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TBar1977

Scary Statistic if you want to pick against Penn State

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Penn State had 5 wrestlers (Conaway, Nolf, Morelli, Cutch, Nevills) under perform relative to their seed at Big 10's and they still won by the largest margin they have ever won by at Big10's.

 

Earlier in the year they won by their largest margin ever at The Southern Scuffle as well. 

 

If Penn State shows up at NCAA's and wrestle to their ability then some other team will need to wrestle completely out of their minds to beat them. 

 

 

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I don't think anyone beats PSU except PSU.

 

OSU is wrestling great right now with 133,149,157,184,197 wrestling by far the best of their lives, and the other 5 weight classes at almost peak form.  And I don't think they have a chance unless PSU loses some guys unexpectedly.  The combination of Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, and Mcintosh is awesome.  If you were to add up the near certain, worst case scenario points from...

 

Nico 3rd

Retherford 1st

Nolf 3rd

Nickal 1st

McIntosh 2nd

 

These 5 guys alone plus bonus might win the tournament, and that doesn't even consider Conaway, Guilobon, McCutcheon.  

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I don't think anyone beats PSU except PSU.

 

OSU is wrestling great right now with 133,149,157,184,197 wrestling by far the best of their lives, and the other 5 weight classes at almost peak form.  And I don't think they have a chance unless PSU loses some guys unexpectedly.  The combination of Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, and Mcintosh is awesome.  If you were to add up the near certain, worst case scenario points from...

 

Nico 3rd

Retherford 1st

Nolf 3rd

Nickal 1st

McIntosh 2nd

 

These 5 guys alone plus bonus might win the tournament, and that doesn't even consider Conaway, Guilobon, McCutcheon.  

 

In fairness, worst case scenario for those 5 guys is more like:

 

Nico - 4 (Tomasello, Dance, Gilman...all monsters)

Zain - 1 (L word)

Nolf - 3 (seeding ****job)

Nickal - 3 (dropping a head scratcher early i.e. Jackson)

MorMac - 3 (he's struggled with Hartmann so if he sees him in the semis or something like that, it could be problematic)

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After watching last night, I see almost no way Nickal loses to anyone in this field.  You need offense to take him out.  Otherwise you are just sitting there letting him tee off on you.  I don't see any of the top guys at 174 that can do it.  They will all sit back and try to slow him down, some might have a little success and keep him in single digits, but none will win.

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After watching last night, I see almost no way Nickal loses to anyone in this field.  You need offense to take him out.  Otherwise you are just sitting there letting him tee off on you.  I don't see any of the top guys at 174 that can do it.  They will all sit back and try to slow him down, some might have a little success and keep him in single digits, but none will win.

 

I agree that he's the class of the weight for sure but that loss to Jackson still has me a little nervous. His high-risk style leaves him open even if he scrambles extremely well and is positionally sound. I'm just playing Devil's advocate in the interest of fairness. 

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I agree that he's the class of the weight for sure but that loss to Jackson still has me a little nervous. His high-risk style leaves him open even if he scrambles extremely well and is positionally sound. I'm just playing Devil's advocate in the interest of fairness. 

 

Before the Big 10s I agreed with this logic, but after watching the Big 10s he didn't really put himself in danger at all.  I think he is wrestling more composed than he was earlier in the year.  He's not going to beat himself.

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I have 6 AA's and a ton of WB and bonus points. For PSU to lose they have to have a near collapse and OSU has to have the tournament of their lives. Would be much more interesting if OSU had a healthy 133 pounder or if tOSU had a healthy Stieber.

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After watching last night, I see almost no way Nickal loses to anyone in this field. You need offense to take him out. Otherwise you are just sitting there letting him tee off on you. I don't see any of the top guys at 174 that can do it. They will all sit back and try to slow him down, some might have a little success and keep him in single digits, but none will win.

Realbuto has the best chance

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Penn State had 5 wrestlers (Conaway, Nolf, Morelli, Cutch, Nevills) under perform relative to their seed at Big 10's and they still won by the largest margin they have ever won by at Big10's.

 

Earlier in the year they won by their largest margin ever at The Southern Scuffle as well. 

