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4 minutes ago, The Genius said:

Knowing how close their last match was and how DT will be 33/34 in Paris, you still wouldn't give Yaz a 50%+ chance? 

 

I would not, at this point, I would give DT 45%, Yaz 35% and some unknown new guy from Russia or somewhere 20%

We can update these odds after Oslo

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12 minutes ago, irani said:

I would not, at this point, I would give DT 45%, Yaz 35% and some unknown new guy from Russia or somewhere 20%

We can update these odds after Oslo

That seems overly pessimistic to me. How many 34 year old Olympic champions do we get at those middle weights? Naifonov is only 24 and it seems unlikely that a new Russian will emerge ready to dethrone Yaz/DT by 2024

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7 minutes ago, The Genius said:

Knowing how close their last match was and how DT will be 33/34 in Paris, you still wouldn't give Yaz a 50%+ chance? 

Zare is limited I agree, but SHW is very weak without Gable and with a past it Taha. Zare is only 20 so you'd hope he has time to game plan better and add more ways to win. Iran does have a lot of strong young 125kg guys though so that's a fair point. Geno right now is probably better but can he beat a 23 yo Zare with a better game plan at the age of 30? Maybe he can but Zare definitely has a shot there, especially after how their first two matches went.  

Hard to say, Yazdani still has such difficulty scoring on him that it's hard for me to pick him anytime soon. He got 1 clean pushout in Tokyo against Taylor. His other points were a caution and 1 when Taylor went out on his knees (and you are relying on the officials to give it to you there, we saw what happened with Gholizadegan at junior worlds) and a shot clock point.  If Taylor is smart on the edge (unlike the second match in 2018 worlds) then I don't know what Yazdani is realistically going to do to him. Forget even shooting,  we saw he/the coaches didn't even have the confidence to attempt a go behind in Tokyo on Taylor after what happened in the 2018 match. But yes 3 years when you're 31 in wrestling is a long time. There's a decent chance they are both worse versions of themselves in 2024. 

I want to see how/if Taylor adjusts to Yazdani's new approach. I wonder if he expected Yazdani to wrestle more cautiously instead of how he wrestled the first 2 times.

And yeah, Zare depends. Gazeev (however you spell his name) shut him down at Alans also, the same tournament where Zare destroyed Gwizdowski the first time. Unlike Dabir who claims Zare is much better than  late 2019/2020, I don't see the big difference. To be fair Gazeev's game plan of  just defending pushouts for 5:50 seconds then shooting at the end was very risky, but it worked and he shut Zare down basically. Zare will be one of the top heavyweights for a long time to come because despite his limitations and whatever I personally think of his method of wrestling he is obviously very good at it but I assume there will always be a guy or two that can beat Zare. I'm not sure how much past it Taha is, Gable did kind of make him look silly but he beat Geno easily a few months ago at euros. I wouldn't rule him out completely but by 2024 I agree he probably won't be a factor. 

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1 hour ago, The Genius said:

As we know, no Iranian wrestler has ever won two Olympic gold medals. Who is most likely to be the first?

Just for fun, in my opinion, these guys have the best chance:

1. Hassan Yazdani (26 yo) - His biggest competitor is obviously DT (although Naifonov is only 24 and could improve). DT will be 33/34 in Paris and Yazdani will be 29, meaning time is on Yazdani's side. The gap is closing and Hassan has shown he can keep it close with a good gameplan. I think Yazdani has a good chance to be the first Iranian to win 2 Olympic gold medals in wrestling (at least 40-50% chance). 

2. Mohammad Reza Geraei (25 yo) - also 1 Gold away and can achieve this in Paris 2024 (will be 28 yo). Assuming he stays at 67kg, the field is quite weak: Stabler (3x world champ) will be retired so the main competitors will possibly be Surkov (will be 29/30 and has shown he is beatable), Borrero (will be 32 and near the end of his career), El-Sayed and Aslanyan. I don't think Geraei has lost a match since 2019 so he can beat any of those guys, although he has a lot of random losses and not many wins against the elite guys and GR is inherently less predictable, so I give Geraei a 10-20% chance.

