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wrestlingnerd

2015 Junior Worlds - Huge Letdown

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However, you said there was a 99% chance that we'd place top 3, which doesn't matter in and of itself (a throwaway stat you may have been exaggerating) as much as it's a reflection of your bloated expectations.  Bloated not because of how crazily talented this team is - they are - but because our competition, specifically the three countries who placed ahead of us, is at an insane level as well, EVERY YEAR (as opposed to us).  I was expecting to place top 3 too, but don't consider this a "HUGE LETDOWN" nor do I think that means we're not being "fans of the sport". 

 

You can say whatever you want about all those other countries, but if we suckk so bad and they're so great, remind me again, oh wise one, HOW DID WE DO LAST YEAR??

 

Given the addition of Lee to the team and the substantial progress made by Pico and Hall over the past year, not to mention others, are my expectations really that bloated to assume that we had a very high chance of doing WORSE (3rd) than last year, a 50/50 chance of just replicating the result, and a small chance of actually winning it?

 

You make it sound like I was hoping a team that placed 19th should win the gold. As BigTimeFan pointed out, I'm a FAN of Team USA. Is it that surprising that I expected a team that proved they could compete for gold last year to do the same this year? You and some others, notably the Hoyle guy, act like I just burnt the American flag or something. How is this team's performance not disappointing?

 

Also, get your facts straight. I never assigned 99% statistical certainty to anything. I was pointing out that my expectations were high, nothing more.

 

Her'es the reality: Last year, 2nd place. This year, with a team I consider better even without Snyder on it, since I give full credit for improvement to every returning guy plus the addition of Lee, we got 4th place. 

 

Maybe that's a teeny tiny mild disappointment to some, maybe even you. Maybe you think that's heroic. I honestly could not care less what you think. I think it's a huge letdown. You can disagree with my assessment, but to sit there and take potshots along with everyone else who is so defensive of our performance as if I made some wildly ridiculous post is absurd. The facts are we had a lot of things go wrong, many of them in our control, and we did materially worse than last year with a team that was just as good if not better.

 

How about this for a pep talk then?

 

Young men, we may have gotten 4th place after a 2nd place performance last year, but don't consider this a setback. The posters on themat.com think you guys killed it anyway! Because, well, you see, you guys really aren't THAT good. There are lots of teams that were as loaded with talent. Whicn ones, you ask, well how about last year's, which did materially better than you guys? Oh, wait, ha, that WAS you guys.... Uhm.. well, how about... never mind, nobody seems to have a better team, but who cares? Let's just say you're not that special becauae, well, we wrestle folkstyle in the US, so how good could we be anyway, right? Attaboy guys! GREAT performance!

 

Joey, you're great! As our highest returning finisher along with Pico, we weren't really counting on you to do much this year, so don't worry about the missed weight. Since the rest of the world only wrestles freestyle and you wrestle folkstyle, you get a pass. But wait, oops, you did take the entire year off to exclusively train in freestyle, without even going to school, but never mind that. You still get an A for effort.

 

Aaron, my man, you showed ridiculous improvement! Never mind that you didn't do as well as last year and never mind that you've beaten world-class senior guys in the past but were wrestling boys today. That new hi-c, man, it's a thing of beauty! Attaboy! You may have gotten a bronze in actuality but I give you a gold for hustle and improvement. Forget the fact that you're one of the most exciting wrestlers we have ever had coming out of HS, they wrestle freestyle, and we wrestle folkstyle. Oh, wait. so do you, don't you, since you turned pro specifically for that style and have a world-class personal coach who has trained you in freestyle since you were a little kid. Details, details, the point is still good even for you Aaron. 

 

Marky Mark, there's always next year. Forget about the fact that you've been crushing fools for years now and ran the table to a world title at Cadets. Those were really little boys, who cares about that little insignificant experience. Now that you get to wrestle regular boys, you too get a pass even though you took, what, one half shot if that? That's OK. If matches were only 5:59 long, you'd be a gold medalist! GREAT job! Hold your head up high, I'm sure you're not disappointed at all.

