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Metcalf & 65kg discussion

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I am a HUGE Pico fan and think he has a chance to be something special. However, even though I think whoever wins the trials is a medal CONTENDER at 65kg, I don't think Aaron or any other American has much of a chance to beat Metcalf at the trials. None of them has shown any ability to beat him and I am not even sure Pico wont outgrow the weight. Should be fun though!

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I am a HUGE Pico fan and think he has a chance to be something special. However, even though I think whoever wins the trials is a medal CONTENDER at 65kg, I don't think Aaron or any other American has much of a chance to beat Metcalf at the trials. None of them has shown any ability to beat him and I am not even sure Pico wont outgrow the weight. Should be fun though!

Not even world bronze medalist James Green, who many consider to be the favorite?

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Interesting.  Green hasn't wrestled a Senior Level match at 143 and he is already considered the favorite by many?  Is favorite defined as the one many "WANT" to win or the "ODDS ON"?  Hard to consider someone who has to drop 11 lbs the favorite until he actually shows he can do it...................

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Neither here nor there (but it's a cool fact) that Green beat Chamizo at 70.  I know we're talking apples and oranges here due to the weight class they went at it in but still.

 

I think Green can be taken seriously at 65.

Edited by Hubbard

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I think it's a fair statement to say the bronze medalist at the next weight class up is the favorite in the next weight class down, where no one in the field has ever medalled at the worlds, previously.  

 

If you watch them wrestle, Green's clearly a better wrestler than Metcalf.   The only question is, will he make the weight?   If he does, I'm not sure Brent even finishes top 2, let alone wins the weight.   

 

Lets keep in mind Brent isn't exactly imrpoving at a high rate, he's pretty much what he has been for years now.   Those nipping at his heals (Pico, Steiber for example) are getting better and better.   Throw in a likely healthy Oliver and perhaps even a Schlatter, and this weight class is wide open.   1/4s on will be worth the price of admission, alone. 

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If Green can make it down to 65kg, I think he is the favorite. 

 

1) Green beat the guy who forcibly pinned down the shoulders of the guy who beat Metcalf.

2) Green is a world medalist, and no one at 65kg can say that. 

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Metcalf and Ramos both could medal.  They're also in the bottom third athletically when compared to the to the other top 20 athletes, imo, maybe worse.  This isn't folkstyle, grinding only gets you so far.  Both of them can lose to the world #1 by 1 point - and then turn around and lose to the world #15 by 4.  Can they medal? Yes, but there isn't much margin for error.  

 

But its still 'merica, its their spot until someone takes it from them on the mat.

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Green could very well become the favorite.  However, I don't see how he IS the favorite until he actually shows he can wrestle at 143.  His talent is based on explosive speed and strength.  I am not convinced a guy not known for cutting weight is all of a sudden going to cut 11 lbs and retain that strength and speed.  I know the Forum Force is strong with passive-aggressive Metcalf knockers, but Metcalf has quite possibly been the most dominant domestic freestyler in the USA.  He is the CLEAR favorite until someone actually steps on the mat and beats him.................

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if Metcalf had the same draw as Green up at 70kg i'd wager he also gets a bronze medal. 

 

putting odds right now i'd have Metcalf at 51%, Green at like 25%, Pico 10% and the rest on the field. i feel like thats being conservative on Metcalf but who knows im just going with my gut. maybe i'm way off, we'll see. Metcalf hasn't been challenged in a few years so a change of pace would be fun from my perspective.

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Not made up, an opinion based on the fact you are a die hard, overzealous, fierce, high-strung, galvanic, vehement Metcalf fan. Since you now are on record that you would not take Metcalf over the field for the next 5 years, I retract my statement. 

Perhaps the fact it was made up is because you are in fact a die hard, overzealous, fierce, high-strung, galvanic, vehement anti-Metcalf fan.  ;)

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if Metcalf had the same draw as Green up at 70kg i'd wager he also gets a bronze medal. 

