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Katie

Metcalf & 65kg discussion

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Brackets are out. To win gold, Metcalf will likely have to beat:


 


Lukacs - Hungary


Kaya - Turkey- he beat Metcalf last year


Mohammadi - Iran- current world number one and last year's silver medalist


Garcia - Canada- last year's bronze medalist


Asgarov - Azerbaijan- Olympic champ as a teenager


Ramonov - Russia- last year's world champ


 


Discuss.


Edited by Katie

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What was the odds on the field vs Metcalf?

 

Anyway, I'm sure Brent knew he was going to face numerous World class wrestlers no matter what the bracket looked like. And yes, it looks like Ramonov has a great chance to advance to the finals. But this is 65kg, you never know.

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How insanely tough is that bottom half of the bracket?! But I'm sure Metcalf isn't too concerned where he is in the bracket. If he plans on winning this crazy weight, he's going to have to beat these guys at some point. Not a good spot to be in but hopefully he strings together a bunch of great matches tomorrow. He's certainly capable.

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Brent has a tough road no doubt. But he's just going to have to have one of those days of days. He should beat the Hungarian, and hopefully he's worked out the kinks for his chest pinch defense. If so, I think he gets past the Turk. Then he just has to wrestle like he wrestles at the recent World Cups.

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I do think he gets passed Kaya this year, can't give up easy points against any of these guys. He has the motor to go with Mohamaddi, can his physicality outmatch Asgarov's slickness? But then again, he could have Gomez, Safrayan, or Garcia too.

Edited by iowawrestling8989

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Think about Franklin Gomez's road. To win gold, he'll likely have to beat:

 

Safaryan - 2013 world champ

Asgarov- teenaged Olympic champ

a random bro

Sava- last year's bronze medalist

Mohammadi- last year's silver medalist and current world number one

Ramonov- last year's world champ

Edited by Katie

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Welcome to 65kg. No where to run, no where to hide.

 

to win gold, true enough

 

but those lucky enough to be in the upper "half" have an easier route to reach the finals

 

Novachkov (wrestling for Bulgaria) for instance, to reach the finals, would have to face:

NR

NR

#8

#16

 

Metcalf's road to finals (in lower "half") goes through:

NR

#6

#1

NR

#3

 

seems rather lopsided imho, but i guess that's what comes with no seeding

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From the wrestler's perspective, who cares about the draw because you have to beat the best competitors regardless when your goal is to win the tournament.  However, from an objective POV, how can a FILA employee possibly justify the bottom-stacked bracket draw?  9/10 it makes one side of the bracket not only tougher and deeper but requires more matches thus making competitors more fatigued and (again objectively) causing imbalance in the bracket.  Why in God's name can you not space out the pigtail matches?  Is that too simple?  It's completely absurd.  Not only do the best wrestlers have to face their most challenging opposition repeatedly and earlier, the best wrestlers get beaten down while lesser competitors stay fresh.  That is such an avoidable problem.  Are they dumb or stubborn or what? 

Edited by bwh27

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Well, a lot of you guys over the past years seem to think Metcalf is a gold medal calibre wrestler who for one reason or another has been unable to execute at the worlds. I honestly don't buy it and don't see much evidence of that. In my opinion he is flat out not good enough. We will find out soon enough.

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You will not find a bigger Metcalf fan than I.   I'm ijn Las Vegas, and I've attended the first two days.  What amazing wrestling thus far and we're talking greco! 

 

I hate to admit this but Brent wont do better than 2 and done.   

 

He just cannot do it.  It's just not in the cards.   

 

He was on his way out 2 years ago, long in the tooth and the opposition reeling him in when to all of our delight, they inexplicably change the rules and the weight class, and Brent is given new life.   BUt this bracket is too much.   Brent gets a gimmie to open up but then runs into the teeth of the bracket. The reality is he just is not good enough.   With Pico surging and our likely rep next year, I had hoped Brent could get it done this year and retire with a world medal of any color, just so long as it was world level.  That is NOT going to happen and the sooner we come to grips with this fact, the less disappointment we will suffer.  

 

In spirit and support I say Lets Go Brent!   But I think if we're honest, we all know he just is not going to place.      I am purposely not attending tomorrow for the sake of not witnessing another disappointment (the 10th in 10 years for Brent).    We just could not buy a break this year and some times that's how the cookie crumbles. 

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The UWW explanation is they don't want some guys having a pigtail match while their opponents get a rest. One of those crazy rules from the old era, I think.

 

UWW has been working hard to be more fan friendly. Hopefully they realize these archaic brackets upset a lot of people and figure it out.

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You will not find a bigger Metcalf fan than I.   I'm ijn Las Vegas, and I've attended the first two days.  What amazing wrestling thus far and we're talking greco! 

 

I hate to admit this but Brent wont do better than 2 and done.   

 

He just cannot do it.  It's just not in the cards.   

 

He was on his way out 2 years ago, long in the tooth and the opposition reeling him in when to all of our delight, they inexplicably change the rules and the weight class, and Brent is given new life.   BUt this bracket is too much.   Brent gets a gimmie to open up but then runs into the teeth of the bracket. The reality is he just is not good enough.   With Pico surging and our likely rep next year, I had hoped Brent could get it done this year and retire with a world medal of any color, just so long as it was world level.  That is NOT going to happen and the sooner we come to grips with this fact, the less disappointment we will suffer.  

