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maligned

Projecting the Olympic Trials field: 86kg

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Let's take a stab at projecting the field and seeds for 86kg:

 

In:

Herbert

Ruth

Dake

Taylor

Gavin

Reader

R. Perry

Foster

Caldwell

Trotman

 

2 Pan Am events:

(no additional qualifiers, but I'll guess Herbert qualifies the weight here)

 

NCAA champ at 184:

Dean

 

Final Trials Qualifier:

Keddy

 

Potential Bracket with Seeds, based on the criteria outlined in the selection procedures document:

 

1. Herbert

bye

Trotman

8. Foster

5. Gavin

bye

bye

4. Ruth

3. Taylor

bye

Dean

6. Reader

7. R. Perry

Keddy

bye

2. Dake

 

Lots of interesting questions here: Can we qualify the weight against a strong Pan Am and world field?  Will Dake and Taylor continue to settle into the weight in terms of conditioning and pace?  How legit was the Taylor over Ruth result?  Will Herbert be fully healthy to make a run?  Does any of it matter in terms of threatening for a medal, with our best guy being past his prime, the next two being new to the weight and not looking all-world yet, and the fourth a total enigma?  

Edited by maligned

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Pat Downey may fare well with the above competition.  Rather strong and has some game.

 

He may, but I couldn't find space for Winn to get a seed or Richard Perry to even make it into the bracket--and both those guys beat Downey at the US Open.  Everybody listed above has either finished ahead of Downey this year or is a new prospect.

Edited by maligned

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Well the two guys that intrigue me are Clayton Foster, if he can develop a gas tank, there is potential there, look at his World Cup matches in 2014. I know those matches are what they are, but it shows that the potential is there. The other guy is does as rumor have it, does Mcintosh make the cut to 86 Kg. He's short and stocky maybe too much so for 97 Kg. But 86 Kg. ? Could be very interesting. Anyway this is one of our weight classes where we need so magic to happen. Otherwise I think we wind up with Herbert again. And he's a great guy, great smile, and personality, but I think he's hit a wall internationally.

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Well at this point in time, it does appear that Herbert's international career may have run it's course, but you know I'm not so sure that the answer lies with any of our other current 86 Kg. guys. Although Gavin and Ruth our skilled, and have shown that they can beat other international guys, I just don't think they can win enough matches to win a medal. ( and is Ruth even still available ) ? Could it be Reader, ? Idk, I think he has become too dependent on his chest lock, to become an actual medal threat, against the other top level international guys. It may be that this class might be up for grabs, depending if the new challenger can get past Herbert. And who that might be, not sure. Could it be Foster? Gabe Dean, ? Maybe a cut down Mcintosh, maybe a bulked up Taylor. Maybe one of the Valencia's, ( though they will probably go Jr.'s again though IMO ), could it be someone we're not even talking about?, But let's hope that something good happens.

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I think the new blood per say here is Dean, MM, and Taylor. I think all of them could beat Herbert but I though Ruth was a for sure win over Herbert also. Deep weight in the USA but I think none of those guys are medal threats. hope I am wrong. 

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PRyan, perhaps your right, but maybe some early season international tourneys will give us an indication, maybe some one will come along and have an extraordinary year like Coleman Scott or Jake Varner had in 2012, or like Kyle Snyder and James Green had this year.

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It simply doesn't make sense to me how Herbert dominated Ruth twice. That still doesnt make sense to me. Of the new blood that will enter this weight in Taylor, Dean and MM the only guy with the horsepower is Dean. You need horsepower to win. See Varner and Snyder. Tech skills are high with MM and Taylor but I just don't see them doing it basically because of strength. I truly can not see any of our current 86kers as medal threats. Hard to believe MM and Taylor could be at the same weight!!!    

Edited by PRyan2012

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2 things here:

 

1 - I love Herbert, but I want anybody besides him to make the team.  Domestically, he's amazing, but on the international scene, he's not very good.  

 

2.  I predict David Taylor to make the team here.  I'm not in the know, but I imagine that DT gets the best of Ruth (they were on the same team and 1 weight class apart throughout college) and that's motivating enough.  I bet that Taylor fills into the position and beats Herbert and takes the spot.  If he continues his run, he's actually a medal threat.  He's recently had some international success, including 2 golds this past summer.   

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If it's really true that David Taylor was weighing 80 Kg. When he wrestled the Cuban for beat the streets, this has some positives and some negatives. The positive is that looking at DT's physique, he looked good, so 6 Kg. of muscle will be easier to pack on than 12 Kg. The negative is that, was DT's weight a factor in that match with the Cuban? Also the Cuban is a 74 Kg. guy, we will have to see how DT fares against the quality international 86 Kg. guys.

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The Cuban also weighed on around 80.

 

Ruth wrestled really, really badly vs Herbert. He went to his back repeatedly and was extremely sloppy.

 

Motivated, focused, tactically sound Ruth would probably win this weight. As for Foster, big fan, but seems like one of those guys who has trouble putting it all together. One thing I've noticed is his legs are pretty easy to get to. He's a great scrambler and can often counter guys, but not often enough to win trials.

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The Cuban also weighed on around 80.

 

Ruth wrestled really, really badly vs Herbert. He went to his back repeatedly and was extremely sloppy.

 

Motivated, focused, tactically sound Ruth would probably win this weight. As for Foster, big fan, but seems like one of those guys who has trouble putting it all together. One thing I've noticed is his legs are pretty easy to get to. He's a great scrambler and can often counter guys, but not often enough to win trials.

"focused, tactically sound" Ruth would be an Olympic medalist and a handful for anyone, even you know who.  The problem is that we've only seen motivated, talented Ruth and unmotivated, talented Ruth.  I'm not sure we've gotten to the point in his career just yet where there's been a "focused, tactically sound" Ruth in freestyle--and it's looking like we probably never will have that possibility.

Edited by maligned

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If it's really true that David Taylor was weighing 80 Kg. When he wrestled the Cuban for beat the streets, this has some positives and some negatives. The positive is that looking at DT's physique, he looked good, so 6 Kg. of muscle will be easier to pack on than 12 Kg. The negative is that, was DT's weight a factor in that match with the Cuban? Also the Cuban is a 74 Kg. guy, we will have to see how DT fares against the quality international 86 Kg. guys.

The problem is that he probably eventually wants to have added bone density and muscle that allow him to be working out in the 195-205 region before making the quick cut down to 189.  So he still probably wants to add more like 12kg rather than 6kg, eventually.  

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