The Genius

I got my wish after all

Gwiz easily beat Mason Parris in US trials and will be the US rep at 125kg in Oslo next month. That's a shame but basically means Zare is all but guaranteed at least a Bronze. Cox v Ghasempour is the dream 92kg match up, have to favour Cox to win that.

If that's the case, I change my 86kg prediction to Silver. I don't see him not making the final if he can avoid DT until then.

At 67kg the top guys off the top of my head are Borrero Surkov El-Sayed Stabler Nemes Ryu and Geraei. Surkov looked very bad in Tokyo, El-Sayed should lose to Geraei most times, Stabler has retired I think, Geraei can beat Nemes, Geraei consistently beats Ryu who is quite old now. So I think Geraei has a very good chance to medal and if Borrero isn't there then he has a shot at gold too. Also 67kg at worlds is weaker than at the Olympics, because at the Olympics you'll get 63kg/72kg guys moving into 67kg whereas they don't need to do that at worlds.

GR: 55kg: DNP (but I hope it is Dehbozorgi and not Abbaspour that goes, maybe small chance at Bronze although he's only 18) 60kg: DNP 63kg: DNP 67kg: Gold (if Borrero isn't going, otherwise Silver / Bronze) 72kg: DNP 77kg: Bronze 82kg: DNP 87kg: DNP 97kg: Silver / Bronze (depending on draw, assuming Evloev is going) 130kg: Bronze

FS: 57kg: DNP 61kg: Bronze 65kg: DNP 70kg: DNP (small chance of Bronze) 74kg: DNP 79kg: DNP 86kg: Silver / Bronze (depending on draw) 92kg: Silver / Bronze (depending on draw) 97kg: Bronze 125kg: Gold

Pretty strong but very young squad. 4 medals should be the expected result, more than that would be an achievement. Something between 3 bronze and 1 gold 2 silver 1 bronze would be normal. Most excited to see Amouzad, Elahi, Yazdani, Ghasempour and Zare. Don't really care about Goleij but he can't do worse than his last performance at worlds lol

Who are the favourites to win 125kg in the US?

DT had an interview and he said he expected Yazdani to wrestle more conservatively this time, and that he worked a lot on not allowing any go behinds. DT also struggled to score on this new Yazdani, so it goes both ways. Did you see Gazzaev? Lol he looks barely human. And that was in 2019 Zare was only 18 at the time and only lost 2-3 to a massive and much older Gazzaev, I don't think it's fair to still hold that against him. Gazzaev also won some 2021 qualification tournament in Russia too btw. There could always be a guy that beats him, sure - I hope we get to see Parris v Zare II at Oslo.

It was only fun speculation about who could be the first double gold medalist. Well for the 2016 Olympics most of the medalists were already in their late 20s, here the oldest medalist was actually Yazdani at 26, so more of these guys are likely to potentially compete in 2024.

That seems overly pessimistic to me. How many 34 year old Olympic champions do we get at those middle weights? Naifonov is only 24 and it seems unlikely that a new Russian will emerge ready to dethrone Yaz/DT by 2024

Knowing how close their last match was and how DT will be 33/34 in Paris, you still wouldn't give Yaz a 50%+ chance? Zare is limited I agree, but SHW is very weak without Gable and with a past it Taha. Zare is only 20 so you'd hope he has time to game plan better and add more ways to win. Iran does have a lot of strong young 125kg guys though so that's a fair point. Geno right now is probably better but can he beat a 23 yo Zare with a better game plan at the age of 30? Maybe he can but Zare definitely has a shot there, especially after how their first two matches went.

Yes, I agree with that. Of course Yazdani and Geraei have much more chance than the rest, but a 7.5% chance is still not bad. Maybe Taha retires and Zare easily beats Geno at Oslo and again next year, then the numbers can change. But right now I don't object to your numbers. I was just curious who else others thought had a reasonable chance (even if it's a low chance).

That's why I put Yazdani and Geraei as #1 and #2 Very very low odds for a random person sure, but for guys who are young and already elite and near the top, like Zare and Saravi? Still very low but not that low, in my opinion.

As we know, no Iranian wrestler has ever won two Olympic gold medals. Who is most likely to be the first? Just for fun, in my opinion, these guys have the best chance: 1. Hassan Yazdani (26 yo) - His biggest competitor is obviously DT (although Naifonov is only 24 and could improve). DT will be 33/34 in Paris and Yazdani will be 29, meaning time is on Yazdani's side. The gap is closing and Hassan has shown he can keep it close with a good gameplan. I think Yazdani has a good chance to be the first Iranian to win 2 Olympic gold medals in wrestling (at least 40-50% chance). 2. Mohammad Reza Geraei (25 yo) - also 1 Gold away and can achieve this in Paris 2024 (will be 28 yo). Assuming he stays at 67kg, the field is quite weak: Stabler (3x world champ) will be retired so the main competitors will possibly be Surkov (will be 29/30 and has shown he is beatable), Borrero (will be 32 and near the end of his career), El-Sayed and Aslanyan. I don't think Geraei has lost a match since 2019 so he can beat any of those guys, although he has a lot of random losses and not many wins against the elite guys and GR is inherently less predictable, so I give Geraei a 10-20% chance. 3. Amir Zare (20 yo) - he will be 23 in Paris 2024 and 27 in LA 2028 (and 31 for 2032 Olympics). Of the non-gold-medalists Zare is the most accomplished and is in a weaker weight division and has good experience for his age. Taha will be 33 by 2024 and appears to not be the same guy any more, Gable has retired from wrestling so this potentially leaves Geno (will be 30 in Paris) as Zare's main obstacle to Olympic gold. They have had 2 close matches so far (Zare was easily beating Geno via pushouts until he unexpectedly gassed) and I think a 23 yo Zare can defeat a 30 yo Geno, I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Geno in Oslo next month. At this time, I give him 30-40% chance of Gold at Paris but 2028 is obviously too far out to predict. 4. Mohammad Hadi Saravi (22 yo) - will be 25 in Paris and 29 in LA. Aleksanyan will be 32/33 and is suffering from injuries, so I am not sure he will be at Paris. The biggest threat and clear no.1 is Musa Evloev, who will be 31 at Paris. Age is probably Saravi's best hope of dethroning Evloev, who has looked a level above everyone else since 2018. Then there are younger guys like Melia and Szoke who are good prospects. Saravi is my personal favourite GR wrestler but I will be realistic and give him a 20-30% chance of Gold at Paris. [Of course GR may not even be a part of the 2028 Olympics!] 5. After those guys it becomes far more speculative. Here you have guys like Amouzad Firouzpour and various other guys in the 17-21 age range who it's not worth speculating about yet.