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maligned

Projecting the Olympic Trials field: 57kg

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Dont know how it would be possible because he would he would be HUUUUGGGGEEE...., but I have it from a pretty reliable source that Brewer may attempt this weight for the trials.   Don't rip me because I personally don't know how he would make the weight, but if he does he will be a serious threat. His freestyle skills surpass his folkstyle ones. 

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IMO, it's just wishful thinking that Cody Brewer, who is currently wrestling 141, drops all the way down to 57Kg. Especially since last year he needed some time off because he was struggling to make 133 Lbs. I think that if he made 57 Kg. He would be just a ghost of his former self. I sure the other top 57 Kg.'s will have a much better chance of trying to dethrone Ramos.

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Best guess at 57kg:

 

In:

Ramos

Graff

 

Top 7 at Trials Qualifier (Dec.), in no particular order:

Colon

Escobedo

Sanders

Naser

Dennis

Mitcheff

Blanc

 

Highest medalist at Schultz not already in:

Scott

 

2 Pan Am events:

(no additional qualifiers, but I'll guess Ramos qualifies the weight here)

 

NCAA champ at 125:

Tomasello

 

Final Trials Qualifier:

Micic

 

Potential Bracket with Seeds, based on the criteria outlined in the selection procedures document:

 

1. Ramos (via qualifying the weight at Pan Am's would be automatic top seed)

bye

Tomasello

8. Mitcheff

5. Sanders

Megaludis

bye

4. Graff

3. Escobedo

bye

Micic

6. Dennis

7. Naser

Scott

bye

2. Colon

 

Such a wide open weight class...a couple of the guys I've listed most likely won't even qualify.  Hochstrasser, Hazewinkel, Megaludis, Perelli, Waters, Simmons and others will make this a very interesting weight.

 

 

 

you realize Coleman is already qualified right

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you realize Coleman is already qualified right

Yes...I realized a couple days ago but have been traveling sans computer and formatting on my phone browser wasn't working well. Anyway, updated now and as a bonus I accidentally liked my own post in the process of fumbling through.

Edited by maligned

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I don't think Ramos remembered he had to do that at the end.  That pushout call was questionable since it seemed like he got the takedown prior to the step out.  But whatever.  He just has to learn to leave no doubt instead of letting the ref make a judgement call. 

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For the guys who are in, I think the seeds would be:

 

1) Ramos

2) Graff

3) Dennis

4) Scott

5) Haze

6) Colon

7) Escobedo

8) Tomasello

9) Tadzhimetov

 

The top 6 seeds seem very clear to me... it would be hard to argue for a different order.  You could move around 7-9 in any order and make a case for it.  If you give more weight to the qualifier, Tadz pinned Escobedo, so he could be higher.  But taking into account all that Escobedo has accomplished (especially being the last American to beat Graff), I think he deserves to be higher.

 

Sanders, Naser, Blanc, Mitcheff, Micic, Morrison, Waters, Hutter, Abas, McD, and Hochstrasser are all out as of now, but a couple of them will ultimately make the field.

 

 

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Scott and Dennis impressed me yesterday.  Will be interesting to see if Ramos gets beat. 

 

Ramos is obviously the most likely individual to win, but if the choice were Ramos vs the field, I think I'd take the field.

 

It is well known that Ramos is undefeated against US wrestlers in Senior Freestyle.  Here are his results against every US wrestler of note:

 

Colon (6-4, 6-0, 3-1)

Hazenwinkel (4-0, 5-4)

Simmons (4-0)

Hochstrasser (7-3)

Mitcheff (9-5)

Escabedo (2-0)

Megaludis (1-0)

Cejudo (exh, 10-8)

 

While this is a pretty impressive list of wins and being undefeated against this group shows remarkable consistency, it is worth noting that only 1 of these 11 matches was decided by more than 4 points (and Ramos was losing with just seconds left in at least a couple of them... Hoch and Cejudo for sure).  It feels like if you wrestle so many close matches, you are leaving yourself vulnerable to 1 slip or call that doesn't go your way putting you in trouble.  Also, based on the expected seeding above, it is interesting Ramos has never faced any of his top 3 competitors (Graff, Dennis, Scott) for the 57kg Rio spot in freestyle.  

