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WillieBoy

Penn State will win it again

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I don't see anyone beating PSU. 

 

This coming year will mirror last year for the Nittany Lions. Last year the 5th place Iowa Hawkeyes had 81 pts, the 2nd place Cowboys of Oklahoma State had 97 if I recall correctly. Penn State had 123. 

 

PSU will probably see a decrease this year, but not by a whole lot. So they'll score between 105 and 115. 2nd thru 5th team scores will be much like last year. 

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Although I agree with PSU most likely winning, that logic just doesn't make sense.  That would be like saying Denver is going to still win the Super Bowl based on how they scored this past season vs. how the other playoff teams did while ignoring all the changes in personnel(for every team) going into this season.

 

PSU may have as many as 6 new starters(depending on Nevills health).  That is a 60% change from the previous season.  Also, they return 71.5 of that 123.

 

Iowa will have 4 new starters and returns 70.5.

 

tOSU may have 4(5 if Martin redshirts) new starters, and that doesn't include weight changes making for new starters at different weights.  They return 83 of the 86 points from last season.

 

OkState should have 4 new starters(2 of which wrestled part of the season but were injured).  They return 60.5 from last season.

 

The numbers above show way too much change to begin to use last season as a measuring stick for this season.

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PSU will get zero at  133, 141, 197, and 285.

Can't win situation.

Who said that?  Cortez has a very solid chance to AA, Gulibon can also AA.  197 and 285 are complete question marks due to injuries.  I would put the over/under at 12 for those weights now and depending on how healthy they look by season's end, I would probably move it up quite a bit.

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Although I agree with PSU most likely winning, that logic just doesn't make sense.  That would be like saying Denver is going to still win the Super Bowl based on how they scored this past season vs. how the other playoff teams did while ignoring all the changes in personnel(for every team) going into this season.

 

PSU may have as many as 6 new starters(depending on Nevills health).  That is a 60% change from the previous season.  Also, they return 71.5 of that 123.

 

Iowa will have 4 new starters and returns 70.5.

 

tOSU may have 4(5 if Martin redshirts) new starters, and that doesn't include weight changes making for new starters at different weights.  They return 83 of the 86 points from last season.

 

OkState should have 4 new starters(2 of which wrestled part of the season but were injured).  They return 60.5 from last season.

 

The numbers above show way too much change to begin to use last season as a measuring stick for this season.

 

 

This year could be a lot like last year in more ways than one. Happy times! Ha ha. 

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I think it's a 4 team race right now, maybe even 5 if things fall just right for VT. Last year I felt like I had a good handle on what PSU was bringing to the table and they were the clear favorite, this year there are just too many question marks. If things fall into place, they could win by more this year however if things don't, I could easily see tOSU winning or maybe Iowa or OSU. Personally if not PSU, would love to see VT win.

 

8 weight classes with questions right now:

 

125: Suriano (New Starter, True Freshman)

133: Cortez (New Starter)

141: Gulibon (Troubles adjusting to new weight last year)

165: Joseph (New Starter; RS Freshman)

174: Rasheed (New Weight Class; Hall still RS)

184: Nickal (New Weight Class)

197: ????

285: Nevills (Coming off major injury)  

Edited by Flying-Tiger

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I think it's a 4 team race right now, maybe even 5 if things fall just right for VT. Last year I felt like I had a good handle on what PSU was bringing to the table and they were the clear favorite, this year there are just too many question marks. If things fall into place, they could win by more this year however if things don't, I could easily see tOSU winning or maybe Iowa or OSU. Personally if not PSU, would love to see VT win.

 

8 weight classes with questions right now:

 

125: Suriano (New Starter, True Freshman)

133: Cortez (New Starter)

141: Gulibon (Troubles adjusting to new weight last year)

165: Joseph (New Starter; RS Freshman)

174: Rasheed (New Weight Class; Hall still RS)

184: Nickal (New Weight Class)

197: ????

285: Nevills (Coming off major injury)  

 

 

Don't worry, F-T. All those guys are studs. It is all gonna work out just fine. 

