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maligned

Weight class rankings by nation's performance: 74kg

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The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a common algorithm used as a starting point for determining point spreads.  It has a high level of predictive performance across many sports platforms, as it isolates "true ability" as it pertains to results within the context of schedule.  It is most predictive when it considers point differentials of game/match results.  Alternatively, it maintains strong predictive ability while also maintaining more "reward" or ranking intuitiveness when a standard point differential result is assigned to all matches.  

 

Below, I have used the SRS algorithm with a standard assigned 100-point result differential per match to slot the top 74kg wrestling nations using the 214 world championship, Olympic qualifying, and Olympic tournament matches that have been wrestled since 2014.  I have weighted 2014 world championship matches X 1, 2015 worlds and the six Olympic qualifying events X 2, and the 2016 Olympic tournament matches X 3.

 

Here are the results (100 is an average SRS grade here):

 

1. Russia 235

2. Iran 212

3. Azerbaijan 205

4. United States 193

5. Kazakhstan 169

6. Cuba 167

7. Turkey 166

8. India 166

9. Japan 159

10. Georgia 157

Edited by maligned

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The Olympic loss to #12 Uzbekistan hurts the US/Burroughs rating here.  If we weight all matches equally across the 3 seasons, he slides into #2, very slightly ahead of the Azerbaijan and Iran multiple-athlete performances of the same period (201, 200, 197).  

 

Also, interestingly, the silver medal performance by Onorbat of Mongolia last year that seemed to ring a bit hollow based on the draw is only good enough to put them at #14.  He goes one and done in 2014 and at the Olympics.

Edited by maligned

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