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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. How much of the real concern (as opposed to easy partisan sniping - guilty) is because it made for bad TV, while being good strategy? If this was a streaming only event, would people be so up in arms?
  2. So false. Marinelli digging double underhooks is him taking a shot. His shots are upper body. Ask Amine. The second Amine felt that second hook coming, his ass dropped and he peddled hard backward. Vincenzo Joseph is about the only guy who didn't back out of that position. And even he had mixed results.
  3. How did you know my nickname was "Tasteless"?
  4. Who is keeping a running total of what you were wrong about? I admit I can't keep up.
  5. Is that a lot for this kind of tourney? I genuinely don't have a sense of what is normal.
  6. That's 1.609 Kilometer Amine to you.
  7. MFFs absolutely = excuses said the guy with no ACLs.
  8. I just got done watching the Brands special on B1G where Tom is at halftime of the football game yelling "we will wrestle anyone, anytime, any place*" *as long as that time and place is not a B1G final
  9. This seems far more likely than booing Lee. Spent some time on HR just now. There is a whole lotta Lee love going on over there, and not just the Spencer type.
  10. You guys have it all wrong. That was Dan Gable in the stands calling stalling on his own guy.
  11. With four defending champs and a title contender at a fifth weight, PSU is most likely to benefit from an expanded bracket. Then there is the issue of performance relative to seed. In the past ten tournaments: Iowa has had 92 wrestlers with 52 (56.5%) finishing at or better than their seed. Michigan has had 78 wrestlers with 43 (55.1%) finishing at or better than their seed. PSU has had 89 wrestlers with 62 (69.7%) finishing at or better than their seed. And this is in spite of the fact that Iowa and PSU have started with higher average seeds, making it more difficult to improve:
  12. When I have time tonight or tomorrow I will put together some analysis based on recent history. @BerniePragle and I just finished inputting the last 10 years of brackets. I will see if I can answer your question.
  13. Small bracket compression is a thing. I don't think they have what it takes to win in a large bracket.
  14. Not at all. I was not meaning to damn with faint praise. My wife was coming back to the table so I had to be quick. Police blotter, victims, thieves. It all works.
  15. I see enough variance across teams that I will be adjusting for that too. Stay tuned
  16. There is a single change from the pre-seeds. Tony Fisher NU moves from 8 to 7 at 174 while Gerritt Nijenhuis PUR drops from 7 to 8. Not sure it matters for either guy as 7 is looking at Massa in quarters and 8 is looking at Starocci. Do you think Mark Manning argued to drop Fisher down or Tony Ersland argued to move Nijenhuis up a spot?
  17. And Chad Red get two more. The NCAA loves them Indiana boys.
  18. Good news. They gave Nick Lee 3 more years of eligibility.
  19. This one's for you @Billyhoyle. You wanted to know the relative scoring potential by seed. Something to keep in mind: There is 10 years of data for seeds 1-12 There is 7 years of data for seeds 13-16 There is 2 years of data for seeds 17-32 The Unseeded category varies in size accordingly Note: For placements below 1 and 2 there are multiple paths to the placement, therefore I took the average of the highest and lowest advancement point paths. What does it mean? While the potential spread between a 1 and a 2 seed is 4 team points, over the last ten years it has only been worth 3.26 team points. The spread from 4 to 3 is larger than excepted (-1.46 vs -1 expected). The 7 and 8 seeds are a near push in realized value, but a full team point different in expected value. The 9 - 12 seeds should be of equal value, but the 12 really struggles in actual points, trailing the others by ~1. It is also noteworthy that the 9 - 16 seeds all outperform the expected value (I wouldn't put much stock in the 17 and lower seeds).
  20. why ya gotta be so Mean?
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