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Metcalf & 65kg discussion

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which is an implied probability of 32% to win, which is definitely too high. 

 

for math's sake, let's assume Metcalf is either a 50% or 100% chance to beat everyone in his weight class (which is being optimistic imo). 

 

Lukacs > Kaya > Mohammadi > Garcia > Asgarov > Ramonov

1 x 0.5x 0.5 x 1 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 6.25%.

 

not sure if the line has changed since the bracket came out. 

 

on the other hand, if he switched places on the bracket with Ramonov, I'd double his chance of winning to 12.5% (using the same formula) and his odds at medaling at an even 50%. 

 

Odds of bronze from his current draw are probably also 6% because other hammers will be in the repechage with him, should he get pulled back in. 

You be mathing...

 

The implied win probability for Metcalf is 32%, agreed (100/310=32.25%). The field is your profit opportunity. Betting the field is an implied 75% probability of Metcalf not winning (300/400). According to your math the field has around a 93.75% of winning. So you should be taking the field all day long given those odds and your view. Of course that would be not very GO USA of you but that's a different matter :)

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  One very big component going for Metcalf, the event is in America. Past tournaments (95 Worlds, 96 Olympics) were huge advantages for the US, especially the first day (first day of mens freestyle today, obviously). This was how Angle won both of his titles (although the next day Zeke paid dearly for the bias Angle received the day before). I honestly believe that Brent could not have a better set-up albeit the draw, I see him gaining a 3 pt advantage/match. He just needs to seize the moment. Look at the history of any host country's performance; it is always better than their years at other sites.

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I always like and respect your posts. You are even-handed and realistic. My one thought is that our guys need support win, lose or draw. I say go and cheer him on. If he loses, you knew that ahead of time but he's got one more guy in the stands supporting him. If he wins you will be the first to say you were glad to be wrong. 

 

 

Thanks for that post.   You are absolutely right.   I had planned on taking the day off from the event today and checking results tomorrow.   That way I could take the bad with the good going on.   But your post hit home.   We do need to support Brent, no mater the adversity or how hopeless the situation seems.   

 

I'll be in the stands wearing an Iowa shirt (yellow with the black writing) and forgive me in advance for how vocal I intend on being for Metcalf's match(es).  I'll be wearing my Stetson hat and Tony Lama boots, with distinct handkerchief in my back pocket.   Any yous see me, holler at me and lets talk wrestling.   

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Looks like today will start off with all men's FS (65kg qualifications).  Metcalf will be the third match on Mat A.  Gomez is on deck on Mat B and Habat is the third match on Mat C.

Edited by Rakkasan91

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Gadzhiev looked like a beat, easily beating last years bronze medalist 9-0. Asgarov seemed sluggish, was only up 5-2 with under 30 seconds before getting one more takedown of a counter shot to win 7-2. Asgarov is no lock to come out of that quarter bracket. He has 2013 world champ Safaryan next.

 

The Turk got upset first round, so no revenge match for Metcalf, he'll have China round two. Habat couldn't do much to help his fellow American by at least challenging the Iranian, so hopefully the Cuban can!

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next round 65 matches in the bottom half is insane.

 

Chamizo v Gadzhiev

Safaryan v Asgarov (2013 v 2102 champs)

Maren v Mohammadi

 

also Metcalf vs the Chinese guy who just demolished Kaya and Garcia lurking in the very bottom 1/16.

 

Ramonov, Ganzorig and NBovachkov all still (obviously) alive up top.

 

phenomenal weight. 

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Thanks for that post.   You are absolutely right.   I had planned on taking the day off from the event today and checking results tomorrow.   That way I could take the bad with the good going on.   But your post hit home.   We do need to support Brent, no mater the adversity or how hopeless the situation seems.   

 

I'll be in the stands wearing an Iowa shirt (yellow with the black writing) and forgive me in advance for how vocal I intend on being for Metcalf's match(es).  I'll be wearing my Stetson hat and Tony Lama boots, with distinct handkerchief in my back pocket.   Any yous see me, holler at me and lets talk wrestling.   

Gotta love it!

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