 

4th place? Bah. Who cares? Wrestling is an individual sport ;And Spencer Lee won gold! GOLD for Chrissakes! We're all winners! Yay!! Screw the meanie on themat.com who was disappointed. What does that guy know? 2, 4, same thing, it's still top 10 isn't it? And guess what, we did it while wrestling folkstyle year-round!

 

.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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i didnt get upset about your thread wrestlingnerd, i just disagreed and explained why. nbd. 

 

if you went back in time and re-wrestled that tournament, there is almost no chance that team wins the tournament, and much less than 99% chance they finish 3rd or higher. 

 

if that makes you feel hugely let down, ok, sure. no sweat off my sack, as they say. 

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I would have to agree that this was great performance. As much as we like to think that Junior medals translate in Senior medals I think that this s a LONG stretch in our country. Yes, this was a very good performance by the US team. Four medals is very good. No matter the age group, four medal at a world championship is a good showing. But I need to break down why for wrestlingnerd before he has a heart attack. 

 

1. Making weight overseas is never easy, and it can be one of the worst experiences of your life. A lot of the things you take for granted here in the states while sucking down isn't available over there, and you just can't hit the sauna when you feel like it. Timing is everything. When/where/ and how am I going to get there become huge factors. 

 

2. Secondly, we have a tendency to over hype our young studs. Pico, Hall, and Lee, are REALLY GOOD here, in the states, and Lee has proven he's the best in the world for his age twice. Thats good. The other two are really good no doubt, but there are people you have never even heard of waiting for a chance to represent their country, and when they get that chance, they usually perform well, other countries are 5-6 deep in a freestyle weight, and probably 3-4 deep in greco. 

 

3. Micic shape looked fine. He let his mind run faster than his body and got tired. If he was as out of shape as you described he wouldn't have came back for third. 

 

4. How many Jr medals does Borroughs have? Varner? Scott? John Smith? Cael? Kevin Jackson? My point is that some of best INTERNATIONAL wrestlers don't have ONE jr medal. This is not a direct transition to success on the senior level. There are so many other factors that play a role. 

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I would have to agree that this was great performance. As much as we like to think that Junior medals translate in Senior medals I think that this s a LONG stretch in our country. Yes, this was a very good performance by the US team. Four medals is very good. No matter the age group, four medal at a world championship is a good showing. But I need to break down why for wrestlingnerd before he has a heart attack. 

 

1. Making weight overseas is never easy, and it can be one of the worst experiences of your life. A lot of the things you take for granted here in the states while sucking down isn't available over there, and you just can't hit the sauna when you feel like it. Timing is everything. When/where/ and how am I going to get there become huge factors. 

 

2. Secondly, we have a tendency to over hype our young studs. Pico, Hall, and Lee, are REALLY GOOD here, in the states, and Lee has proven he's the best in the world for his age twice. Thats good. The other two are really good no doubt, but there are people you have never even heard of waiting for a chance to represent their country, and when they get that chance, they usually perform well, other countries are 5-6 deep in a freestyle weight, and probably 3-4 deep in greco. 

 

3. Micic shape looked fine. He let his mind run faster than his body and got tired. If he was as out of shape as you described he wouldn't have came back for third. 

 

4. How many Jr medals does Borroughs have? Varner? Scott? John Smith? Cael? Kevin Jackson? My point is that some of best INTERNATIONAL wrestlers don't have ONE jr medal. This is not a direct transition to success on the senior level. There are so many other factors that play a role. 

 

Thanks for adding to the growing list of excuses. 

 

Making weight abroad is tough? Holy sht, thanks for the news flash. I would've never guessed. In case you don't know, there's only one home team every year. Did I miss a new rule change that says other countries get to weigh in at home and compete abroad except for the USA? What a ridiculous point to make, especially as your first one.

