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maligned

Weight class rankings by nation's performance: 57kg

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The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a common algorithm used as a starting point for determining point spreads.  It has a high level of predictive performance across many sports platforms, as it isolates "true ability" as it pertains to results within the context of schedule.  It is most predictive when it considers point differentials of game/match results.  Alternatively, it maintains strong predictive ability while also maintaining more "reward" or ranking intuitiveness when a standard point differential result is assigned to all matches.  

 

Below, I have used the SRS algorithm with a standard assigned 100-point result differential per match to slot the top 57kg wrestling nations using the 204 world championship, Olympic qualifying, and Olympic tournament matches that have been wrestled since 2014.  I have weighted 2014 world championship matches X 1, 2015 worlds and the six Olympic qualifying events X 2, and the 2016 Olympic tournament matches X 3.

 

Here are the results (100 is an average SRS grade here):

 

1. Georgia 233

2. Iran 213

3. Japan 204

4. Russia 190

5. Cuba 177

6. North Korea 170

7. Mongolia 163

8. India 147

9. Azerbaijan 144

10. Senegal 135

...

18. United States 100

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I don't think weighting 2015 double and 2016 triple 2014 makes any sense. Was winning 2015 worlds harder than winning 2014 worlds?

Usually the level of competition for the World Championships that are prior to the Olympics is much higher. This is the very first Olympic qualifier and usually in the first one or two WCs after the Olympics you will see some of the medalists take a break. Not sure if that was maligned's rational for weighting higher, but I have no beef with it.

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I don't think weighting 2015 double and 2016 triple 2014 makes any sense. Was winning 2015 worlds harder than winning 2014 worlds?

I am more trying to give an accurate reflection of the quality of each nation at the weight as we stand today--not 2 years ago.  Using a "moving window" approach and weighing more recent events more heavily than events further in the past always yield better predictive ratings in long-term ratings of this type.

Edited by maligned

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