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Wrestleknownothing

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Everything posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. The following year is when he beat Coon, sure, but it is also the year Cassar beat him on two seperate occassions with time in between for strategic adjustments. My point was not, and is not, to minimize Steveson in any way. I believe he is an all time great. My point was to argue against the view that Cassar's two wins should be minimized in any way. Some seem to want to start today viewing Steveson's obvious greatness and then draw a line just after his last losses and say before that line is irrelevant, but after the line matters. I am saying the choice of where to draw the line is arbitrary.
  2. I believe it is five. Three times in freestyle: twice to Nick Gwiazdowski at Final X in 2019 and to Rakhimov the Medved Final in 2019 Two times in folkstyle: both times to Anthony Cassar (B1G final and NCAA semifinal) in 2019
  3. Because when you start to list exceptions and noting that things vary by ref, then the rule looks more like randomness with some cherry picked examples. Not that I am innocent on the cherry picked examples. On a side note, boy did this thread go sideways while I was away.
  4. I defer to Lyle Lovett on the topic: That's right you're not from Texas That's right you're not from Texas That's right you're not from Texas But Texas wants you anyway
  5. You are correct. Per his Wiki: Nickal was born in Rifle, Colorado but moved to Wyoming at a young age, where he started wrestling around five or six years old. In fifth grade, he moved to Rio Rancho, New Mexico. Nickal made the varsity high school team while in the eighth grade and placed second at the state tournament that same season ('09-'10).[9] As a freshman, he moved once again, now to Allen High School in Texas, placing second in the state as well.[10] He won every state championship he competed in since his sophomore year, becoming a three-time UIL title holder.
  6. Oh, it exists to varying degrees in some sports, but to call the Carver Effect something as plain Jane as a simple home court advantage is a bit of an insult to its mythology.
  7. I will sell you a Cael Sanderson NFT. In fact I will sell you an NFT on anything. My immutable ledger is an excel spreadsheet on my computer, though. Hopefully, that's not a problem.
  8. I voted for the double boots in, but only in the case where the top wrestler also gets both arms stretched forward. It effectively immobilizes the bottom guy. And quite frankly makes me feel a bit claustrophobic. And I'm not even claustrophobic.
  9. By the way, I will be at Carver again for the PSU / Iowa dual this year. Can we start calling it a Wrestleknownothing effect?
  10. I am arguing against the Carver effect (rather than for PSU). You can't have it both ways. You can't say that the Kemerer/Hall match is an example of the Carver effect, but the RBY/DeSanto and Assad/Brooks matches don't count. If there was a Carver effect it would apply in all cases. Why didn't the Carver effect help Happel keep it to a MD or regular decision rather than a tech (and who are we kidding? it was a pin)? I just think the Carver effect is not really a thing.
  11. Born in CO, raised in Texas and started wrestling there. 3x Texas HS champ.
  12. Bo Nickal says he wants to meet out back.
  13. To the contrary, it is a completely genuine argument. And it is why most people are very bad at picking stocks. They repeat mistakes because they find it nearly impossible to go back to a state of mind when they did not know something. The cure is to enforce the discipline of writing down your investment thesis before investing. Then you can check the accuracy of your a priori thinking ex post. The good news is with the search function on this website we can know exactly what the consensus thinking was before the dual meet. In this way we can know who were thought to be toss ups before the meet (just as you are attempting to asses favorites before this year's meet). It is disingenuous to claim that RBY/DeSanto was not considered a toss up going in just because you know what the ultimate result was, particularly since the last data points we all had prior to that match up were DeSanto wins by 5 at NCAAs and by 4 at Big 10s. While I appreciate you attempting to argue your point with an irrelevant tangent, the proper question is what was the point spread going into the Georgia vs. Clemson game? You can not define what is thought to be a toss up before the game by observing the results after the game. The whole point here is you are criticizing a prediction, which definitionally means you do not yet know the result.
  14. While I appreciate you turning up the volume and spelling your punctuation, you are just using confirmation bias. The reality is that before we knew what we knew after the match, Brooks and RBY were considered toss ups. Try reading the statements from before, since you can't forget what you know after.
