Oklahoma State should be Favorite for NCAAs

[lu1979 338]

It is hard for me to see how Oklahoma State should not be considered the favorite right now to win NCAAs in March. I know it's along way off still but OSU is just so loaded top to bottom.  OSU has 7 guys (Brock, Heil, Collica, Smith, Crutchmer, Boyd, & Weigal) who if they made the finals at their weight it wouldn't be a huge surprise.   I know that it is unlikely that they all will go that high but all 7 look like good bets to AA.  Beyond them Piccinni, Rodgers, & Schaffer all look pretty good and could AA with a good tournament. I'd be surprised to see any of those 3 make it into the top 4 of their weights. 

 

PSU has two superstars who if the don't win it all will shock everyone. Beyond that they have two other guys that I can see making the finals (Bo & Suriano).  I don't see their odds of making the finals or top 4 being much better than the 7 OSU wrestlers I cited above.  After that PSU has Joseph, McCutcheon (who is vastly underrated by many on this board) &  Nevilles who all look like good bets to AA.   I can't see Joseph or Cutch beating the top 4 guys at 165/197 but expect they will AA.  The same can be said of Nevilles with the top 3 guys at heavyweight. The remaining three weights 133, 141, & 174 don't look to good right now for PSU. 

 

Ohio State is in a similar position as PSU with great top level strength (Snyder, BoJo, NaTo, & MyMar), two good bets to AA (MiJo & Moore) but four weights that are questionable for points @ nationals.

 

A lot can and will happen from here to March but at this point I think OSU is the front runner.

Edited December 6, 2016 by lu1979

[TBar1977 3,839]

OSU is at their absolute peak right now rankings wise and prestige wise because they have wrestled so few ranked, let alone top ranked, wrestlers so far. intermat has them 30 points ahead of penn state in the tournament rankings right now. But, but, but, their schedule kicks in hard from here on out and they will absolutely start taking losses now. 

 

Cornell will win at 184 and would have probably won at 157 imo had Palacio been wrestling.

 

Iowa will beat them at 125, 133 if Clark is healthy, 184 would be a toss up, and Hwt Iowa wins. Iowa could win 157 as well.

 

They have Missouri, I think. They will take losses there. 

 

I guarantee you they will take losses at RenoTOC if all those starters show up, let alone at The Scuffle.

 

Iowa State and Edinboro will take some weights off of them too. They are not going to win every match 39-3. 

 

Just as their 165 lost to Clark Glass, so will some of their others start taking losses and then it won't look so obvious they are going to win it. 

Edited December 6, 2016 by TBar1977

[firefighter 3]

As an Oklahoma State fan, I certainly am pulling for #35. But after watching PSU v Lehigh, I got to go with PSU barring injury. Bonus points from the PSU pinning machine could well make the difference.

[zander 13]

I can't disagree about OSU being considered the favorite right now.

 

But this topic reminded me about the 2001 NCAA Championships held in Iowa where Minnesota won the team championship with 0 finalists but they had 10 AAs.  I think Iowa was probably the favorite going into the tournament and in addition had the home-mat advantage.  Iowa had 3 finalists with 2 champions and yet were still 13 team points away from even being in a tie with Minnesota :-)

[LemonPie 1,368]

Yes.  It would be an absolute choke job if OSU were to lose in March ;)

[TBar1977 3,839]

I would take PSU in a dual right now.

 

Suriano over Picc by Dec, confidence level high

Brock over Cortez by Dec or Mjor, same confidence

Heil over Gulibon by Dec, confidence high

Zain by Major or Fall

Nolf by Major or even Fall

Cenzo over Jordan

Crutchmer over Rasheed or Morelli by Dec or Fall. Crutch is your most underappreciated guy this year, he's a stud

Nickal over Boyd, Dec or Fall

Weigel over McCutcheon by Dec, this could go the other way 

Nevills over Schafer by Dec

 

I have PSU winning 6 weights and getting more bonus

[TobusRex 1,862]

I think PSU takes it. I don't think it'll be particularly close either. PSU's hammers are bonus monsters. OSU doesn't have guys that score many bonus points. The question is: can a bunch of "middlin'" AA's (5-8th) top 3 or 4 champions who score a lot of bonus points. This question has been asked many times before, and usually the team with 4 champs will outperform a team with several low scoring AA's. Minnesota in, what was it 2000, was the flukish exception, but ALL ten of their guys AA'd. That's a far cry from 7 AA's.

 

The Retherford/Nolf/Nickal trio are going to score a ridiculous amount of points this year. Plus PSU has the most talented young guys in the country, if you believe the recruiting rankings (and I do). Those boys get better in the PSU wrestling room, and fast. PSU is what Iowa used to be. I think several of the youngsters from PSU crack through and AA, in addition to the hammers listed above. I think Joseph will AA this year. Gulibon is a Jr, but he's already an AA who nobody seems to be considering. I don't think PSU will be a team that only has 4 or 5 placers....I think they'll have more champs than any other team, and probably as many AA's as any other.