 

There is no overhyping results. Hall was a world champion last year, same as Lee. Sure it was cadets, but it's not like we can't develop an opinion on their ability to compete internationally based on those results. I never said I expected Hall to win it all. I expected a better effort than he delivered, that's all. Pico is about as proven a junior wrestler as there is this year from any country. There is no overhyping his actual on-the-mat results. The kid has built a very, very impressive body of work and all he does is train freestyle year-round, forgoing not only folkstyle but normal high school itself. How do you overhype a resturning silver medalist who is the highest placing returner? Is he not automatically the favorite? Same for McKenna, there is zero hype involved. He made the finals of the very same tournament last year! That's like saying people who think Alex Dieringer or Cody Brewer are being overhyped because they're the favorites to win NCAA titles this year.

 

So now Micic looked to be in fine shape, but the reason he gassed so hard is not because of his shape, but his mind? His mind was running? I see. That makes a lot of sense.

 

Who cares how many junior medals the all-time greats have. People develop at different stages, they focus on freestyle at different stages. I never said anything about transition to seniors. In fact, what I said was specifically about how JUNIOR results were a letdown. Maybe you forgot to re-read the title of the thread. Yes, it's hard to medal at worlds. But you're never going to convince me that going from 2nd to 4th represents a very good performance, and therefore I shouldn't be disappointed that a lot of regrettable events occurred this year.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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Here is my take on the Junior Worlds:

 

Not a bad showing at all by the freestyle team. We need work in Greco. Until the United States wrestling community places more value on the Olympics, we will continue to play catch up. The USA will have some glimmers of hope (Specer Lee, Burroughs, etc.) that can compete successfully at the World and Olympic championships, but that's about it. Folkstyle wrestling from day one hurts the USA internationally. I know folkstyle is "our" national form of wrestling, but I think it puts us way behind in terms of freestyle and Greco development. Obviously eliminating folkstyle from our wrestling is never going to happen, but if there was some way to add more freestyle and Greco opportunities to our young wrestlers we could cut the gap.

 

The biggest problem with our Juniors and Cadets in both styles is experience. A Cadet's first international exposure should NOT be the World Championships. We need to get our best Juniors and Cadets over to Europe more than once before the Worlds to get them acclimated to how the rest of the world competes. I'm a Greco guy and I can tell you that how we wrestle Greco in the US is nowhere near how the rest of the world wrestles Greco. Our athletes do not lack anything other than experience.

 

Additionally, the rest of the world focuses on two events annually: their Continental tournament (European Championships) and the Worlds. Everything else is more or less training. Unfortunately in the US, we train for the here and now. We get excited when one of our guys beats a World champ at the World Cup or whatever dual of the month. The rest of the world chalks that up to experience and moves on to prepare for the big events. It's great that our guys can beat the best in the world, but how about we focus on beating them when it counts: at the World or Olympic Championships?

 

We have outstanding coaches and athletes in the system; I have enjoyed my time at the OTC with Frasier and Lindland. They are working hard with the world teams to change things up. If we could have this focus all the way down to Cadets, there might begin some hope to change the outcomes at the World Championships.

 

I'm sure a lot of people will think what I wrote is absolute garbage and insanity and how dare I badmouth folkstyle. These are the same people who will complain if we don't do well in Vegas next month, blaming the coaches, the system, and how dumb freestyle and Greco are. Maybe we need to consider how dumb folkstyle is if we want to be successful at the world level. And no, making the rest of the world wrestle folkstyle is not a good choice. We need to stop thinking that our style is the best and only style of wrestling and look in the mirror. Until the focus of wrestling in the US changes towards freestyle and Greco, our teams will probably be in the middle of the pack at the Senior level, and our Juniors and Cadets will be in a crap shoot. Perhaps a long, hard look at our own system will make us realize that WE need to change and NOT the rest of the world.

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I felt last year's team was a bit stronger than this year's team.  Dean, Snyder and Coon seemed more ready to step up at this level.  I also felt the 1998 team was better.  1979 maybe as well, though that's such a different era it's tough to compare.  

