Updated Ratings for International Freestyle Nations

[maligned 529]

The following ratings now include all 1550 matches from 2011-15 worlds/olympics/olympic qualifiers involving the 29 nations who genuinely invest in freestyle and have a chance to win matches.  These are "team" ratings that put each nation's match by match results in the context of the opponent difficulty they have faced.  The rating represents roughly double what their individuals' total winning percentage would be if all individuals wrestled a round-robin against all other nations listed here.  This year's results are weighted slightly more than 2011-14.

 

For more explanation and pre-2015 ratings, go here: http://board.themat.com/index.php?/topic/7685-computer-ratings-for-international-mens-freestyle-nations/?hl=%2Bcomputer+%2Bratings

 

Rk  Nation           Rating

1.   Russia           172

2.   Iran                162

3.   Azerbaijan     144

4.   United States 140

5.   Georgia          132

6.   Turkey            131

7.   Ukraine          118

8.   Uzbekistan    116

9.   Cuba             113

10. Belarus          111

11. Kazakhstan    110

12. Japan             108

13. Mongolia        107

14. Bulgaria          104

15. India               100

16. N. Korea          90

17. Armenia           88

18. Kyrgyzstan       83

19. Romania          80

20. Moldova          77

21. Canada            74

22. Poland             72

23. Puerto Rico      71

24. Hungary           70

25. Germany          66

26. China               65

27. South Korea    59

28. Venezuela        56

29. Tajikistan          55

All other nations     29

 

Biggest ratings point movers after 2015 worlds: 

Positive: Mongolia +12, Venezuela +9, Turkey +5, Bulgaria/S.Korea/U.S. +4

Negative: Tajikistan -12, Puerto Rico -10, Hungary/Cuba -8, Kazakhstan -7

Edited October 2, 2015 by maligned

[maligned 529]

I think some of the people giving negative feedback about our 2015 performance might be surprised to see we actually improved our rating.  I've said it before in other threads: I'm not an excuse maker.  I'm a fact giver.  And the fact is that we didn't have friendly draws overall compared to other nations.  We wrestled the 5th most matches of anyone, yet 15 nations faced 4 to 7 opponents from the "all other nations" category that will never beat top countries' wrestlers--while we faced only 3 of this type.  Don't be fooled by the simplistic UWW scoring system--our 8 performances this year stack up well against everybody's 8 performances except for Russia and Iran when you consider who they wrestled and who we wrestled.  Even Iran would trade their performance for 2 golds (1/3 of the Olympic weights!!) and a bronze in a heartbeat.  

Edited September 28, 2015 by maligned

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,050]

great stuff - thanks for posting. can you tell from your data who the best of the "all other nations" are? what would it take for a team to move into the 'competitive' top 28?

[maligned 529]

These nations are the 25 nations that have a 75%+ weight class participation rate at worlds/olympics, plus Cuba (60%), Puerto Rico (50%), and North Korea (35%), whom I've included because of their success and whose ratings are what they are despite me assigning them very low theoretical success in weights they don't fill.  No other nation comes very close to 75% participation nor wins matches outside of a random individual.  Two nations that come to mind that could make an impact might be Egypt, who have been known to win some matches from time to time but who enter very few individuals outside of Olympic years, and Mexico, who have a growing participation rate that could lead to success if they started winning some matches.

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,050]

thanks maligned! would be great for the US if Mexico elevated their program. also hoping Colombia and Brazil grow their participation. the more western hemisphere wrestling the better. 

[armspin 257]

Egypt is (or, at least was) a world power in Greco. Freestyle secondary to them- I've heard their fs guys are Greco guys who didn't make the cut.

[Shiraz123 829]

Did Egypt have medalists outside of Gaber? As far as I knew (which is not much)  Gaber was kind of just a freak outlier who was able to break through in terms of their wrestling programs. Was there a time when they were producing consistent high level guys? 

[armspin 257]

The 84 kg (Abdel Fatah?) won worlds as well.

 

I know other Egyptians have been top 10 type guys, not sure how many won world medals.

[maligned 529]

Did Egypt have medalists outside of Gaber? As far as I knew (which is not much)  Gaber was kind of just a freak outlier who was able to break through in terms of their wrestling programs. Was there a time when they were producing consistent high level guys? 

There hasn't been a time they've produced "consistent high level guys," but they're not always the push-overs of other typical nations in the "all other nations" category. 

 

Egypt in freestyle at the Olympics in 2012:

55kg: Took Khinchegashvili to 3 periods

60kg: Beat long-time irritant Pais of France (Pais beat Hump at worlds the year before, for example) and went 3 periods with 5th place Ri of N. Korea

120kg: Scored a couple points on Dlagnev and lost 0-1 in the second

 

They also qualified two more guys at the Olympics that ended up being walkovers for the opponents (not sure why).  Again, I just mention them to say they seem to be a nation that could be something if they consistently sent guys and gave them a chance to develop.  But they don't.

 

And you're right...they're more about Greco, where they have even better results than above.  And I don't believe Gabar was a freak thing, per se.  Greco is totally different from freestyle where a wide variety of nations have contenders.  There are only a couple of positions to master and a few tactics can go a long, long way.  If you get a guy from any nation that's been trained well in them and has a good physical makeup, he can be great.

Edited September 28, 2015 by maligned

[wrestfan 826]

 

They also qualified two more guys at the Olympics that ended up being walkovers for the opponents (not sure why)

 

They didn't know the last day competition (66kg, 97kg) will start a little earlier comparing to other day and missed the competition since they arrived late !!!

[maligned 529]

great stuff - thanks for posting. can you tell from your data who the best of the "all other nations" are? what would it take for a team to move into the 'competitive' top 28?

