Way too early roster and NCAA Tournament predictions

[MSU158 1,983]

The Favorite: PSU  After seeing how far they would go in voo-doo hexing OkState with injuries, I know better than to pick against them.

 

125:  All signs point to the standout 2016 recruit, Suriano starting as a True Freshman.  If not, I haven't heard of any transfers and I don't see anyone else in the stable qualifying for Nationals.  Megaludis was able to peak at the end of his True Freshman season, so there is a precedent for True Freshman success.  This weight returns 6 AA's and we could see Micic swap with one of those.  I usually don't pick freshman to AA before they have wrestled a DI match but I can't go against the PSU track record. 8th-6 pts

 

133:  Cortez-He had a very solid redshirt season.  The weight thins out with only 3 AA's returning and DiCamillo.  Brock should be a force here if he returns healthy.  After that they weight is wide open.  I have him at 6th-9.5 pts

 

141:  Gulibon-I still think he would be better at 133, but I just don't see him dropping back down with how successful Cortez was.  This guy is super hard to predict.  Will he have that giant freshman hunger to go out on top?  Or, will HEW get him?  141 remains really deep, with 7 of 8 AA's returning and either Hayes or Jordan slotting in for tOSU.  I see him falling just short in the R12-3pts.

 

149: Retherford-Beast, Hodge and any other trophy available!  1st-28pts

 

157: Nolf-I don't see Martinez going anywhere.  I am also interested to see who progresses more between Nolf, Smith and Palacio.  Still, I can't pick them above Nolf until they prove they deserve it.

2nd-22.5pts

 

165: Joseph-Seems most are high on him, but I still believe Morelli will have something to say about this.  He made them start him this year and Joseph has no track record up at 165.  Either way I simply don't have enough data to pick higher than 2-2. 2pts

 

174: Nickal-For some reason I see a similar to Megaludis trajectory.  He is still a tad bit raw to pick to finish it all and 174 could be better next year if Crutchmer and Realbuto can get healthy along with a possible BoJo move.  Epperly, Jackson, Weatherspoon and Meyer return as well.  Still, he proved he can make the finals and I have him there again.  2nd 20 pts

 

184:  McCutcheon, Rasheed, Phipps, Stout-No matter who it is, I see injuries and question marks.  Rasheed is thought of highly but I think he loses a lot of his danger factor up at a weight that he no longer has a length advantage at.  Cradles will be much more difficult to come by.   I think it will be MCCutcheon in March.  R12-3pts

 

197:  I keep hearing Cassar, although he isn't registered yet.  I will slot him in at 2-2. 2.5pts

 

285: Nevills-I honestly don't know what to predict here.  Injuries are brutal at heavyweight and he didn't wrestle enough in either his redshirt or freshman seasons to get a good gauge.  Still, I will pick him to win twice.  2-2 1.5pts.

 

PSU-98pts  165, 184 and 285 could prove to be better and that would pull them away from the pack.

[MSU158 1,983]

The Contender: Iowa-I like who they return a lot and it looks like they will fill every weight buy 197 with significant improvement from last season.

 

125-Gilman-If rumors of Tomasello having issues with 125 are true, it's very hard to pick anyone over him.  1st-26.5pts

 

133-Clark-The way 133 clears out, I think this weight is Clark's.  The only guy I am afraid of is Brock.  If he can rebound from the injury with no confidence issues, he could do some serious damage.  1st-24.5pts

 

141-Turk-I see him taking some lumps, but he should qualify and win a match.  1-2. 1pt

 

149-Sorenson-Sadly, hear is stuck as the best of the rest.  The only thing that could hurt him is if Tsirtsis comes back revitalized.  For now, 2nd-17.5pts

 

157-Kemerer-This kid looked awesome, but it was at 149.  Will he be able to fill out 157?  I do, however, think 157 is pretty thin after the top 5 or so and I could see him sneaking onto the podium. But,  I can't quite yet.  2-2. 2.5pts

 

165-The Bull-See my write up on Suriano, except I think he is about a half step better and 165 looks quite a bit thinner especially if BoJo moves up.  6th-9.5pts

 

174-Meyer-Drove every Iowa fan CRAZY.  The closest to a spaghetti wrestler Iowa has had in a while.  I think he improves slightly on his finish this season.  7th-8.5pts

 