 

If Penn State shows up at NCAA's and wrestle to their ability then some other team will need to wrestle completely out of their minds to beat them. 

thats not a statistic. the superficiality of your intellect shines again

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Realbuto has the best chance

I agree.  He at least has the offense to go at him.  Ramos is quick enough to make it interesting, but I think when Ramos shoots a low shot, Nickal probably pulls his jump over/behind for two as often as not.  Rogers could fall right because he's dangerous, but Nickal is a nightmare body type for Rogers to wrestle.  So really it comes down to him throwing himself to his back, which I think is unlikely, or a guy like Realbuto being in good enough shape to trade with him for 7 minutes without fading and coming out on top more often than not.  

 

I think I'd make Nickal about as big a lock as anyone outside of 149 and 165.  I think Garrett is probably better, but I think there are 2-3 guys at 133 better than anyone at 174 Nickal will wrestle.  Dean is probably in the same range odds wise in my mind.  

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I have 6 AA's and a ton of WB and bonus points. For PSU to lose they have to have a near collapse and OSU has to have the tournament of their lives. Would be much more interesting if OSU had a healthy 133 pounder or if tOSU had a healthy Stieber.

If OSU had Brock in top form, they would have a shot here.

 

If tOSU had Hunter and had the success of last year (people way outperforming their seed) they could win it.

 

Or if we combine the OSUs...

 

Kind of wish they had a penn state vs the world tournament this year.

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7 to 8 AA is a real stretch for PSU.  They have 9 Qualifiers and Gulibon, McCutcheon, are long shots at best.  Conway has been consistent but is in a deep weight.  He will have to wrestle better than he did @ B 10s to make the podium. That being said PSUs big 5 will score enough that it will be hard for any other team to keep pace with them.  All 5 could win and barring a major melt down all will place high.  Don't forget a 3rd place finish with 6 bonus points is about equal to a champ with all decisions.  PSUs stars are bonus point machines.

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7 to 8 AA is a real stretch for PSU.  They have 9 Qualifiers and Gulibon, McCutcheon, are long shots at best.  Conway has been consistent but is in a deep weight.  He will have to wrestle better than he did @ B 10s to make the podium. That being said PSUs big 5 will score enough that it will be hard for any other team to keep pace with them.  All 5 could win and barring a major melt down all will place high.  Don't forget a 3rd place finish with 6 bonus points is about equal to a champ with all decisions.  PSUs stars are bonus point machines.

 

I agree that Guilibon is a long shot but why is McCutcheon? He beat Dudley, nearly teched Zavatsky, was toe to toe with Boyd before the injury, and only has 3 losses on the season that weren't a result of an injury (Brooks, Brown, and Gravina...admittedly a bad loss). Flo had him ranked #3 just 2-3 weeks ago. Unless he gets hurt again, I think R12 is worst case for him. 

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I agree that Guilibon is a long shot but why is McCutcheon? He beat Dudley, nearly teched Zavatsky, was toe to toe with Boyd before the injury, and only has 3 losses on the season that weren't a result of an injury (Brooks, Brown, and Gravina...admittedly a bad loss). Flo had him ranked #3 just 2-3 weeks ago. Unless he gets hurt again, I think R12 is worst case for him. 

Exactly what I was going to say.

 

The only argument would be the injuries he has had recently. If one of the flares up in an early round, he could default

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I agree that Guilibon is a long shot but why is McCutcheon? He beat Dudley, nearly teched Zavatsky, was toe to toe with Boyd before the injury, and only has 3 losses on the season that weren't a result of an injury (Brooks, Brown, and Gravina...admittedly a bad loss). Flo had him ranked #3 just 2-3 weeks ago. Unless he gets hurt again, I think R12 is worst case for him. 

3 reasons:

 

1.)184 is LOADED with returning AA's.

2.)Injuries

3.)Did you watch him at B1G's?  He lost to Gravina.  No offense to Gravina, as he has had a very solid season, but that is the kind of guy that will be trying to win the R16 match just to get to R12.

Edited by MSU158

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I don't think McCutcheon is a long shot, but if someone was to call him that, I assume it would only be because he is about to wrestle in a grueling 3 day tournament after an injury plagued 2nd half that saw him fail to finish matches/tournaments multiple times.  Obviously he has AA talent, but you need to survive 2-3 days healthy to be an AA.  I think it is less than 50/50 at this point that he makes AA given his health and the depth of the weight class.  

Edited by boconnell

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