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Not really worried, just not seeing enough proven point scorers to declare them the favorite in July. I am looking forward to seeing how things play out because there is a lot of potential in that lineup. Should be a fun year. 

 

 

 

They probably have 70 from Zain, Nolf and Nickal. The other 7 guys will get them the remainder of what they need. It will be fun. 

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Unless your team wins going away and returns everyone, then your team will have question marks every year.

 

Penn State had question marks last year too, which were written about constantly by those who predicted other schools to win it. This time last year it was:

 

125 - Mega can't beat NaTo, is probably 3rd or 4th best in the weight class

133 - First year starting at 133 for Jordan. He's really a 125

141 - Jimmy is really a 133

149 - Zain is really a 141, let's see how he does at 149

157 - Nolf is a first year starter, no telling how he will really do

165 - Who is this guy anyway?

174 - Nickal is like Nolf, a first year starter. Who knows how he'll really do?

184 - Cutch is small for an 84. 

197 - McIntosh is a stud.

Hwt - the third first year starter, and he is probably out for the year anyway. 

 

Now, you figure there are three guys in there you can absolutely count on in Mega, Zain and Morgan McIntosh. That sounds a lot like this year. So there will always be questions, but Penn State is better at answering those questions than anyone else. 

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The difference this year, in my opinion,is tOSU, Iowa and OkState come in with much more comparable pre-season situations than last season.  OkState was the only one that I think came into last season with as much or even more possibilities but lost Crutchmer and Brock to injury and Klimara laid an egg(I take all the blame for this and have sent him and his family several gift baskets with no response :) ).

 

So, like I said before, Sanderson and PSU's recent history is why many expect this team to pull ahead even though the Top 4 look very even going into the season.  Looking at that, I think this year's COTY should absolutely go to the one who wins the NCAA Championship.  Development is always the most strongly critiqued part of coaching and that almost definitely will be what separates the winner this season!

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The difference this year, in my opinion,is tOSU, Iowa and OkState come in with much more comparable pre-season situations than last season.  OkState was the only one that I think came into last season with as much or even more possibilities but lost Crutchmer and Brock to injury and Klimara laid an egg(I take all the blame for this and have sent him and his family several gift baskets with no response :) ).

 

So, like I said before, Sanderson and PSU's recent history is why many expect this team to pull ahead even though the Top 4 look very even going into the season.  Looking at that, I think this year's COTY should absolutely go to the one who wins the NCAA Championship.  Development is always the most strongly critiqued part of coaching and that almost definitely will be what separates the winner this season!

 

 

i don 't buy this at all, MSU.  Last year Iowa and Ohio State came into the year with just as much firepower as Ok State.

 

Iowa had Gilman, Clark and Sorenson who all had finalist potential. Potential that was realized. They had Burak, a reliably top 5 guy at his weight. Meyer was a preseason #2 or 3 at his weight. Brooks was a very solid AA candidate. 

 

Ohio State had NaTo, BoJo, and Snyder once he chose to wrestle. They had Micah who at the time was as highly regarded as Nolf or Nickal. Kenny Courts was back. They pulled MyMar's shirt and he won a Nc. 

 

The single one constant in all of this is that Penn State wrestlers over perform when it matters most, typically by out bonus pointing everyone. 

 

Iowa, Ok State and Ohio State will all have firepower this year too, but Penn State's guys as a group will probably outscore them,. More guys will come thru, and more guys will score a lot of bonus points and that will be the difference. 

 

Zain, Nolf, and Bo Nickal - that is 70 points right there. 

 

Suriano, Cortez, Gulibon, Joseph, whoever is at 174 if Nickal moves up, Cassar at 197 and Nick Nevills all have top 5 potential. Will all of them make top 5? Of course not. Things always go awry somewhere in the line up. But on balance more of them will pan out than their rivals at these other schools. 

 

Let's say two guys get hurt or seriously under perform. What does your average 5th place guy score? 8 to 10 ;pts. At worst PSU scores another 40 points from the remainder of the line up. That gets them to 110 pts. 