To further illustrate the lack of other nations "waiting in the wings":  except for Cuban transplant Chamizo, whom I excluded for being an extreme outlier, the "all other nations" category had a record of 6 and 92 this year against the "core 28" at the world championships.

[maligned 529]

great stuff - thanks for posting. can you tell from your data who the best of the "all other nations" are? what would it take for a team to move into the 'competitive' top 28?

I did some more checking on this question.  The Olympic qualifying process is when to check for this because you've got multiple tournaments where you could see teams compete and find out if they can win matches against established nations.

 

I forgot about Tajikistan.  I just don't have them in the ratings because their participation is so low most years; but if they brought teams consistently, I'd bet that they would be as good as Moldova/Romania/Kyrgyzstan range.  In the Olympic year, they tried to qualify all 7 weights.  Of these, they beat teams from the "core 28" at 4 different weight classes along the way and won a total of 10 matches over those nations (no other nation had more than 2 wins of this type in all of the qualifying and Olympics themselves).  They qualified 4 guys for the Olympics and won a match.

 

Other facts from the Olympic year:

--Egypt qualified 6 guys and all that participated at the Olympics were very competitive with one winning a match over a past high placer in Pais of France.  Their 7th guy was one spot from qualification also.

--Latvia, France (as mentioned), Greece, and Mexico all qualified a guy through non-Africa/Oceania paths (Africa/Oceania are all non-core 28 nations).  Latvia won one match at the Olympics.  Greece and Mexico both had 2 core-28 victories to get their qualifiers.

--Guinea-Bissau won a match at the Olympics (over a "core-28" nation).

--Albania, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Lithuania, Macedonia, Peru, Slovakia, Spain, and Switzerland (11 nations) also had 1 victory over core-28 nations during qualifying.  No additional nations had wins of this type.

--Egypt, Greece, and Tajikistan attempted to qualify 7 of 7 weights. 

--Chad, Colombia, Great Britain, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, and Spain attempted to qualify 6 weights.

--Australia, Iraq, and Slovakia attempted to qualify 5 weights.

 

An average of a whopping 53 nations per weight attempted to qualify.  To compare, the average world championships participation at the 6 Olympic weights this year was 42.

 

I wonder what would happen in the 14 "non-core" nations with 5+ attempted weights if all those guys were supported all through the Olympic cycle and not just once every 4 years.  It would be pretty amazing to add another 10 or 12 nations to the core group.

Edited September 30, 2015 by maligned

[quanon 161]

Off topic, but why isn't Turkmenistan on the wrestling radar?  Do they specialize in a different combat sport?

[maligned 529]

Not sure about Turkmenistan.  Population is, I'm sure, one factor.  It's the smallest in its region and only about 1/6th of Uzbekistan and 1/15th of Iran.  They tried to qualify 4 of 7 Olympic weights in 2012 and their couple guys at worlds always seem reasonably competitive.  But they don't beat real wrestling nations.

[quanon 161]

Not sure about Turkmenistan.  Population is, I'm sure, one factor.  It's the smallest in its region and only about 1/6th of Uzbekistan and 1/15th of Iran.  They tried to qualify 4 of 7 Olympic weights in 2012 and their couple guys at worlds always seem reasonably competitive.  But they don't beat real wrestling nations.

Population could be a factor, but they still have a population 7 times the size of Ossetia.  It's just a little surprising because the most of the other central Asian nations (and Turkey) have significant wrestling cultures.

 

Afghanistan could be thrown in there as well, but war has probably interfered with training for decades.

[Shiraz123 829]

A wiki search shows that Turkmenistan has never won a medal in any sport at the Olympics. Doesn't seem to specialise in any sport at all. 

[armspin 257]

Is South Africa anywhere close to the top 28?

 

I know they win matches against core 28 nations, and they've had guys place top 10 at worlds. Maybe not consistently enough though.

[maligned 529]

Is South Africa anywhere close to the top 28?

 

I know they win matches against core 28 nations, and they've had guys place top 10 at worlds. Maybe not consistently enough though.

The last 4 worlds (2011, 2013-15), they've entered 10 weight classes and won one match.  That win was against Japan, in fact (a core nation), but at 96kg; and Japan doesn't beat anyone good at the upper weights.  Their other 9 guys all lost right away, including a few to non-core nations.  

 

In the Olympic year, they didn't send their team to the African qualifier for some reason.  It seems like they could have gotten a guy or two through.  They did, however, try to qualify 6 weights at the two international qualifiers and two of their guys combined for 3 total victories over non-core nations.

 

In short, unfortunately they don't come that close in that 5-year period to being separated from the "all other nations" category.

Edited September 30, 2015 by maligned

[armspin 257]

Thanks.

 

Bit of a downfall from when Heinrich Barnes was wrestling for them.

[maligned 529]

Ratings updated to include Tajikistan now.  Thanks, Jaroslav, and others for asking good questions and prompting me to re-check some lesser nations.  Because Tajikistan only sent 2 guys in each of '13 and '14, I had thought this was a trend and that they only cared about the Olympic year.  But they sent full teams -1 in 2011 and this year, meaning they've filled 24 of 37 weights the last 5 years.

 

They actually would have been even with Germany in 26th place last season had I included them, but they had an awful 1-7 record this year and dropped back to 29th.

 

No other nation comes close to meeting any criteria of participation or match wins to separate themselves from the "all other nations" category.

Edited October 2, 2015 by maligned

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,050]

great stuff maligned. I like the method of seeing which weights each nation tries to qualify for the Olympics. never would have thought of it myself. must take a good amount of research but it is appreciated!