 

I'd put the odds of winning this spot at something like this:

 

Ramos 40%

Graff 15%

Dennis 10%

Scott 10%

Haze 10%

Other 15%

 

So Ramos is the favorite, but more than half the time, someone knocks him off.

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Ramos is obviously the most likely individual to win, but if the choice were Ramos vs the field, I think I'd take the field.

 

It is well known that Ramos is undefeated against US wrestlers in Senior Freestyle.  Here are his results against every US wrestler of note:

 

Colon (6-4, 6-0, 3-1)

Hazenwinkel (4-0, 5-4)

Simmons (4-0)

Hochstrasser (7-3)

Mitcheff (9-5)

Escabedo (2-0)

Megaludis (1-0)

Cejudo (exh, 10-8)

 

While this is a pretty impressive list of wins and being undefeated against this group shows remarkable consistency, it is worth noting that only 1 of these 11 matches was decided by more than 4 points (and Ramos was losing with just seconds left in at least a couple of them... Hoch and Cejudo for sure).  It feels like if you wrestle so many close matches, you are leaving yourself vulnerable to 1 slip or call that doesn't go your way putting you in trouble.  Also, based on the expected seeding above, it is interesting Ramos has never faced any of his top 3 competitors (Graff, Dennis, Scott) for the 57kg Rio spot in freestyle.  

 

I'd put the odds of winning this spot at something like this:

 

Ramos 40%

Graff 15%

Dennis 10%

Scott 10%

Haze 10%

Other 15%

 

So Ramos is the favorite, but more than half the time, someone knocks him off.

I dont think Nate T can win it, but qualifying during the college season was big for him. He surely wasn't as fresh as anyone he wrestled yesterday.  So he may become a more rested and dangerous factor at the trials. I can see him doing better than yesterday, but not sure if he can beat Graff and Ramos.  

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Yeah, the defending American champ Ramos is probably the favorite at this point, but like some other weight classes, who knows? This bracket should be a lot of fun too.

 

How about Coleman Scott making 57? He looked significantly thinner than usual. (Duh.)

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this weight might be hard to qualify, does anyone know how many guys can go to the pan am qualifier or is there no limit? if our guys end up on the same side of the bracket as bonne, i don't think i would be confident in them winning it, (you have to make the finals to qualifiy) Pineda from canada is no slouch either, not to mention that some of the other central and south american wrestlers have been getting better recently. if unfortunetly this gets to the last chance qualifiers, theres no predicting what will happen, those tournaments will prob be even harder.  86 may be a challenge as well in dallas. 

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this weight might be hard to qualify, does anyone know how many guys can go to the pan am qualifier or is there no limit? if our guys end up on the same side of the bracket as bonne, i don't think i would be confident in them winning it, (you have to make the finals to qualifiy) Pineda from canada is no slouch either, not to mention that some of the other central and south american wrestlers have been getting better recently. if unfortunetly this gets to the last chance qualifiers, theres no predicting what will happen, those tournaments will prob be even harder.  86 may be a challenge as well in dallas. 

Very good point.  I'm pretty sure for Pan Am, Last Chance #1, and Last Chance #2, each nation can only send 1 athlete.  I would assume that would be Ramos to Pan Am and whoever wins the spot at Trials to the other 2 (if needed).

 

I think the big question would be if Pan Am has a True 2nd where if the finals loser wrestles against whoever comes back for 3rd place if they haven't met.  If so, then I would like our chances.  If not, then you are right... we are kind of at the mercy of the bracketing... if Ramos and Bonne wind upon the same side, that would be tough.