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You're taking this much more personally than anyone else.  Just make your argument without the snide remarks, makes your case harder to take objectively.  I expressed my opinion, didn't assert how I'm right and you're wrong nanannanana.  Jesus christ.

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You're taking this much more personally than anyone else.  Just make your argument without the snide remarks, makes your case harder to take objectively.  I expressed my opinion, didn't assert how I'm right and you're wrong nanannanana.  Jesus christ.

 

I didn't say you're wrong. I did say I didn't care what your opinion was. I corrected factual inaccuracies, such as your suggestion that I ascribed 99% statistical probability to a 3rd place finish when i was saying that's how confident I was going on as a fan with high expectations.

 

It's impossible to take anyone's case objectively on this topic because it is by its very nature a subjective topic.

 

You want objectivity? Here you go: 2015, 2nd place. 2015, 4th place. Is it possible to be more objective than that? Some people think that's great and we crushed it. I think it was a letdown. That's basically what these three pages are about. There's no right or wrong, but some guys are coming on here and making it seem like I thought everyone should win gold. If Jordan Burroughs gets silver, I'll be hugely disappointed. I'm sure some of the same guys will come on here and suggest I'm an idiot since he only placed 3rd last year....

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It seems most of the guys who got upset about my thread didn't like the word "huge."

 

Bingo. At least the dramatic effect makes for a longer discussion. 

I was hoping they would win the team race. My dismal knowledge of past Jr. Teams and of other countries' depth makes this year's USA team seem pretty amazing in my opinion too.

 

That said, the only "huge" letdown in my book is McKenna. The three who lost in the closing seconds of matches were disappointing as well, but dominating the world is probably harder than it looks.

 

I was purely impressed with Lee, and Butler exceeded expectations. 

 

I wish we were celebrating an optimal performance, but as other posters pointed out, this is still one of our best performances to date.

I'm sure all the boys besides Lee and Butler are disappointed too. Hopefully this perspective will motivate them for the better. 

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I corrected factual inaccuracies, such as your suggestion that I ascribed 99% statistical probability to a 3rd place finish when i was saying that's how confident I was going on as a fan with high expectations.

 

what is the difference? if, going into the tournament, there was an over under bet of 3.5 place for the USA JR team, would you take the under if it paid out 1 dollar for ever 100 you bet? what about $10 to get $1?

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what is the difference? if, going into the tournament, there was an over under bet of 3.5 place for the USA JR team, would you take the under if it paid out 1 dollar for ever 100 you bet? what about $10 to get $1?

 

The difference is one is a proclamation of  fact and the other is a calibration of your own opinion. Facts are immutable. Opinions are like you, aholes, and everyone has one.

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I felt last year's team was a bit stronger than this year's team.  Dean, Snyder and Coon seemed more ready to step up at this level.  I also felt the 1998 team was better.  1979 maybe as well, though that's such a different era it's tough to compare.  

Can you tell us the highlights of the 1998 and 1979 teams?

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I love this thread because everyone in it loves wrestling and is serious about it.

 

Personally I wish that our freestyle teams would do better, but that would require more support at the national level for wrestling. Given the size of the USA, the level of resources we have in general and the focus on athletics, if there were any kind of real national level money going to support more athletes and coaches in more regional training centers we would do better.

 

Whether you call them excuses or lack of experience or what-not I believe these things would happen less if we had a viable career track for athletes 1 - 10 on the ladder at each weight class. This would trickle all the way down to the cadet and junior level because the dream of becoming an Olympic champ would be taken up by more athletes. 

 

And this is the number one reason the US should figure out how to convert college wrestling to follow as closely as possible UWW rules. In doing so, there would be a clear path from Cadet, to JR, to SR, to Olympic style. More kids could dream the dream. More parents would buy into the dream if there were more support. Potentially fewer kids would pull a Pico.

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Can you tell us the highlights of the 1998 and 1979 teams?