 

putting odds right now i'd have Metcalf at 51%, Green at like 25%, Pico 10% and the rest on the field. i feel like thats being conservative on Metcalf but who knows im just going with my gut. maybe i'm way off, we'll see. Metcalf hasn't been challenged in a few years so a change of pace would be fun from my perspective.

 

The problem with this hypo (how Metcalf would do with Green's draw) is it assumes Metcalf could make the team at 70kg. IMO Green would always beat Metcalf at 70kg, and there's no guarantee Metcalf can beat guys like Schlatter and Marable at 70kg, either. I don't assume he can. So what you're hypo is really saying is Metcalf would have a good shot at a medal at 70kg provided a number of people didn't exist, and provided he got a good draw. 

 

You can say that at 65kg as well. If Chamizo, Navruzov, Ramonov, and Mohmmadi didn't exist, and if Metcalf got a good draw, I think he'd have a good chance of medaling at 65kg. 

 

Neither hypo is really going out on a limb. 

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I believe Pico presents the biggest challenge to Brent, not Green. I think if Green makes it all the way down to 143, he won't be the same guy that he was at 70 Kg. It might be that Green stays up at 70 Kg. And just trains to be an unstoppable monster for 2017. At 65 Kg. We're going to have another demolition derby, we have Kellen Russell, Jimmy Kennedy, Logan Stieber, Aaron Pico, and Jordan Oliver, and who knows who else. If Green does become the guy that emerges to threaten Brent, I believe Brent takes a page out of the playbook of the 70 Kg. Iranian who faced Green at the World's which was to basically run across the mat and tie up with Green so that he could not shoot from distance. This will probably won't be much of a stretch anyway since Brent loves to tie up and snap his opponent's head down. I think the other question here is how does Brent ( assuming he is our guy I'm 2016 ), is how does he get to the next level? I think he has to take some steps to improve his defense. Maybe he has to spend some time with another coach, & training partners, or maybe go overseas for a while. I don't know but I wish him well.

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Green could very well become the favorite.  However, I don't see how he IS the favorite until he actually shows he can wrestle at 143.  His talent is based on explosive speed and strength.  I am not convinced a guy not known for cutting weight is all of a sudden going to cut 11 lbs and retain that strength and speed.  I know the Forum Force is strong with passive-aggressive Metcalf knockers, but Metcalf has quite possibly been the most dominant domestic freestyler in the USA.  He is the CLEAR favorite until someone actually steps on the mat and beats him.................

This.

 

Until Green wrestles at 143lbs, I'd not make any bold prediction of success. That is a pretty big cut. I don't have a crystal ball, but I think Pico or Steiber are more realistic threats. 

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if Metcalf had the same draw as Green up at 70kg i'd wager he also gets a bronze medal. 

 

putting odds right now i'd have Metcalf at 51%, Green at like 25%, Pico 10% and the rest on the field. i feel like thats being conservative on Metcalf but who knows im just going with my gut. maybe i'm way off, we'll see. Metcalf hasn't been challenged in a few years so a change of pace would be fun from my perspective.

 

The draw at these tournaments, where no one is seeded, can certainly alter the chances at getting a medal, and Metcalf's path was formidable, to say the least.

 

Metcalf, ranked #2 going in, had #1, 3, 5, and 6 ranked guys in his half of bracket, before even reaching finals. On the other side of the 65kg bracket, where Boris Novachkov was (former Cal Poly, wrestling for Bulgaria), there were half as many wrestlers (16 vs 32) and the highest ranked was #8. 

 

At 70 kg, Green had a smaller bracket (32 wrestlers vs 48 at 65kg), and he faced 3 unranked wrestlers in his first 3 matches, then lost to #7 ranked Iranian, followed by a win over #9 Bulgarian.

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I love the die hard fans who support their favorite wrestlers but Brent has done squat at the Worlds no matter what his ranking. 

In a straight seeding meeting he would not be the favorite Green would be. Green and maybe Pico over Metcalf. Oliver just doesnt open up or do enough international  

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Metcalf isn't close to my favorite wrestler, and as a Jersey homer it would be awesome for Green to make 65 and destroy everyone in the world, but no one has done squat at the worlds at 65 because no American has challenged Metcalf at that weight for 3 years. 