 

In spirit and support I say Lets Go Brent!   But I think if we're honest, we all know he just is not going to place.      I am purposely not attending tomorrow for the sake of not witnessing another disappointment (the 10th in 10 years for Brent).    We just could not buy a break this year and some times that's how the cookie crumbles. 

CT..Step away from the bong and the lighter!

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Metcalf can beat top 10 wrestlers, but the more top 10 wrestlers in a day you have to wrestle the less likely you are to beat everyone. 

 

if he and Ramonov switched places in the brackets I would put money on him rather than anyone in the bottom half of the bracket. but considering the draw he is a long shot. that is one of the selling points of the random draw and uneven bracket, you mix up the odds. 

 

anyone, lets leave Pico out of the discussion for now and focus on the 65 kg wrestlers who are at the tournament? 

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What was the odds on the field vs Metcalf?

 

Anyway, I'm sure Brent knew he was going to face numerous World class wrestlers no matter what the bracket looked like. And yes, it looks like Ramonov has a great chance to advance to the finals. But this is 65kg, you never know.

The odds on Metcalf +210 (=risk 100 to win 210), odds on the field -300 (risk 300 to win 100).

 

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/boxing-+-mma-betting/home.sbk#search_wrestling

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You will not find a bigger Metcalf fan than I.   I'm ijn Las Vegas, and I've attended the first two days.  What amazing wrestling thus far and we're talking greco! 

 

I hate to admit this but Brent wont do better than 2 and done.   

 

He just cannot do it.  It's just not in the cards.   

 

He was on his way out 2 years ago, long in the tooth and the opposition reeling him in when to all of our delight, they inexplicably change the rules and the weight class, and Brent is given new life.   BUt this bracket is too much.   Brent gets a gimmie to open up but then runs into the teeth of the bracket. The reality is he just is not good enough.   With Pico surging and our likely rep next year, I had hoped Brent could get it done this year and retire with a world medal of any color, just so long as it was world level.  That is NOT going to happen and the sooner we come to grips with this fact, the less disappointment we will suffer.  

 

In spirit and support I say Lets Go Brent!   But I think if we're honest, we all know he just is not going to place.      I am purposely not attending tomorrow for the sake of not witnessing another disappointment (the 10th in 10 years for Brent).    We just could not buy a break this year and some times that's how the cookie crumbles. 

I always like and respect your posts. You are even-handed and realistic. My one thought is that our guys need support win, lose or draw. I say go and cheer him on. If he loses, you knew that ahead of time but he's got one more guy in the stands supporting him. If he wins you will be the first to say you were glad to be wrong. 

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this bracket is absolutely brutal. Look at some of the first round matches alone, you have Sava, bronze last year, vs Gadzjiev from Poland, who is ranked 2nd up at 70. The winner there gets Chamizo. 2013 world champ Safaryan gets 2011 silver Gomez first round, winner most likely gets Asgarov. That's one hell of a quarter bracket!

 

Metcalf only lost to the Turk by 1 point last year, no reason to think he can't win that match. The Iranian may be another story. Objectively I thought Metcalf might be the 4th best guy here, behind Russia, Iran and Azerbijian, unfortunately he ended up with two of them on his side. If he beats the Iranian I think he will definitely make the semis, which would qualify the weight for Rio and give him a shot at a medal, win or lose. If he loses to Iran, it's 50/50 if he gets pulled back in, and if he does would most likely have to beat Asgarov for bronze.

 

None of this is a guarantee. Asgarov hasn't exactly been consistent since the Olympics and he may have his hands full with either Chamizo who has beaten him before or the Poland entry ranked 2nd up a weight. If he is having his beat day Metcalf can beat anyone. My hope is the Iranian's first two matches take a lot out of him, he'll have Edinboro's Habat first round and probably the Cuban Metcalf beat at Pan Am's second, they are tough but not on his level but still hopefully they beat him up a bit. Hopefully there isn't a lot of rest time between matches either, that would favor Metcalf I think.

 

Top half seems like the Russians to lose. Probably have Novachkov in quarters, who is dangerous, and 2x bronze medalist Ganzorig in semis. Ganzorig looks to be in good position to win a 3rd straight bronze medal, and Metcalf has beaten him twice now.

 

Should make for a fun, wild bracket. Go Metcalf!

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The odds on Metcalf +210 (=risk 100 to win 210), odds on the field -300 (risk 300 to win 100).

 

https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/boxing-+-mma-betting/home.sbk#search_wrestling

which is an implied probability of 32% to win, which is definitely too high. 

 

for math's sake, let's assume Metcalf is either a 50% or 100% chance to beat everyone in his weight class (which is being optimistic imo). 

 

Lukacs > Kaya > Mohammadi > Garcia > Asgarov > Ramonov

1 x 0.5x 0.5 x 1 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 6.25%.

 

not sure if the line has changed since the bracket came out. 

 

on the other hand, if he switched places on the bracket with Ramonov, I'd double his chance of winning to 12.5% (using the same formula) and his odds at medaling at an even 50%. 

 

Odds of bronze from his current draw are probably also 6% because other hammers will be in the repechage with him, should he get pulled back in. 

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