184-Brooks-He has all the tools to be in the finals.  The problem is so do about 7 other wrestlers at the weight.  I expect him to beat about half of those.  4th-12pts

 

197-Holloway-He may qualify but I haven't seen enough to pick him to win.  0-2. 0pts

 

285-Stoll-He is almost as hard to predict as Nevills.  Knee injuries with his body style are very, very hard to come all the way back from.  I loved his heart and expected to see him on the podium.  Still, I can't pick him there until I see him wrestle.  2-2. 2.5pts

 

Surprisingly, I have Iowa ahead of PSU with 104.5  I am still picking PSU because I expect their unknowns to score more points, I just don't know who it will be.  Iowa, on the other hand, I picked most of their points(nearly 85%) to be scored by their returning AA's.

[21guns 95]

That's right, it was a voodoo hex on Oklahoma State that PSU took their 5th in 6 years, totally dominted and clinched before the finals.

 

LMAO, still waiting for ONE single thread that doesn't feature you hating on PSU.

[MSU158 1,983]

OkState:  Losing Dieringer is a crushing blow.  Still they return quite a bit of scoring potential.

 

125:Piccininni-I keep hearing nothing but good things.  I think he is the guy that beats Suriano for 7th.  7th-8pts

 

133:Brock-This guy's ceiling is as high as anyone at the weight, IF he can return fully healthy.  5th-11pts

 

141:Heil-I see him winning it again, but he just doesn't score bonus pts.  1st-22pts

 

149:Collica-Finally, proved he belongs.  I see him right back where he finished.  4th-14.5pts

 

157:Smith-He will move up.  I am staying a bit conservative on how high.  4th-14.5pts

 

165:Marstellar?-If he is here I still expect good things.  R12-3pts

 

174:Crutchmer/Rogers-I am still a big Crutchmer fan, but can't assess the injury.  7th-8pts

 

184:Boyd-I loved the run but 184 is still very deep, I see him falling back a bit.  6th-9pts

 

197:Weigel/Marsden/Schafer- Hard workers but, not AA's.  2-2. 2pts

 

285:Transfer rumors about.  But, for now, DNQ-0pts.

 

92pts

[MSU158 1,983]

That's right, it was a voodoo hex on Oklahoma State that PSU took their 5th in 6 years, totally dominted and clinched before the finals.

 

LMAO, still waiting for ONE single thread that doesn't feature you hating on PSU.

 

 

Your obsession is getting ridiculous.  Now you are attacking obvious jokes?  That is "hating on PSU"?  Again, you guys look for things that aren't there.  I picked them to win it.  AND I said that AGAIN after actually calculating more points for Iowa.

 

You guys just look for ANYTHING that doesn't paint PSU in the absolute best light and attack from there. C R A Z Y!!!!

[Guest Kingsland]

I don't think you can get more complimentary than his post, hell he had them finishing over Iowa based on gut feeling rather than point total. Cut him some slack yeesh.

[NJwrestlingguy 106]

Rutgers 2016/17...Not a contender but will again be a very good dual meet team (top 10). Just a prediction.

 

 

125- McCabe- NCAA Qualifier

 

133- Delvechio- NCAA Qualifier or Giraldo NCAA Qualifier

 

141- Ashnault- 2X AA

 

149- Dippery- NCAA Qualifier

 

157- Theobold-  NCAA Qualifier

 

165- Lewis- NCAA Qualifier

 

174- Bakuckas- NCAA Qualifier

 

184- Gravina- NCAA Qualifier

 

197- Mulligan- true frosh #6 intermat@195

 

285- Correnti- true frosh #3 intermat @220

Edited April 7, 2016 by NJwrestlingguy

[aknipp 131]

Will Add Nebraska

 

125 Lambert (NQ/R12)

133 Montoya (returning AA, 3rd/4th)

141 Colon McCrystal (possibly true FR CJ Red) NQ

149 Justin Arthur (possibly Jordan Shearer) NQ

157 Ty Berger (NQ/R12)

165 Dustin Williams (or a redshirt FR) NQ

174 Micah Barnes (R12, maybe 7th/8th)

184 Tim Dudley (#2 or #7 this weight is hard to predict)

197 Aaron Studebaker (or Derek White) R12, maybe 7th/8th

HWT Colin Jensen (NQ, win a match or 3)

 

Another 7/8/9/10 finish for NU

[MSU158 1,983]

tOSU:  I like Ryan.  The guy just looks, sounds and acts like a DI coach should.  He is at the 2nd best DI School for regional recruiting and has shown that he knows how to recruit that area exceptionally well.