 

With four or five teams aside from PSU having so much ability, the remaining points up for grabs get diluted, thus making it hard for any one school to match that 110 pt. total. the only way it happens is if some school way, way over performs accross their whole line up. My bet is that won't happen. 

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I see on this thread that a lot of people are talking about Bo N being @ 184 this year.  Has that been confirmed by the PSU staff or is it just fan speculation?

Nothing from the staff (at least not that I have seen). Bo supposedly told kids at a camp last week that he's moving up.

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Tbar,

 

Having a discussion with you is a literal impossibility.  

 

  1. 1.)Going into the season(key word "into") tOSU was not expecting to have Martin or Snyder wrestle.  BoJo was moving up to 174.  Logan Stieber was gone and H. Stieber was a question mark. M. Jordan was a question mark at 141.  So they had Tomasello, a never AA'd DiJulius, 141-165 injured or 100% unproven, BoJo, Courts, Martin up 2 weights and Tavanello.  No way in HELL that matches up with PSU.  No way NO how.
  2. Iowa returned Gilman(who matched up with Mega), Clark(matched up with McIntosh), Sorenson( matched up with Retherford) and Burak matched up with Gulibon.  After that they fell way behind PSU with141, 157 and 165 looking like DNQ's or 0-2s.  Stoll was in no way expected to look as good as he did before injury.  Meyer was graded almost solely off his last second pin of Brunson and Brooks ended inconsistent in a brutally deep weight class.  They simply didn't look nearly as powerful as PSU, which even had many Iowa faithful SCREAMING to redshirt Burak because they didn't have the horsepower to match up with PSU.

Everything else you said was bringing an argument into a conversation I wasn't having.  I was only talking about going into the season last year and going into it this year, while giving PSU and Sanderson credit for developing his team by season's end.

 

 I am sorry if having the cake and eating a piece isn't enough for you.  If you want the whole cake from start to finish feel free!

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Unless your team wins going away and returns everyone, then your team will have question marks every year.

 

Penn State had question marks last year too, which were written about constantly by those who predicted other schools to win it. This time last year it was:....................................

 

That sounds a lot like this year. So there will always be questions, but Penn State is better at answering those questions than anyone else. 

 

 

The difference this year, in my opinion,is tOSU, Iowa and OkState come in with much more comparable pre-season situations than last season.  OkState was the only one that I think came into last season with as much or even more possibilities but lost Crutchmer and Brock to injury and Klimara laid an egg(I take all the blame for this and have sent him and his family several gift baskets with no response :) ).

 

So, like I said before, Sanderson and PSU's recent history is why many expect this team to pull ahead even though the Top 4 look very even going into the season.  Looking at that, I think this year's COTY should absolutely go to the one who wins the NCAA Championship.  Development is always the most strongly critiqued part of coaching and that almost definitely will be what separates the winner this season!

 

 

i don 't buy this at all, MSU.  Last year Iowa and Ohio State came into the year with just as much firepower as Ok State.

 

Iowa had Gilman, Clark and Sorenson who all had finalist potential. Potential that was realized. They had Burak, a reliably top 5 guy at his weight. Meyer was a preseason #2 or 3 at his weight. Brooks was a very solid AA candidate. 

 

Ohio State had NaTo, BoJo, and Snyder once he chose to wrestle. They had Micah who at the time was as highly regarded as Nolf or Nickal. Kenny Courts was back. They pulled MyMar's shirt and he won a Nc. 

 

The single one constant in all of this is that Penn State wrestlers over perform when it matters most, typically by out bonus pointing everyone. 

 

Iowa, Ok State and Ohio State will all have firepower this year too, but Penn State's guys as a group will probably outscore them,. More guys will come thru, and more guys will score a lot of bonus points and that will be the difference.  

 

Tbar,

 

Having a discussion with you is a literal impossibility.  