3. Amir Zare (20 yo) - he will be 23 in Paris 2024 and 27 in LA 2028 (and 31 for 2032 Olympics). Of the non-gold-medalists Zare is the most accomplished and is in a weaker weight division and has good experience for his age. Taha will be 33 by 2024 and appears to not be the same guy any more, Gable has retired from wrestling so this potentially leaves Geno (will be 30 in Paris) as Zare's main obstacle to Olympic gold. They have had 2 close matches so far (Zare was easily beating Geno via pushouts until he unexpectedly gassed) and I think a 23 yo Zare can defeat a 30 yo Geno, I wouldn't be surprised if he beats Geno in Oslo next month. At this time, I give him 30-40% chance of Gold at Paris but 2028 is obviously too far out to predict.

4. Mohammad Hadi Saravi (22 yo) - will be 25 in Paris and 29 in LA. Aleksanyan will be 32/33 and is suffering from injuries, so I am not sure he will be at Paris. The biggest threat and clear no.1 is Musa Evloev, who will be 31 at Paris. Age is probably Saravi's best hope of dethroning Evloev, who has looked a level above everyone else since 2018. Then there are younger guys like Melia and Szoke who are good prospects. Saravi is my personal favourite GR wrestler but I will be realistic and give him a 20-30% chance of Gold at Paris. [Of course GR may not even be a part of the 2028 Olympics!]

5. After those guys it becomes far more speculative. Here you have guys like Amouzad Firouzpour and various other guys in the 17-21 age range who it's not worth speculating about yet.

There is the possibility of someone new and not yet heard of coming up. Russia is a good source for this but it could be from someplace else. Unless you have a Karelin-esque figure at a weight (they usually only go down due to aging) and Iran does not,  new people can drastically change everyones fortunes.

Predicting anything for greco at sub 80 kg weights is a crap shoot. Even if someone is theoretically good enough to win multiple golds there is so much parity, close matches, and fortune involved in that your predicting to flip heads 7 times in a row. 

Zare is interesting. The weight I'd least expect a great new Russian Federation rep is at  125 kg. Taha is oldish and getting older but he is so strange. He will not win Worlds in years but then destroy everyone at Euros every year (including the world champion).  I'm not convinced that he wouldn't have won in Tokyo if it wasn't for Gable. He has unimpressively sleepwalked through draws before destroying Geno in the finals . I don't think Taha will be a factor anymore by 24, but I could be wrong about that.

With Geno, this is his peak and its good but beatable. Zare is young enough that he can raise his level. But its on him to do do that. I was waiting for Semenov to jump levels when I saw him near Zare's age in Rio and he never did. For the rest of the world. Russia's top three right now look like middling medal contender types.  Mason and Kerk are some names. No one else sticks out to me. Its a landscape ripe for someone to take over. 

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this is TOO early to even think about 2024. Iran won 4 medals in wrestling in general in Tokyo and 3 of them didn't even exist 3 years ago. who knows if Yazdani and Taylor can even make it to the Olympics beating their domestic rivals.

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1 hour ago, wrestfan said:

this is TOO early to even think about 2024. Iran won 4 medals in wrestling in general in Tokyo and 3 of them didn't even exist 3 years ago. who knows if Yazdani and Taylor can even make it to the Olympics beating their domestic rivals.

It was only fun speculation about who could be the first double gold medalist.

Well for the 2016 Olympics most of the medalists were already in their late 20s, here the oldest medalist was actually Yazdani at 26, so more of these guys are likely to potentially compete in 2024.

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3 hours ago, wrestfan said:

this is TOO early to even think about 2024. Iran won 4 medals in wrestling in general in Tokyo and 3 of them didn't even exist 3 years ago. who knows if Yazdani and Taylor can even make it to the Olympics beating their domestic rivals.

Does David Taylor have a, "domestic rival..."

 

Edited by Mphillips

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15 hours ago, Shiraz123 said:

Hard to say, Yazdani still has such difficulty scoring on him that it's hard for me to pick him anytime soon. He got 1 clean pushout in Tokyo against Taylor. His other points were a caution and 1 when Taylor went out on his knees (and you are relying on the officials to give it to you there, we saw what happened with Gholizadegan at junior worlds) and a shot clock point.  If Taylor is smart on the edge (unlike the second match in 2018 worlds) then I don't know what Yazdani is realistically going to do to him. Forget even shooting,  we saw he/the coaches didn't even have the confidence to attempt a go behind in Tokyo on Taylor after what happened in the 2018 match. But yes 3 years when you're 31 in wrestling is a long time. There's a decent chance they are both worse versions of themselves in 2024. 