 

I'd like to see OSU (or the other OSU, or even Iowa) win it, but PSU is just too strong, too deep, too talented, and too well coached. PSU is where Iowa was in the 80's/90's.

[LemonPie 1,368]

OSU is pretty good in the bonus department, actually.

[TobusRex 1,862]

OSU is pretty good in the bonus department, actually.

Who? Not trying to argue or anything, but who did you have in mind?  OSU has some wrestlers capable of teching guys and scoring majors, but they don't have a legit "pinner" type this year, do they?

[LemonPie 1,368]

Rogers can pin, Brock can pin. Picc and Weigel can rack up turns. Everyone else is certainly capable of bonus as well.

[TBar1977 3,839]

I think OSU is capable of more bonus this year than in the past, but in Cael's 5 Championship years at PSU nobody has out bonused Penn State. And in most of those years the bonus differential has been significant. It has often been said that this difference is like having an 11th wrestler who finishes AA. 

 

Needless to say, when all is said and done I think Penn State will score more bonus than OSU. I would love to have OSU bring the full compliment of starters to RenoTOC because we could see it all play out right then and there. Even when ;PSU red shirted all those guys two years ago, they still beat Oklahoma State at The Scuffle and at NCAA's. Eventually that streak will end and the Cowboys will beat Penn State and this looks like it could be their year. We'll see. 

 

Keep in mind PSU can always pull Mark Hall's shirt. There is Cassar at 197 too. Maybe he gets healthy and is even better than McCutcheon. Loads of moving parts in that room.

[ionel 1,343]

I would take PSU in a dual right now.

 

Suriano over Picc by Dec, confidence level high

Brock over Cortez by Dec or Mjor, same confidence

Heil over Gulibon by Dec, confidence high

Zain by Major or Fall

Nolf by Major or even Fall

Cenzo over Jordan

Crutchmer over Rasheed or Morelli by Dec or Fall. Crutch is your most underappreciated guy this year, he's a stud

Nickal over Boyd, Dec or Fall

Weigel over McCutcheon by Dec, this could go the other way 

Nevills over Schafer by Dec

 

I have PSU winning 6 weights and getting more bonus

 

Think you might be going a little over board on the bonus

 

125:  toss up

133:  OSU - major

141: OSU - 

149: PSU  - (last 2 times 2-0 & 4-1 why would it be other)

157: PSU - major (no new data)

165: toss up - anything could happen with CR - not enough current yr data

174: OSU - m, or f

184: PSU - (have you seen any come close to pinning Boyd)

197: toss up - (need more current yr info)

285: toss up? (but I'd give edge to Schafer, appears to be a different animal at 285)

 

that' OSU - 3 and PSU - 3 with 4 toss ups with OSU 2 majors & PSU 1 but sure Zain could major anyone

 

I think it'd be close

[TBar1977 3,839]

Rogers is definitely a pinner. Problem is he is also a pinnee. I think Brock and Crutchmer can also pin. New rules make it easier to get bonus for guys like Picc, Heil, Collica etc. Here is the thing though, it is one thing to bonus an UR guy and another to bonus  TOP 15 guy. At NCAA PSU guys can and will get bonus pts., but not sure how many OSU can match. 

[TobusRex 1,862]

Rogers can pin, Brock can pin. Picc and Weigel can rack up turns. Everyone else is certainly capable of bonus as well.

Thanks. I forgot about Rogers. Fun guy to watch. Weigel is tough as a nickel steak, but I never thought of him as a bonus point guy. Piccininni will be a 4 time AA, I think.

 

Like I said, I'd be pleased if somebody beat PSU this year. But I think Cael's got a machine running up in Happy Valley at this point.

 

Do you think Fix will be redshirted, or wrestle next year? At what weight also? 125 is Picc, 133 Brock, 141 Heil...are they going to insert Fix in at 133 and bump up Brock and Heil?

[TBar1977 3,839]

ionel, you seriously think Shafer is beating Nick Nevills. I think you are going to be surprised, then. 

[TobusRex 1,862]

Rogers is definitely a pinner. Problem is he is also a pinnee. I think Brock and Crutchmer can also pin. New rules make it easier to get bonus for guys like Picc, Heil, Collica etc. Here is the thing though, it is one thing to bonus an UR guy and another to bonus  TOP 15 guy. At NCAA PSU guys can and will get bonus pts., but not sure how many OSU can match. 

True enough. It's one thing pinning some putz at the Oklahoma Open and quite another pinning a 27-6 "putz" at NCAAs :D

 

PSU's hammers have shown the ability to extra point at the NCAAs. That definitely counts for something. The Nolf/Nickal/Retherford trio is just straight up brutal. Reminds me of Taylor/Bruce at PSU, but with an extra badass thrown in for good measure.

