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maligned

Projecting the Olympic Trials field: 125kg

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Best guesses at 125kg:

 

In:
Dlagnev

Rey

Gwiazdowski
Bradley

Fortune

Telford

Thompson

Medbery

Grant

Nelson

Meuleners

 

2 Pan Am events:
(No one new, but I'll guess that Rey qualifies the weight as Dlagnev continues to get back to top form)

NCAA champ at HWT:
Gwiz...no additional bid

Final Trials Qualifier:
McMullan

Potential Bracket with Seeds, based on the criteria outlined in the selection procedures document:

1. Rey (automatic #1, assuming he qualifies the weight at Pan Am's)
bye

Meuleners
8. Thompson
5. Fortune
Grant
bye
4. Bradley
3. Gwiazdowski
bye
McMullan
6. Telford
7. Nelson
Medbery
bye
2. Dlagnev

Edited by maligned

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Got to have Tervel healthy. NO one else can medal. Disc injuries are tricky. Same think happened to Gutches after 2000 open. NO matter what you do you can not really recover from those. Back and neck disc injuries are almost always career ending. I hope Tervel takes it easy and saves himself for two events OTT and Olympics. 

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Well if Trevel is injured to the point he has to call it a day, we will all be disappointed, but if that's the case, this is another weight class where we're going to need something or someone to emerge. I don't know how this year's trials will unfold, but you would have to think that Adam Coon (based on his Jr. World success) would have a pretty good chance of being the heir apparent.

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Well if Trevel is injured to the point he has to call it a day, we will all be disappointed, but if that's the case, this is another weight class where we're going to need something or someone to emerge. I don't know how this year's trials will unfold, but you would have to think that Adam Coon (based on his Jr. World success) would have a pretty good chance of being the heir apparent.

In my opinion, success at the upper couple weights at the cadet or junior level can be a good indicator--but is not a 100% indicator of future success because of the possibility that a guy who's arrived at physical peak early in life can gain a significant boost just from physicality and win more than he should when we consider only his skill level.  In my opinion, Coon hasn't shown anything suggesting he's nearly as technical or advanced as Gwiz at this point if we're looking for an heir apparent (but I'm not sure gwiz is going to be there yet next year either).  Footwork and nuanced attacking have to be at an unbelievably high level to succeed at 125kg at the international senior level.  I'm not sure anyone other than Tervel is at the level to be a medal threat in '16, but I especially don't think Coon is that guy yet, unfortunately.

Edited by maligned

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Malinged, you might be right it could be Gwiz, it could be someone else. But Coon ( and I'm only saying this because he has both a Freestyle and a Greco Jr. Bronze ), so I believed it shows that he can succeed on the international level. I understand that Jr.'s isn't Sr's, and if this was Folkstyle, I would say okay, Gwiz is probably our guy. But we're talking Freestyle. So in my mind I don't think we have a clear favorite, so we're going to have a demolishing derby, and when the smoke clears, hopefully we have a larger version of Kyle Snyder, Lol.

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I wonder if Varner is big enough to go Hwt.

People keep talking about this, but i just don't see it.  The top international heavies (our best included) are tall behemoths with long arms and tons of leverage in every position.  I just don't see Varner having that type of body, even if you told me he could step on a scale at 240 pounds and not look too bad.

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Rey is the clear #2 at this point. in Vegas, he lost 6-1 to Zaseev, who beat Dlagnev 6-2 in at the 2013 worlds. Rey has beaten every heavyweight of note in the western hemisphere, including Dlagnev. 

 

if anyone overtakes Rey or Dlagnev for the top spot I'm guessing it will be Gwiz or some other younger guy. 

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I think Varner could win it but is to small. He and Gatsalov are about the same size with Varner maybe a bit bigger. But I think some lesser skilled heavies, due to shear size, would beat Varner at times. Rey does not have enough offense to win a medal here. He is big and strong enough though so maybe he will improve. Gwiz is not much bigger than Varner but has mad skills-reminds me of Lou Bananch-a true 220 guy. I would prefer Gwiz over Rey because of offense plain and simple. I hope Tervel can be there 100%-disc issues are tough ones to overcome-my prayers are with him.