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 what will the U.S. do for the Pan Am championships proper just before that?  Would they maybe send a young guy like Naser or a past world teamer like Blanc to "gift" them a chance to qualify for trials?  I think more likely Graff or Dennis would be our rep and there will be no new qualifiers from these events.)

 

Another possibility:  McDonough?  

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Edited from a post I made after worlds, based on the assumption that all procedures are the same as last Olympics:

 

1. Pan Am qualifier in early March (top 2 from blind draw with no true 2nd)

2. First international qualifier in Mongolia--April 22 (top 3 from blind draw, but cross-bracket 3rd is wrestled so that exactly 3 spots are filled)

3. Final international open qualifier in Turkey--May 6 (top 2 from blind draw with no true 2nd)

 

Our situation is complicated by the fact that Cuba laid a total egg at worlds.  All their guys will be at the Pan Am qualifier, which is tricky because it's a random draw just like any other tournament.  We'll have to beat Cuba a time or two if we don't want to end up at the last chance qualifying tournaments.

 

Our situation at the Pan-Am qualifier:

57: Bonne of Cuba (star), Pineda of Canada (decent veteran), and Mejias of Venezuela (lost only 4-3 to Rahimi of Iran this weekend) make this a full division

 

65: Gomez of Puerto Rico (world silver medalist at 61), flavor of the week from Cuba, and Garcia of Canada (former medalist and solid veteran) again make this a real division...Metcalf/Green/whoever will have to win a real match or two to advance us

 

86: Again, I didn't pay attention to how exciting this got.  Salas gets upset at worlds by Ceballos, who will also be here.  Throw in Espinal of Puerto Rico too.

 

125: We should own Jarvis of Canada and be favored against whoever Cuba brings, but it's still not a shoo-in with Cuba's talent and the random draw.

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so is it def one guy per weight? This makes this tournament really scary for us at 57 65 and 86, wouldn't be surprised if we came away without qualifying one or more weights unfortunately 

All world, olympic, or related qualifying events are always 1 guy per nation per weight, unfortunately.  

 

If you're just following it closely for the first time, we failed to qualify 60kg until the international qualifiers during the last cycle.  Humphrey got upset at worlds in the match that would have qualified the weight, then Bunch lost to Bonne in a bad-draw semi-final at the Pan Am qualifier.  Bunch then traveled to the first international qualifier and took 3rd place to qualify the weight.  Those events are a scary proposition also, though, because a couple other regions are more loaded than ours and there can be some unlucky losers from strong wrestling nations.  If you get drawn in with them...tough luck.  

 

Only Russia, Iran, Georgia, Kazakhstan and us qualified all 7 freestyle weights in the last cycle.  Even Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and others missed at least one weight.  No nation qualified all weights for all 3 styles--even Russia missed out on a Greco weight and a women's weight.  Fortunately, we managed to qualify all but Greco 96kg.

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I really like having to qualify the weight.   And if you can't get the weight qualified, it's not like you're losing anything, only the weight class winner loses, as he fails to go to the Olympic games.   His country doesn't lose out, he isn't good enough to place anyways.   I think that's one of the things I like most about the Olympics (for wrestling)   You have to qualify to get there.   Of course this is established countries.   I'm aware others get freebies in an effort to grow and promote the sport.   I don't have a problem with the Kenyan for example getting in and then dismantled in round 1.   But among the power countries, qualifying is a good thing 

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Have no idea who will win the Trials at 57.

 

Side note: He may not have been the most athletic or talented wrestler up there, and even though he only went 2-2 at the Yarygin, I loved the way Daniel Dennis wrestled up there. Takedowns to guts, upper body throws, aggressive takedowns, non stop action, he put it on the mat.

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Given Gilman's past wins over Tomassello in freestyle, it is interesting to me that he isn't qualified/didn't show up for a qualifier yet (like how we saw Tomasselo do mid seasons).  I guess he wrestles Ramos/Dennis in the room and knows they are on a different level.  Same goes for Nico who in theory is on their level as well.  

Edited by Billyhoyle

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