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maligned

Projecting the Olympic Trials field: 65kg

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Let's take a stab at projecting the field and seeds for 65kg:

 

In:

Green

Humphrey

Metcalf

Oliver

Kennedy

Stieber

Pico

Russell

Molinaro

Chamberlain

Ness

 

2 Pan Am events:

(I'll guess Metcalf qualifies the weight at the Pan Am qualifier, but it will be interesting to see who USA wrestling sends to the Pan Am championships just before the qualifier.  I'll guess no one else gets into the trials via these tournaments.)

 

NCAA champs at 141, and 149:

Heil

Retherford

 

Final Trials Qualifier:

Kulchytskyy

 

Potential Bracket with Seeds, based on the criteria outlined in the selection procedures document:

 

1. Metcalf (via qualifying the weight at Pan Am's would be automatic top seed)

bye

Heil

8. Russell

5. Stieber

Retherford

Chamberlain

4. Kennedy

3. Oliver

Molinaro

Kulchytskyy

6. Humphrey

7. Pico

Ness

bye

2. Green (worlds medalist...written in seed procedures "medalist at UWW event"; nothing about same weight)

 

Still an interesting story here with Stieber...many people still like him as the guy that could genuinely threaten to medal, but he'd have to beat Kennedy, Metcalf, and 2 of 3 from Oliver or Green in succession.  Great weight to watch.

Edited by maligned

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This weight has not been qualified.  Metcalf did not finish in the top 6 at the world championships, which was the first leg.  The Pan Am qualifier is in March. 

 

Same response as the other post...re-read my original post more carefully above to find all of this mentioned.

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I think Dustin Schlatter has an equally good chance to make this weight, if not better, than Green.  I say If not better as Green was coming off an NCAA grueling seasonof weight watching, whereas Dustin seems to be getting the rust off so to speak.  He'd be a real threat at the weight.  Tough cut for Green or Schlatter though.  

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Agreed on Schlatter.   

 

A healthy Dustin Schlatter down at 65 kg is a monster opponent for anyone.   

 

A healthy Oliver on Metcalf's side is going to give Brent all he can handle.   This is probably the year Oliver puts it together and avoids the injury bug which has derailed his chances the past couple years.   

 

On the other side, Pico has to be considered the odds on favorite, provided there is no Green in the weight class.   If Green is there, it's anyone's guess, both are that good.   Excluding Schlatter, i see it as Oliver/Metcalf and Pico/Green.   The winner of the bottom bracket is my pick to beat Oliver and represent the USA

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Not sure if Green makes it to 65Kg. Even if he does, I don't believe he's the dominant force he is at 70 Kg. As far as the rest of the guys, well, it'll be just like this year, except Pico will be in the mix as well. Now does Pico get through all the tough customers that are in this weight to face Metcalf. As great as Pico is, I think he does not make it. You have Oliver, Kennedy, Stieber, Russell and a host of others. Pico should get past somebody but I doubt he gets past everybody on his first try at making a Senior Team. However he could pull a Snyder, but I feel these guys are to close to the top of their game, that they all lose to Pico. As far as Schlatter and Marable, Go, I don't think we'll see them at 65 Kg. Or if we do they will not be the same wrestlers they were up at 70, or 74 Kg. Speaking of which, I think Marable should go 74 Kg. In 2017. I say this because I think the cut to 70 Kg. Just weakens him too much. He's the only U.S. Wrestler to own a win over Burroughs, at 74 Kg., yet at 70, he seems like he can barely make it through a match. Anyway at the end of all of this I think Metcalf being on his home turf, survives to make the Olympic Team. But I think this is his last shot.

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Probably not in 2016, but by 2020 I think Brewer will be a contender as well at 65k. He has a strong freestyle background and won a title in Fargo I believe.

Not knowing anything about the difficulty of Brewer's cut, I have him projected as an automatic bid for the trials at 57kg (125.5) as the NCAA champ at 133.  He may be in this bracket though if he's fortunate enough to win NCAAs.

Edited by maligned

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The Trials at 65 are going to be something else.

 

1. Metcalf has to be the early line favorite, especially with the Trials being held in front a big home town Iowa crowd.

 

2. Stieber looked fantastic teching his way to the Farrell finals only to lose a squeaker to Oliver.

 

3. Of course Oliver is a definite threat to win the Trials. When he gets his offense going, he is very tough to beat.

 

4. Pico? We shall see. If he gets hot at the Trials, he can win this thing too.

 

5. Then the Green factor. If he can handle the weight cut, he could be a definite favorite here as well.

 

6. The field - Molinaro, Kennedy, Russell, and others. You never know. The OTT's aren't won on message boards or paper. The 65 champ will have to go on the mat and win through this very deep bracket.

 

This year, IMO, the USA 65 weight class is almost like a microcosm of the World 65 weight class, where there's lots of parity and the Gold is up for grabs.

Edited by 2td3nf

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I was happy to see Stieber tighten his style up compared to his form in the summer. It could be that he's settling into the higher weight and is strong enough to get away with his bully aggression, or maybe he's taking better shots. He still has lots of room to improve, as most of his opponents' points continue to come from counters, which was the same in 2010. He seems to have less trouble with fellow tank-built guys, than with the leaner guys with better leverage. 

He's fun to watch, even if we get the occasional hands to forehead and head-scratchers. 

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Brewer did not have trouble making 133 last year. He agreed to wrestle at 141 at the all-star meet. He weighed in at 140. Mark Cody said they are monitoring his weight he's currently at 139 as of Friday. I asked Cody Brewer a week ago if he could handle cutting to 125.5 with a night before weighin. He is considering the possibilty. He has the offensive skills to do well internationally.

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He showed a lot of promise today in Baku. I know Metcalf and Oliver both beat Kurbanaliev in the past, but it's hard to put much consideration into those exhibition matches.

Yeah but neither has beaten Romanov yet, so that was a very big win. Then pinning they that beat Kennedy was a good one too. We know that Logan is best when the lights are on, so those trials could be pretty interesting.  He is improving rapidly and clearly has his goals and his sights set on Rio.  I am pretty stoked with his day today overall.  

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I agree that Stieber is improving. I am very interested in seeing how this plays out here. I am reading on the other thread that Jordan Oliver did not compete in France as initially reported, so I'm not sure what happened. But barring injuries or something else, the Trials look to be a barn burner here in April.

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I wish JO would compete in more international events, too.

 

My thoughts are that after today, Logan Stieber will be much more thoroughly scouted by his international opponents. Is Oliver flying a little bit below radar to avoid that happening to him? Either way, someone needs to qualify the weight for Rio, and the experience overseas can only help JO.

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For what it's worth, Metcalf does have a win over both, Ramonov and Kurbanaliev at the 2013 Yarygin where Metcalf won silver.

 

Steiber's a stud and will be a force to be reckoned with come Trials, and yes 65 will be a barn burner. I still feel that Metcalf, JO, Stieber and Pico are all capable of winning the Trials. We'll see who's the best that day.  

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