  15. * I got one thing wrong when I said 133, 157, 165, 184. It should have been 133, 165, 174, 184. That said... End of year results cannot be used to define a toss up prior to the result occurring. I was going by predictions made in the thread PRIOR to the match. Everything after the match creates biases that did not exist prior. Examples from that thread: 133: This match is really a toss-up. It always has been a tossup when the Desanto gas tank hasn't broken RBY. With that said, RBY seems improved this year too with better go's. Based on Desanto's motor and history, this is still Desanto's to lose, but it could go either way. RBY could be ahead early, because his skill is better, imo. Desanto's motor should pull out the win, but don't be surprised at a flip. We'll go Desanto by dec. 165: Not sure who to pick here. 174: hall vs Kemerer:hall by decision (wouldn’t be surprised if Kemerer won 184: Brooks did not look great last night but I do think he is better than Assad at 100%. Another one that can go either way. While I have cherry picked statements (there are certainly some wild ones in there to counter with), the general tenor was Iowa was a clear favorite. Someone is getting Carvered. Both wound up being true, but overstated. Iowa won, but by less than expected. Hall lost to Kemerer by 5, but it came to down to the very end.
  16. I am not sure I buy the Carver argument. I went to the dual at Carver in 2020 and the atmosphere was awesome, but it is not clear to me that it really changed any outcomes. Certainly, during the Happel / Lee match the entire crowd was sitting silently as they watched Happel do his best imitation of a turtle.( Even Terry Brands sat quietly after the first few minutes). If the crowd was going to carry the day, you would expect most, if not all, toss ups to go Iowa's way, but that isn't what happened. Going in 133, 157, 165, 184 were toss ups and 3 of 4 went to PSU. Overall the result wound up being much closer than anyone thought it would be. In the related 2020 thread there were 21 predictions with 17 picking Iowa to win, 3 picking PSU, and 1 tie (there is always one) with an average margin for Iowa of 5.6. It wound up being 2.
  17. I think you are overstating the case a bit. One guy thinks that and there are zero likes on the post. But if one is surprising to you, so be it. Of the 9 who have posted projections (not including yours), 6 have PSU, 2 have Iowa, and 1 has it as a tie. The average score prediction is 18.55 - 12.55 PSU. Not exactly extreme. With your prediction it is 17.9 - 13.2 PSU with Iowa winning 3 of 10. Lighten up, Francis. And if it makes you feel better, know that Wrestlestat has Iowa leading 20-0 after 6 weights and winning 23-9.
  18. Mike Macchiavello. My wife and I went to our first NCAA tournament in Cleveland. The stadium held back club seats until the last minute and we were able to snap up a pair. To get to the seats they had an elevator. We get on and there is a wrestler already on the elevator. We had no idea who he was. We strike up a conversation and he seemed like a very nice guy. So we wish him luck as we are exiting. He seemed a little surprised given that we were wearing another school's gear, but also seemed genuinely grateful. My wife and I followed him the rest of the tournament and were very pleasantly surprised to see him win the whole thing. It was kind of fun for us. "Hey, we met that guy, he was nice, we cheered for him and then he won." The following year, in Pittsburgh, I score another last minute ticket. I get to the Marriott across the street from the stadium late Wednesday night. I check in and head to the elevator. When the doors open who is getting off the elevator, but Mike Macchiavello. We make eye contact and he has this vague sense of recognition as he furrows his brow trying to figure out where he has seen me before. I tell him we met in an elevator in Cleveland and my wife and I wished him luck. He immediately says, "Oh yeah, I remember. That is why I won." What a very nice person.
  19. Seems like he is trying to give mobs a bad name. Some of my best friends are mobs.
  20. Or just add a couple team point deductions for spiking head gear.
  21. 22-10 per your predictions
  22. I took Hidlay only because that left shoulder worries me. I did not see Sunday's dual, but Friday night he was clearly protecting it and the brace was, shall we say, just noticeable.
  23. You are so last week, Willie.
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