 

if Pico can continue to improve and hold weight or if Green can make weight and still be effective that would may increase the competition but otherwise, factoring in domestic and international results, i don't see a reason not to consider Metcalf a favorite. 

 

But that's just me. i'll actually be rooting for Green and Pico for the same reasons everyone else is, i just don't get the assumption that Metcalf can't do it. to me he's still the favorite. 

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El C,

 

You make a lot of assumptions without any solid facts or reasoning.  I am admittedly a Metcalf fan.  But, guess what?  I am a very big Green fan as well.  I am NOT saying Metcalf is the favorite just because I am a fan.  I am saying it because he has DOMINATED the weight class in the U.S. over the last 3 years.  He controlled Pico when they wrestled.  Green is very good, but he won a bronze medal in a very thin weight class due to it not being an Olympic weight.  Green may very well be a better wrestler than Metcalf is while wrestling 154.  However, he has done NOTHING to prove he is the better wrestler at 143.

 

Also, in a straight seeding meeting, Metcalf is undefeated in, I believe, 3 seasons, wrecking his domestic competition at 145 and 143.  Green would have NO criteria at the weight.  How exactly would he get seeded over Metcalf?

Edited by MSU158

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if Metcalf had the same draw as Green up at 70kg i'd wager he also gets a bronze medal. 

 

putting odds right now i'd have Metcalf at 51%, Green at like 25%, Pico 10% and the rest on the field. i feel like thats being conservative on Metcalf but who knows im just going with my gut. maybe i'm way off, we'll see. Metcalf hasn't been challenged in a few years so a change of pace would be fun from my perspective.

Not sure how you could say he'd likely medal up a weight, when he's never been able to medal at his normal wrestling weight.  It would be EASIER for him to go up, wrestler bigger athletes and succeed?  

Given that he wins on grinding on his opponent and wearing them down, how do you suppose that would go vs bigger/stronger wrestlers?  

I'd bet it wouldn't go so well.

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Ok, let's take a stab at projecting the field and seeds:

 

In:

Green

Humphrey

Metcalf

 

Farrell Open Top Medalist (Nov.) + Top 7 at Trials Qualifier (Dec.), in no particular order:

Pico

Stieber

Kennedy

Maple

Ness

Molinaro

Russell

Oliver

 

Highest medalist at Schultz not already in:

Chamberlain

 

2 Pan Am events:

(someone from above, no additional qualifiers, but I'll guess Metcalf qualifies the weight here)

 

NCAA champs at 141 and 149:

Gulibon

Tsirtsis

 

Final Trials Qualifier:

Retherford

 

Potential Bracket with Seeds, based on the criteria outlined in the selection procedures document:

 

1. Metcalf (via qualifying the weight at Pan Am's is automatic top seed)

bye

Gulibon

8. Russell

5. Humphrey

Retherford

Chamberlain

4. Oliver

3. Pico (junior worlds medalist)

Molinaro

Ness

6. Kennedy

7. Stieber

Tsirtsis

Maple

2. Green (worlds medalist)

 

Interesting to me that many people like Stieber to be our rep and he could legitimately be only the 7th seed right now...he's 6th at best at the moment (not sure how they'd slot Humphrey, but I think he'd be in the 5-6 range).  Stieber could of course get back some of the head-to-heads he's lost between now and the trials, but he most likely has no way of going in seeded any higher than 4th.  But if seeding took place today, he'd be 6 or 7 and would have to beat all of Pico/Green/Metcalf in some order.

Edited by maligned

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Metcalf controlled Pico? 

he was down 1-0 after the first period... scored one takedown and then got a couple of penalty points... all against an 18 year old... 

 

Since, Metcalf looks exactly the same... wrestling that same grinding, boring, folkstyle match... Pico has shown actual real live improvement...

 

Pico is the favorite in their next match up... 

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