 

Nobody is beating Akgul if he is healthy. He is the reason Gatsalov is going back to 213 his last year in 2016.

Edited by PRyan2012

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Was just watching a few Taha Akgul (TUR) matches on youtube, and didn't realize how much offense this guy has for a heavyweight. Beautiful assortment of takedowns right to trapped arm guts, or killer leg laces, or whatever, for tech falls. Fun to watch.

 

Would love to see Zach Rey open it up like that. 

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Well IMO, I don't think Rey has the offense to be a legit medal threat. I just don't think there is enough time between now and the trials for him to develop the offense he needs. In his post interview at the World's he said that his strategy was to wear his opponent down and look for a scoring opportunity. I get that Heavyweights are a different animal and have to play a more of a strategic game, but if you look at the top Heavyweights they have more of an offensive game than Rey. I hope like probably everyone is that Dlagnev is healthy and ready to go. However, if he isn't, it should be a fun free for all to watch.

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My point is, after all the years wrestling in Jersey, then Lehigh (wins NCAA title), then some successful international experience, Zach probably does have the offense to contend for a medal. It's just not his strategy, as you pointed out, and as he said in the interview.

 

But I'd bet the house that Zach could hit takedowns into nasty guts and leg laces too, if he just tried it more often.

 

 

And yes, some of the HWT young bucks are real tough also and will contend. ( But gotta get the weight qualified first.)

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My point is, after all the years wrestling in Jersey, then Lehigh (wins NCAA title), then some successful international experience, Zach probably does have the offense to contend for a medal. It's just not his strategy, as you pointed out, and as he said in the interview.

 

But I'd bet the house that Zach could hit takedowns into nasty guts and leg laces too, if he just tried it more often.

 

 

And yes, some of the HWT young bucks are real tough also and will contend. ( But gotta get the weight qualified first.)

It's pretty ridiculous to suggest that the reason Zach Rey can't score like Akgul is because he doesn't try enough.  I get it that he may be better if he were to open up his offense, but to suggest that would put him in medal contention is a pretty big stretch.  

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Not saying that Zach is on 2x defending World champion Akgul's offensive level. By no means.

 

But go back and look at Zach's one and done World match. He didn't try anything offensively, and he even said in his post match interview that his strategy was to wear the opponent down. Again, not disrespecting Zach, or Coach Buxton, but when I see Akgul go out there and just light up the scoreboard time and time again (and it looks like he's having fun at it), and then watch Zach go out there and just hand fight, tie up, and pummel, it's frustrating. 

 

(Ok, maybe Robby Smith spoiled me a little too when I saw him constantly attacking and trying to score points - and he came very close to pinning Makhov for the bronze at that.)

 

Having said all that, this may be a moot point because:

 

a) There is no guarantee that Zach will win the Trials, and

 

b) This weight class still has to get qualified for Rio

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Well Zach Rey has his work cut out for him that is for sure, as far as Robby Smith is concerned, I was there, and Makhov was not only pinned but even gave up. Unfortunately for all of us U.S. fans, the ref was out taking a leisurely stroll around the other side of the mat and missed it. As far as the the rest of the field we shall see, perhaps we will find out if Gwiz can present a challenge.

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Gwiz is like JD Bergman's size. Solid 230 and short. Great offense though. I just think he will split his matches here and not be a medal threat. Although better than Rey who is a true heavy but has no offense kind of like Mocco. I would say Coon can maybe be the guy who is big enough and has the offense like Tervel to compete for a title but that is a big if. Hopefully another young buck will emerge here. Our potential heavy reps for 2016:

 

Fortune..Big enough and decent offense but can not win the big match ever!

Tervel...our rep if healthy but disc issues are the worst and I doubt he makes it

Varner..he could win our trials but is simply to small to win it at the next level

Gwiz...barely big enough with great offense. I like him to be our rep

Snyder..he could win it but is to small also

Coon...not yet but the next cycle I like him because of size and offense...he should to take over here in 2017.

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I didn't think Gwiz was weighing over 250-dang. Looks about 230 to me. Tony has the size and maybe I am overlooking him for some reason and not sure why. I don't think it is hard for Varner to make 213 after hearing him say he stays around 220-225 in the off season so that leads me to believe he would not be big enough for a heavy run.

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