 

  1. 1.)Going into the season(key word "into") tOSU was not expecting to have Martin or Snyder wrestle.  BoJo was moving up to 174.  Logan Stieber was gone and H. Stieber was a question mark. M. Jordan was a question mark at 141.  So they had Tomasello, a never AA'd DiJulius, 141-165 injured or 100% unproven, BoJo, Courts, Martin up 2 weights and Tavanello.  No way in HELL that matches up with PSU.  No way NO how.
  2. Iowa returned Gilman(who matched up with Mega), Clark(matched up with McIntosh), Sorenson( matched up with Retherford) and Burak matched up with Gulibon.  After that they fell way behind PSU with141, 157 and 165 looking like DNQ's or 0-2s.  Stoll was in no way expected to look as good as he did before injury.  Meyer was graded almost solely off his last second pin of Brunson and Brooks ended inconsistent in a brutally deep weight class.  They simply didn't look nearly as powerful as PSU, which even had many Iowa faithful SCREAMING to redshirt Burak because they didn't have the horsepower to match up with PSU.

Everything else you said was bringing an argument into a conversation I wasn't having.  I was only talking about going into the season last year and going into it this year, while giving PSU and Sanderson credit for developing his team by season's end.

 

 I am sorry if having the cake and eating a piece isn't enough for you.  If you want the whole cake from start to finish feel free!

 

 

Just think if Iowa did redshirt Burak.  Having Burak at 197 would make it hard not to push Iowa into a clear favorite.  Instead 197 is a complete question mark.

 

 

 

I mention question marks and you go to fire power. i talk fire power and you bring up question marks. all the while the convo must fit into your nice neat box or else there is a huge issue. Lol. Too funny.

 

Also, since when were Snyder and Myles Martin not possibilities last year. That is what you are suggesting here. Tom Ryan proved you wrong. They were always possibilities last year, to use YOUR word, including coming into the year, and that hand got played. Don't let that fact get in your way, though. 

 

Why would i imagine Burak having been redshirted last year. That would be pointless unless your goal is to question Tom Brands coaching decisions. . 

Edited by TBar1977

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Huh?  You filled the page with quotes and made absolutely no cogent point in your response.  

 

It must be nice to be an extreme fan of a program on an incredible run.  You can be so happy you no longer have to make any sense and can contradict yourself at will.

 

GO P S U!!!!!!

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Huh?  You filled the page with quotes and made absolutely no cogent point in your response.  

 

It must be nice to be an extreme fan of a program on an incredible run.  You can be so happy you no longer have to make any sense and can contradict yourself at will.

 

GO P S U!!!!!!

 

 

 

Well what sense are you making???

 

The only point i have made, and I did make it despite your protestations, is that, on balance, Penn State performs better when it matters and that this trend will carry the day again. All imo, of course. 

 

4 or 5 other schools have great wrestlers too. No one has ever denied that fact. It is just that when it matters most, Penn State comes thru it the best.

 

If my observations like this make me a superfan in your mind, then no biggie. These observations have been continually accurate as well. BTW, I won't insult you back. No need to.

 

I wish I had a few dozen smiley faces to add in here, though. Have a good one, MSU!!

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Where did I insult you?  Saying you make no sense isn't an insult, it is a statement.  You said you disagreed with my point and yet said nothing accurate or relevant to my point.  All I did was compare what we KNEW going into last season vs. this one. That is what predictions "going into the season" are based on.  You don't predict best case scenarios, you predict based on the facts at hand at THAT TIME.

 

I never contradicted or even mentioned PSU not overperforming or peaking at NCAA's.  In fact, I agreed with that by saying that is the EXACT reason many(including myself) are again calling them the favorites even though "going into this season" at least 3 teams look to be as strong on paper.

 

I honestly think you are so used to looking for some negative PSU slant that you are arguing against something that simply isn't there.......

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Just think if Iowa did redshirt Burak. Having Burak at 197 would make it hard not to push Iowa into a clear favorite. Instead 197 is a complete question mark.

Yep. I trashed them all year for not redshirting Burak. Brands is as short-sighted as he is short-fingered. So happy he and the fans believed in Grothus enough to push for a title. Idiots.

Edited by LemonPie

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