 

125:Tomasello-I am keeping him here for now, until I see something concrete.  Gilman just seems to have his number, but it isn't a Dake-Taylor number.  He can win, I just don't see it in St. Louis.  2nd-22.5pts

 

133:Pletcher/Rodriguez-So many true freshman possibilities.  So hard to predict.  1-2. 1pt

 

141:Hayes-He is supposed to be really good.  Still, 141 is LOADED. 2-2-1.5pts

 

149: M. Jordan-I expect him to shine up a weight.  6th -9.5pts

 

157: Ryan-Hard worker, but limited offensively.  2-2. 2.5pts

 

165:White-I just don't see him ready to go, but I picked their best option by far.  2-2. 2pts

 

174:BoJo-Although he may be more healthy and active I still see the same result.  3rd-16pts

 

184:Martin-This would be the year to redshirt, but I don't think he will.  184 is deep.  6th-13.5pts

 

197:Moore-He is solid but 1 win is his max.  1-2.  .5pts

 

285:Snyder-With Gwiz gone, it is simply a matter of how many tech falls he has going into the Finals.  1st-26.5

 

OSU-95.5pts

[MSU158 1,983]

Virginia Tech:  Surprisingly the team that created more Internet controversy than the rest combined.  The great part was they managed to finish 1 pt ahead of Iowa for the final team trophy.  Can they repeat a top 4 finish?

 

125:Dance-I expect him to be healthy and properly motivated this season.  3rd-16pts

 

133:Gustafson-I expect him to qualify this season and win a match.  1-2. 1pt

 

141:Chisko-The first of 3 great VTech freshmen.  He managed to take 6th in a deep weight.  I see him a bit lower. 8th-6pts

 

149:Mastriani-He may be their weakest link, and that is more a testament to how tough VTech is top to bottom.  2-2. 2.5pts

 

157:I honestly don't have a clue-For now 0pts

 

165:McFadden-I like this kid.  Hard nosed and doesn't tire.  Should match his 2016 performance.  6th-10pts

 

174:Epperly-I really like this kid.  I may sound like a broken record.  I see him as the guy beating Nickal.  1st-24.5pts

 

184:Zavatsky-Took his lumps in a brutal weight.  I see him on the podium this year.  7th-8pts

 

197: Haught-It thins out a bit above him.  3rd-16pts

 

285: Walz-Best after Snyder and Coon, but I think Dhesi keeps improving.  4th-14pts

 

Wow, the last team I picked and I have them at 98 along with PSU.  But, they don't really have any unknowns that could really boost their total and I don't really see much room for improvement from the proven guys.

[boconnell 1,623]

Good stuff.  A few places I differ.

 

I think PSU has plenty of room for improvement from where you picked. 141,165,184,197,285 with 12 combined points would leave the door wide open, but I think 20 is closer to the low end for those 5 weights.  I think there is no way they don't come up with an AA out of those 5 guys.  And there good guys won't fall back, so I bet they are closer to 120 than to 100.  

 

Okstate has Rogers at 165 (he was a bumped up 165 this year) and he scores double figures with the potential for more.  If Marstellar somehow beats him out, it won't be a 3 point at nationals version of Marstellar.  I also don't see Boyd doing worse next year since he wrestled the last 3 months on a huge improvement curve.  I think he is a guy the light came on for, and top 4 again is a safe bet.  I am not sure where he finishes or if beating Dean in March is even possible, but with Boyd's work ethic and motor I don't think there is any way he isn't a better wrestler this year.  And Weigel was going for a winning 3rd period TD in the round of 12 this year as a freshman who didn't win the spot until March (plus he won the Big 12s over Downey).  I don't think his ceiling is that high because he is average on his feet, but I don't think he goes backwards.  If OSU has Crutchmer and Brock healthy I think they are over 100.

Edited April 7, 2016 by boconnell

[MSU158 1,983]

boconnell,

 

I pretty much agree with your first paragraph.  I basically shared that exact same sentiment at the end of the PSU assessment and stressed it again at the end of the Iowa one when I said I am still picking PSU.  I just went solely by a weight by weight basis and, BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS,  that is where I have every guy.  I am sure one or 2 of the guys at those weight will make a statement, I just had NO IDEA which one to predict doing so.

