33 if they keep that dumb extra spot) after the end of the regular season, then again after conference tournaments. Use the final committee ranking as the seeding for the National tournament.
  9. As a Michigan fan, I was hoping that the Wolverines would qualify at least 8 wrestlers to the national tournament. Now that the Big Ten dual season is over, that number looks like a stretch. After examining the various Big Ten rankings, the number of BIG wrestlers with top 33 RPI, and last year's BIG allocations, this is how I see their chances. One sure thing: Mason Parris (285) Two highly likely: Kanen Storr (149) and Will Lewan (157) One better than 50:50: Jack Medley (125) Three longshots, but not unreasonable: Joey Silva (133), Cole Mattin (141), and Jelani Embree (184) Three little to no shot: Reece Hughes (165), Max Maylor (171), and Jackson Striggow (197) I would be disappointed, but not shocked, if Michigan only had 4 national qualifiers.
  10. I agree that 125 is totally up in the air after Lee. According to the latest Coach's poll and RPI, 9 are ranked in the top 33 poll and 7 in the top 33 RPI. I could envision the Big 10 getting 8 automatic qualifiers and 1 or 2 at large bids.
  11. Well, Illinois wins 2 of the 3 toss-ups, 125 and 184, and win the dual 20-13.
  12. On paper, this is looking to be a tightly contested dual. Wrestlestat has Michigan winning 18-16. I jotted down what I thought and it ended up 17-17. Below are some thoughts with the Coaches' rankings in parentheses. 125) Cardani (26) vs Medley (33) seems to be a toss-up. Cardani is ranked higher in every poll I have seen him in, but I think Medley can win this one. 133) Piotrowski (8) vs Silva (NR) would seem to be lopsided in favor of Illinois. Interestingly, Wrestlestat has Piotrowski winning a close one, with he and Silva both 3-0 against common opponents. 141) Duncan (13) vs Mattin (33). I think this will be closer than the rankings would suggest; Illinois by decision. 149) Jodeh (NR) vs Storr (8). Storr major decision. 157) Barone (NR) vs Lewan (10). Another match closer than the rankings indicate; Lewan by decision. 165) Braunagel (13) vs Hughes, or Meisinger, or Van Anrooy (NR). Illinois wins by major. 174) Gunther (13) vs Maylor (NR). Bonus for the Fighting Illini, but how much? 184) Braunagel (14) vs Embree (13) will be one of the swing matches. Braunagel seems to be wrestling better than Embree right now. 197) Wroblewski (NR) vs Striggow (NR). Another toss-up. 285) Luffman (31) vs Parris (2). Bonus for Michigan here, but how much? With so many toss-up matches, and a few that promise to have bonus point potential, this should be very entertaining.
  13. With the score tied 17-17, Jack Medley gets a 3-2 win over Michael DeAugustino to win the dual for Michigan. He is having a very nice year so far. Hopefully Michigan can get Jelani Embree and Reece Hughes back on track.
  14. The Maryland topic also got me thinking; what does it mean to be in the middle tier of the Big Ten? If you have a middle tier, it implies you have an upper and lower tier as well. With 14 teams, I would think the upper and lower tiers would contain 4 teams each, leaving 6 in the middle tier. I tried to generate some meaningful metrics, combining both dual meet records and Big Ten tournament placements, but since dual meet schedules do not include all big ten opponents, and non-conference schedules are so variable in strength of schedule, including dual meet records was not justifiable. I defaulted to NCAA tournament placement over the past 5 years. Below is how things shake out. Data presented as Team, NCAA placement 2019-2015, (mean placement). Top Tier: Penn State: 1, 1, 1, 1, 6 (2) Consistently best in the nation, 2015 was an outlier. Ohio State: 2, 2, 2, 3, 1 (2) Right up there with Penn State, especially given that in two of those years, Ohio State beat Penn State for the Big Ten Championship Iowa: 4, 3, 4, 5, 2 (3.6) Consistently in podium potential, but not quite championship caliber (this year will change that) Michigan: 5, 4, 10, 9, 11 (7.8) Consistently top ten, with some threat to reach the podium (this year will be an outlier because of olympic red shirts) Middle Tier: Nebraska: 10, 9, 9, 8, 9 (9) Consistently top ten, but not a threat to reach the podium. very consistent program. Minnesota: 8, 17, 7, 17 ,8 (11.4) Top ten every other year Illinois: 26, 13, 11, 9, 12 (14.2) Generally just outside the top ten. Was last year an outlier, or is Illinois regressing? Rutgers: 9, 11, 19, 15, 31 (17) Nice trend of improvement over the past 5 years Wisconsin: 21, 17, 13, 23, 17 (18.2) Fairly consistent performance over the past 5 years Northwestern: 22, 24, 46, 50, 15 (31.4) Disastrous years in 2016 and 2017, but clearly improving under Coach Storniolo Bottom Tier: Purdue: 29, 28, 50, 41, 42 (38) Consistently outside the top 25, but seems to be trending up Maryland: 27, 27, 35, 64, 39 (38.4) Consistently outside the top 25 Indiana: 53, 55, 35, 28, 24 (39) Pretty significant regression from 2015 through 2019 Michigan State: 33, 65, 41, 69, 69 (55.4) Worst program in Division 1 for three of those years. Definitely trending up What does it mean to be Middle Tier of the Big Ten? Based solely on NCAA tournament results, I would say consistently finishing in the top 25 and occasionally finishing top 10.
  15. Michigan's twitter feed now has an interview with Tyler Meisinger about the bout and shows the action leading to the fall. No wonder I didn't see the interference live. https://twitter.com/umichwrestling
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