[LemonPie 1,368]

Thanks. I forgot about Rogers. Fun guy to watch. Weigel is tough as a nickel steak, but I never thought of him as a bonus point guy. Piccininni will be a 4 time AA, I think.

 

Like I said, I'd be pleased if somebody beat PSU this year. But I think Cael's got a machine running up in Happy Valley at this point.

 

Do you think Fix will be redshirted, or wrestle next year? At what weight also? 125 is Picc, 133 Brock, 141 Heil...are they going to insert Fix in at 133 and bump up Brock and Heil?

I've still got high hopes for PSU.  Think they can pull something out at 174.  

 

As for OSU, they should probably just redshirt Fix.  Brock can move up the following year.  Fix isn't gonna give them enough to close the gap on tOSU and PSU for 17-18. 

Edited December 6, 2016 by LemonPie

[TobusRex 1,862]

ionel, you seriously think Shafer is beating Nick Nevills. I think you are going to be surprised, then. 

He beat two top 15 heavies last week, including Kroells. Kroells has been murdering people this year too, except for Schafer.

[LemonPie 1,368]

 Kroells has been murdering people this year too, except for Schafer.

What?

[TBar1977 3,839]

He beat two top 15 heavies last week, including Kroells. Kroells has been murdering people this year too, except for Schafer.

 

 

I'm sorry, but I don't see it. I saw his TD on Kroells and I don't think he gets that on Nevills, nor do I think he can go 7 minutes against Nick and not get taken down himself. I view him as an upset specialist, but not an AA. Nick should easily AA and maybe finish as high as 4th. 

 

EDIT   Btw, he's wrestled 5 guys this year that have zero shot at making NCAA. Rizzo is the best of those 5 guys and he got majored at Keystone by PENN and I watched that match live and he did not look like he has progressed since last year. I think he even got shut out there.

 

Shafer beat Kroells, but I doubt he could beat him again. He beat Larson but no idea how that went. At his size he will get some wear and tear as the year goes on. 

Edited December 6, 2016 by TBar1977

[wrestlingnerd 2,593]

Keep in mind PSU can always pull Mark Hall's shirt.

This is why I have everyone else going for 2nd. If either of the OSUs starts getting too close for comfort, Cael can just slide Hall into the lineup and it's pretty much over. Not sure Hall would be thrilled if that were to happen, but it's team first for Cael, as it should be.

Edited December 6, 2016 by wrestlingnerd

[ionel 1,343]

ionel, you seriously think Shafer is beating Nick Nevills. I think you are going to be surprised, then. 

 

Well I called it a toss up, but said edge to Schafer.  WS has Nevills at 32 right now, how'd he do in the tourney last year?  He got beat by Brooks Black in B10s, come on it was Brooks!   I just think he is still a bit of an untested So. and Schafer seems to be looking like a Sr. wrestler on a mission.  But it's hwt, if they don't have initials KS don't all hwt matches pretty much come down to a coin toss?

[NYWRESTLER94 221]

Well I called it a toss up, but said edge to Schafer. WS has Nevills at 32 right now, how'd he do in the tourney last year? He got beat by Brooks Black in B10s, come on it was Brooks! I just think he is still a bit of an untested So. and Schafer seems to be looking like a Sr. wrestler on a mission. But it's hwt, if they don't have initials KS don't all hwt matches pretty much come down to a coin toss?

to be fair he wasn't at all 100% last season and it's clearly showing now

[ionel 1,343]

to be fair he wasn't at all 100% last season and it's clearly showing now

 

your are talking about Schafer, correct?  I would agree, he is a monster this year! ;)

[TBar1977 3,839]

Well I called it a toss up, but said edge to Schafer.  WS has Nevills at 32 right now, how'd he do in the tourney last year?  He got beat by Brooks Black in B10s, come on it was Brooks!   I just think he is still a bit of an untested So. and Schafer seems to be looking like a Sr. wrestler on a mission.  But it's hwt, if they don't have initials KS don't all hwt matches pretty much come down to a coin toss?

 

 

1. Nevills was coming off injury and really was not in wrestling shape at all, and PSU only used him because they had no viable alternative. That and only that are how he lost to Brooks Black like he did at Big Tens.

 

2. Wrestlestat's algorithm penalizes lack of matches. That is how he is 32 at WS and something like 6th at Intermat and Flo. 

 

 

BTW, here is the Schaffer-Kroells match embedded in this video. Kroells does nothing the entire match. He should have been stall warned 5x. That won't happen when Shaffer wrestles Nevills. 

 

http://www.btn2go.com/game/oklahoma-st-at-minnesota-on-11272016

Edited December 6, 2016 by TBar1977