 

I touted OkState too much last season, and it backfired.  I am taking a more conservative approach this year and maybe they won't feel the enormous pressure that my predictions inevitably apply!

[boconnell 1,623]

boconnell,

 

I pretty much agree with your first paragraph.  I basically shared that exact same sentiment at the end of the PSU assessment and stressed it again at the end of the Iowa one when I said I am still picking PSU.  I just went solely by a weight by weight basis and, BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS,  that is where I have every guy.  I am sure one or 2 of the guys at those weight will make a statement, I just had NO IDEA which one to predict doing so.

 

I touted OkState too much last season, and it backfired.  I am taking a more conservative approach this year and maybe they won't feel the enormous pressure that my predictions inevitably apply!

Why do you think I want you touting PSU more?

[steamboat_charlie 727]

Reasonable predictions all around.  

 

In general I think you're too bullish on Iowa and too bearish on Ohio State.  It's looking like a true 4 or 5 horse race next year.  Curious how Mizzou's lineup will shake out.

[LaxHawk174 40]

Reasonable predictions all around.  

 

In general I think you're too bullish on Iowa and too bearish on Ohio State.  It's looking like a true 4 or 5 horse race next year.  Curious how Mizzou's lineup will shake out.

Heres how I think Mizzou will shake out (althought I have no idea who will be in at 174 or 285)

 

125: Barlow McGhee (R12 2016)

133: Jaydin Clayton (Undefeated HS career, beat Kaid Brock when both were SRs, RS this past season)

141: Matt Manley (Ranked top 10 for most of the season, faltered due to injury at NCAAs),

149: Lavion Mayes (3rd 2016)

157: Joey Lavallee (Former R12 or R16 I believe, RS this past season)

165: Daniel Lewis (4th 2016)

174: ??

184: Willie Miklus (6th 2016)

197: J'den Cox (1st 2016)

285: ??

[WRfan1 152]

I think Okie State will gain a few more points with Rogers at 165 (4th-6th).  I never expected Boyd to improve as much as he did this year, either.  He could go anywhere from 2nd-6th.   That could be another 12-18 points for OSU.

[Hokierama 3]

Virginia Tech:  Surprisingly the team that created more Internet controversy than the rest combined.  The great part was they managed to finish 1 pt ahead of Iowa for the final team trophy.  Can they repeat a top 4 finish?

 

125:Dance-I expect him to be healthy and properly motivated this season.  3rd-16pts

 

133:Gustafson-I expect him to qualify this season and win a match.  1-2. 1pt

 

141:Chisko-The first of 3 great VTech freshmen.  He managed to take 6th in a deep weight.  I see him a bit lower. 8th-6pts

 

149:Mastriani-He may be their weakest link, and that is more a testament to how tough VTech is top to bottom.  2-2. 2.5pts

 

157:I honestly don't have a clue-For now 0pts

 

165:McFadden-I like this kid.  Hard nosed and doesn't tire.  Should match his 2016 performance.  6th-10pts

 

174:Epperly-I really like this kid.  I may sound like a broken record.  I see him as the guy beating Nickal.  1st-24.5pts

 

184:Zavatsky-Took his lumps in a brutal weight.  I see him on the podium this year.  7th-8pts

 

197: Haught-It thins out a bit above him.  3rd-16pts

 

285: Walz-Best after Snyder and Coon, but I think Dhesi keeps improving.  4th-14pts

 

Wow, the last team I picked and I have them at 98 along with PSU.  But, they don't really have any unknowns that could really boost their total and I don't really see much room for improvement from the proven guys.

 

Virginia Tech: (slight lineup tweak at 157

 

125:Dance- Top 4 Finish

 

133:Gustafson- NCAA Qualifier  (Could see True Frosh Norstrem here if he is healthy after labrum surgery)

 

141:Chisko- Top 4 Finish

 

149:Mastriani-Qualified 2 years ago and was injured this year until the very end.  NCAA Qualifier

 

157:McFadden - Top 4 Finish

 

165:Hughes - Borderline NCAA Qualifier  ***Hoping for Reenan here ..if so Top 8 Finish**

 

174:Epperly-Top 2 Finish

 

184: Zavatsky-Top 6 Finish

 

197: Haught- Top 4 Finish

 

285: Walz- Top 2 Finish

 

 

In the end, VT finishes in the Top 2 as a team with 9 qualifiers and 7 AA's

[pish6969 293]

Lol MSU. Don't fool anyone. If by your calculations you have Iowa winning than dont be a coward.

