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IronChef

Betting lines

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Flo published these lines from sportsbook.ag. Any thoughts?

 

http://www.flowrestling.org/coverage/252424-2015-UWW-Senior-World-Championships/article/35399-Betting-Lines-For-Vegas-Worlds#.VezktaC9KK0

 

For those unfamiliar, a positive number means you bet $100 to get the amount listed (plus your original 100). Negative numbers mean you have to bet that amount to win $100 (plus your original bet). Thus, if you like Burroughs at -1200, you can bet $1200 and get $1300 back if he wins.

 

I wonder if Adeline Gray is as much of a favorite as listed. Biggest favorite is Kaori Icho, which seems right. Burroughs is tied as the 2nd biggest with Yoshida. The Sadulaev line seems like free money, essentially even odds to win, same as Metcalf.

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Thought the Sadulaev line was free money too. Seems almost too good to be true. 

 

Then again, there's always the "gambling doesn't pay" thing. Just looking at that line, get the feeling someone's going to beat him now.

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All, thanks a lot for posting these. I love it. Here is something about how to read the odds I found (I had no idea myself):

 

http://www.explainbettingodds.com/

 

How To Read American Betting Odds

American odds have become incredibly commonplace, despite the fact that they are not as easy to read as other formats. As an example, American Odds read like this:

Odds To Win Super Bowl:

  • Team A: -150
  • Team B: +200
  • Team C: +600
  • Team D: +1000

With American odds, the number represented is how much you have to bet to win $100. If the number is preceded with a "+" sign, then you would risk less than $100 to win a wager worth $100. And, the opposite is true when the number is preceded with a "-" where the bettor would have to risk more than $100 just to win $100 of the wager.

In the example above, you can see that Team A has the lowest number of the group and are considered to be the favorite to win this bet. If you wagered on Team A to win the Super Bowl and they end up winning, you are going to need to risk more than $100 to win $100 as indicated by the "-" symbol preceding the payouts. In this particular example, a bettor would need to wager $150 to win $100.

 

On the opposite side of that, the other 3 teams in contention all pay better than 1 to 1 odds (risk less than $100 to win $100). Team B is at +200: risk $50 to win $100. Team C is at +600: risk $16.67 to win $100. Team D is at +1000: risk $10 to win $100.

 

These can be a little bit confusing but if you just pay attention to the + or - symbol then you should not have any issues. And, with a little bit of manipulation, you can see how these odds will pay if the wager ends up being a winner and that is what we're all here for... to win.

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Comment on the Vegas odds.

 

The odds makers only care about how balanced their books are. They balance out bets on the field vs bets on the individual so that they can make a profit. For example:

 

Say one person bet 1200 on Burroughs and one person bet 100 on the field at 74kg. Then if Burroughs wins, the book (aka the odds maker) has to pay out 100 to the one person who bet on Burroughs. Meanwhile the person who bet 100 on the field gets nothing and the odds maker breaks even. So the book is perfectly balanced and the odds maker could give a hoot who wins or loses. 

 

Now suppose the book is very unbalanced at the start, for example, everyone bets on Burroughs and no one bets the field. Then the book is exposed to Burroughs winning. So the odds maker moves the line and makes it increasingly unattractive to bet on Burroughs and increasingly attractive to bet the field. That's what is likely going on right now. To bet on Burroughs is absurd at this point. Bet 1200 to make 100? That requires him to win 12 out of 13 times, that's more than virtually anyone in history. Meanwhile you can bet 100 on the field and win 600 if Burroughs doesn't win. This waves in bets on the other side to balance out the book. 

 

One result of the way odds are made is that the lines move as odds makers look to balance out their books. For example, the line has moved on Sadulaev since Flo posted it. It's now -235 (Sadulaev to win) vs +170 (the field). So bet 235 to win 100 if Sadulaev wins vs bet 100 to win 170 if anyone else wins. Check it out here.

 

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/home.sbk#search_wrestling

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The field against Brent Metcalf looks really nice to me.

it's the perfect opportunity for a modest bet by a Metcalf fan. lose the bet and it's worth it because Metcalf wins gold and who cares about a modest bet when something that cool happens. win the bet, and Metcalf doesn't win gold as expected but at least you get a few extra bucks to help you make the most out of your trip to Vegas. 

 

at least that's one way to look at it. 

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I don't understand gambling, but how many people do you think are putting money down on this tournament? Given that the sport and its figures are relative unknowns, I have to imagine that there's not a lot of money being put down this week on wrestling.

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I don't understand gambling, but how many people do you think are putting money down on this tournament? Given that the sport and its figures are relative unknowns, I have to imagine that there's not a lot of money being put down this week on wrestling.

most likely very little and any large bet would be flagged, reported and likely voided. good chance there is a limit. i doubt the sports book makes any money on them, just a way to get more people in the room to place more bets on other lines where there is a lot more action and efficient markets. 

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