1979 was dominated by the Russians.  1977 had Randy Lewis, Churella, and Severn win gold.  Also placing: Weaver, Metzger, Blatnick and De Paoli.  5 of those guys became world team members, multiple champions.

 

1998 had Stephen Abas and Donny Pritzlaff as champions.  TJ Hill, Mark Munoz, Zach Thompson placed.

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The difference is one is a proclamation of  fact and the other is a calibration of your own opinion. Facts are immutable. Opinions are like you, aholes, and everyone has one.

that is not at all how i would characterize future probabilities but whatevs, semantics.

 

Anyway, more importantly, what would you do with the prop bet? at what odds do you no longer put money on the US junior team to place top 3? if it was 1 million dollars to win 1 dollar you wouldn't bet it, correct? so what is it? 1:1000? 1:100? 2:1?

 

or would you take even money with a 2.5 o/u? assuming you were actually 50% confident the team would finish top 2 that would be a 50/50 bet for you. 

Edited by Jaroslav Hasek

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that is not at all how i would characterize future probabilities but whatevs, semantics.

 

Anyway, more importantly, what would you do with the prop bet? at what odds do you no longer put money on the US junior team to place top 3? if it was 1 million dollars to win 1 dollar you wouldn't bet it, correct? so what is it? 1:1000? 1:100? 2:1?

 

or would you take even money with a 2.5 o/u? assuming you were actually 50% confident the team would finish top 2 that would be a 50/50 bet for you. 

 

I don't know why you insist on picking this particularly insignificant nit, but I'll play along for now. When I said my expectation as a guy rooting for Team USA was 50/50 for a repeat of last year, 15% for better, and 99% for a step worse, that is NOT some proclamation of future probabilities. That's just my opinion, and it means nothing. I'm not laying down a betting line. I'm making a statement of my personal confidence in the team. What I would bet and at what odds has literally zero relevance to future probabilities. 

 

Now continue to harp on about odds as if that adds anything to the discussion. What are you even arguing? That my opinion is wrong? At least call me a douche or something to make it interesting. I'd bet Donald Trumps $10B, at 1000:1 odds. how about that, happy?

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1979 was dominated by the Russians.  1977 had Randy Lewis, Churella, and Severn win gold.  Also placing: Weaver, Metzger, Blatnick and De Paoli.  5 of those guys became world team members, multiple champions.

 

1998 had Stephen Abas and Donny Pritzlaff as champions.  TJ Hill, Mark Munoz, Zach Thompson placed.

 

If we have to go that far back to find teams that were better or comparable, I think my point that this year's team was especially talented is more than proven. I commend you on your memory.

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I don't know why you insist on picking this particularly insignificant nit, but I'll play along for now. When I said my expectation as a guy rooting for Team USA was 50/50 for a repeat of last year, 15% for better, and 99% for a step worse, that is NOT some proclamation of future probabilities. That's just my opinion, and it means nothing. I'm not laying down a betting line. I'm making a statement of my personal confidence in the team. What I would bet and at what odds has literally zero relevance to future probabilities. 

 

Now continue to harp on about odds as if that adds anything to the discussion. What are you even arguing? That my opinion is wrong? At least call me a douche or something to make it interesting. I'd bet Donald Trumps $10B, at 1000:1 odds. how about that, happy?

so your expectation was 50/50 that they would finish 1 or 2, but that is not a proclamation of future probabilities? 

 

ok....

 

anyway, can you answer this one: if, before the tournament, someone was to offer you 1 dollar if the team finished 3rd or better, if you would give them 10 if they finished 4th or worse, would you take it? yes or no?

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so your expectation was 50/50 that they would finish 1 or 2, but that is not a proclamation of future probabilities?

No, actually, it's not. It's me making a statement about my opinion only. If I tell you As a fan of Floyd Mayweather, I was 90% confident he'd win, the line doesn't change because I'm a Mayweather homer. It's just my opinion.

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