To say Iowa will score more but I'm picking PSU is a complete COPOUT!

 

You've projected Iowa to score more points. Stop covering your ass and just go with that. Your projections aren't bad but I don't understand why you feel the need to always try to have an "out".

 

As for your projections. On the surface they look ok, but in reality I feel there's a much more probability that PSU has 2 champs than Iowa. I feel between Zain, Nolf and Bo we definitely getting 2 champs.

 

My predictions.

 

1 PSU

2 Ohio state (if Snyder wrestles)

3. Okie state

4. Iowa

5. VaTech

 

See bud. I don't look for a way out. I'm picking PSU if I'm wrong I'm wrong and I own it. I don't say Ohio State will score more and then pick PSU. That's ass backwards

Edited April 8, 2016 by pish6969

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,047]

super sensitive penn state fans are real fun vacuums. 

[pish6969 293]

super sensitive penn state fans are real fun vacuums.

Not sure if you were referring to my post or not.

 

If you were, let me explain. I have NO sensitivity whatsoever. All I ask if you are going to predict something, predict it don't cover your ass.

 

If MSU has Iowa scoring the most points, then that's great PICK Iowa. They have a great team and will be right in it.

 

What he did is covering his ass. That's my only point. I'm not knocking his projections as I think they are very fair. Obviously we all have are own opinions of how things will play out but that's the fun of it. My ONLY problem with MSU post is him picking PSU when by his own numbers Iowa comes out ahead.

[pish6969 293]

I will also add. As is I think it's going to be a great year and a very tight race for the throne.

 

BUT and a very big BUT if Sanderson unleashes Hall this year at 165 it's not a close race anymore

[21guns 95]

I will also add. As is I think it's going to be a great year and a very tight race for the throne.

 

BUT and a very big BUT if Sanderson unleashes Hall this year at 165 it's not a close race anymore

 

Agreed.  It is not automatic that Hall will redshirt.  Mark is already in the Nittany Lion Family, and Cael and Cody and

the staff, will meet with Mark, and a decision will be made probably some time in December.

[MSU158 1,983]

You guys Make me laugh. If I pick against PSU, I am a troll. If I pick PSU because I expect a couple guys to outperform my predictions, I am looking for a way out. Let me be clear, PSU has too many unknowns to accurately predict their results. But, I have learned that PSU will almost assuredly have a couple young guys step up. As a result, the 98 for PSU is conservative because the point scoring is at the low end for 133, 165, 184, 197 and 285. On the flip side the numbers are at the high end for Iowa for all but Kemerer and Marinelli due to being freshman and Stoll due to injury. Shame on me.....

[pish6969 293]

You guys Make me laugh. If I pick against PSU, I am a troll. If I pick PSU because I expect a couple guys to outperform my predictions, I am looking for a way out. Let me be clear, PSU has too many unknowns to accurately predict their results. But, I have learned that PSU will almost assuredly have a couple young guys step up. As a result, the 98 for PSU is conservative because the point scoring is at the low end for 133, 165, 184, 197 and 285. On the flip side the numbers are at the high end for Iowa for all but Kemerer and Marinelli due to being freshman and Stoll due to injury. Shame on me.....

Not a hard concept. I did my tally on my own. The team that had the most points was PSU and that's why I'm picking them. If I came up another team with more points I would simply say "although I HOPE PSU wins I have Ohio State winning it"

 

Not too hard a concept

 

This isn't about you trolling, though you do that well in many instances. This isn't one of those instances. This is about you covering your ass.

 

You're an Iowa fan. We know that and there is NOTHING wrong with that. If you have them with the most points then PICK them!

[MSU158 1,983]

Pish,

 

Here is the difference, I would be happy to see Iowa win. I simply believe PSU will do so. There is too much recent data to think otherwise. I don't pick who I want to win, I pick who I think will win. I guess that comes from nearly 15 years of watching your former squad get worse and worse.....