Most likely scenario for this weekend: we fail to qualify at least 1 weight in all 3 styles...over/unders for all 3 styles

[maligned 528]

The next 3 days will be highly intriguing.  Greco-Roman is always going to be a challenge for us until our program makes gains.  Men's freestyle will be more precarious than normal because of the glut of top guys that failed to qualify weights for their countries (namely, Cuba).  And our women had an abnormally disappointing performance in the olympic weights at worlds.  Couple that with atrocious draws they've received for today's action, and we could potentially fail to qualify 3 or even 4 ladies' weights on a bad day.

 

I would estimate over/unders to qualify via the Pan Am qualifier as follows:

 

Women: 2.5 out of 5

Why so low?  Ladies' wrestling in the Americas is advancing at breakneck speed.  We're legitimate slight underdogs to advance from our bracket halves in 4 of the 5 weights because of awful draws.  Even in the 5th, we're only a prohibitive favorite to advance: something like 75/45/45/45/40% chances at the 5 weights.  

 

Greco: 2.5 out of 4

Lots of good talent here, and we're simply not overpowering at any weight.  A lot depends on draws, so we could get all 4 through; but there are scenarios where we only get 1 or 2.

 

Freestyle: 2.5 out of 4

I would say 3 is more likely than 2, but we can't push this over/under number any higher since there are guys who are significant favorites over us at 2 weights and other potential upset traps in at least 3 of the 4 weights.  I'd put us at about 90/70/50/50% chances of advancing, depending on draws, for Tervel, Metcalf, Ramos, and Herbert, respectively.  

-Tervel should advance, but his health and Alpajon Estevez leave small question marks.

-Metcalf, for all the crowdedness in this weight, is a favorite against all of the other contenders.  Gomez has faded some.  I don't think Garcia beats Metcalf at this point in his career.  And Montero and Guzman (Colombia/Venezuela) are the type of guys the steady, unspectacular Metcalf rolls through.  That leaves Valdes, who I think Metcalf also beats the majority of the time.  Every guy here is a potential upset, and the random draw leaves the chance that he has to beat 2 or 3 of them, so we can't push Metcalf's probability much higher than about 70%; but he's a favorite.

-Ramos is about 90% sure to go through if he's not on Bonne's side and about 10% sure if he is...a simple coin flip probability for advancement at this weight in my mind.

-I think Herbert beats Salas about 20% of the time if they meet, but the fact that Jake could lose to Espinal or Ceballos sometimes too makes this a tricky weight.  Thankfully, there's always a chance Espinal/Ceballos upset Salas again too, so I'd put this weight at about 50%

 

As an optimistic fan, I think we end up with 3 or 4 in all styles, but the math doesn't add up to over/unders any better than the above.  There are scenarios where we only get 6 or 7 of the 13 weights qualified, so here's hoping we get more like 10-plus!

Edited March 4, 2016 by maligned

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,047]

great analysis. I think Gomez representing PR is going to be tough at 65 too. 

[maligned 528]

great analysis. I think Gomez representing PR is going to be tough at 65 too. 

I said Morales...meant Gomez.  Franklin Morales is a major league pitcher that was hiding somewhere in my subconscious.   :)

Edited March 4, 2016 by maligned

[Coach_J 2,180]

I said Morales...meant Gomez.  Franklin Morales is a major league pitcher that was hiding somewhere in my subconscious.   :)

What weight does Morales pitch at?

[maligned 528]

Wow, not a great start.  Erin Clodgo turns the tables on the Cuban who beat her at worlds to qualify our only weight of the day at 63kg.  Three of the four girls I mentioned as slight underdogs lost, as did the slightly favored Conder.  We're 1 for 5 heading into men's competition.

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,047]

yeah, bit of a bloodbath for our ladies. Ragan lost with a 4pt 2nd period lead had to have been frustrating. any other bids will have to be earned at either Mongolia or Turkey

[maligned 528]

What weight does Morales pitch at?

He pitches left-handed at 95kg for the Royals.

[Gantry 1,872]

Wait, why wasn't Maroulis there?  She won the wrestleoff, did she get hurt? 

Edited March 5, 2016 by Gantry

[Cletus_Tucker 890]

2/4 for the freestylers.   The Brent loss really hurts USA.   Herbert ran into Salas, what can one say?  

[2td3nf 582]

So does USA get 1 or 2 more shots to qualify? Can they send the same weight class to both Mongolia and Turkey, if they have to?

[maligned 528]

So does USA get 1 or 2 more shots to qualify? Can they send the same weight class to both Mongolia and Turkey, if they have to?

Yes