I want to see how/if Taylor adjusts to Yazdani's new approach. I wonder if he expected Yazdani to wrestle more cautiously instead of how he wrestled the first 2 times.

And yeah, Zare depends. Gazeev (however you spell his name) shut him down at Alans also, the same tournament where Zare destroyed Gwizdowski the first time. Unlike Dabir who claims Zare is much better than  late 2019/2020, I don't see the big difference. To be fair Gazeev's game plan of  just defending pushouts for 5:50 seconds then shooting at the end was very risky, but it worked and he shut Zare down basically. Zare will be one of the top heavyweights for a long time to come because despite his limitations and whatever I personally think of his method of wrestling he is obviously very good at it but I assume there will always be a guy or two that can beat Zare. I'm not sure how much past it Taha is, Gable did kind of make him look silly but he beat Geno easily a few months ago at euros. I wouldn't rule him out completely but by 2024 I agree he probably won't be a factor. 

DT had an interview and he said he expected Yazdani to wrestle more conservatively this time, and that he worked a lot on not allowing any go behinds. DT also struggled to score on this new Yazdani, so it goes both ways. 

Did you see Gazzaev? Lol he looks barely human. And that was in 2019 Zare was only 18 at the time and only lost 2-3 to a massive and much older Gazzaev, I don't think it's fair to still hold that against him. Gazzaev also won some 2021 qualification tournament in Russia too btw. There could always be a guy that beats him, sure - I hope we get to see Parris v Zare II at Oslo. 

Edited by The Genius

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Alireza Sarlak, Amir Mohammad Yazdani and Erfan Elahi made the world team after winning trials today.

Sarlak beat Gholizadegan twice 3-2 and 4-3
Yazdani beat Mahmoodjanloo twice 8-2 and 13-3
Elahi beat Maghoudi 2-1. he won the first match 6-5, lost the next match 5-3 but finished the job in the last match 8-3

so Iran FS team is now complete for the Worlds

57: Alireza Sarlak
61: Rahman Amouzad
65: Amir Mohammad Yazdani
70: Erfan Elahi
74: Younes Emami
79: Mohammad Nokhodi
86: Hassan Yazdani
92: Kamran Ghasempour
97: Mojtaba Goleij
125: Amir Hossein Zare

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1 hour ago, wrestfan said:

Alireza Sarlak, Amir Mohammad Yazdani and Erfan Elahi made the world team after winning trials today.

Sarlak beat Gholizadegan twice 3-2 and 4-3
Yazdani beat Mahmoodjanloo twice 8-2 and 13-3
Elahi beat Maghoudi 2-1. he won the first match 6-5, lost the next match 5-3 but finished the job in the last match 8-3

so Iran FS team is now complete for the Worlds

57: Alireza Sarlak
61: Rahman Amouzad
65: Amir Mohammad Yazdani
70: Erfan Elahi
74: Younes Emami
79: Mohammad Nokhodi
86: Hassan Yazdani
92: Kamran Ghasempour
97: Mojtaba Goleij
125: Amir Hossein Zare

Any thoughts on who is  the good, the bad or the ugly?

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14 minutes ago, window12 said:

Any thoughts on who is  the good, the bad or the ugly?

I know Goleij is the ugly one (even though he has a good chance to medal)

no chance for Sarlak and A. Yazdani. and very slim chance for Elahi, Emami and Nokhodi (unless they receive a good draw) you can consider all of them as "bad"

and the rest are good !

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6 hours ago, wrestfan said:

Alireza Sarlak, Amir Mohammad Yazdani and Erfan Elahi made the world team after winning trials today.

Sarlak beat Gholizadegan twice 3-2 and 4-3
Yazdani beat Mahmoodjanloo twice 8-2 and 13-3
Elahi beat Maghoudi 2-1. he won the first match 6-5, lost the next match 5-3 but finished the job in the last match 8-3

so Iran FS team is now complete for the Worlds

57: Alireza Sarlak
61: Rahman Amouzad
65: Amir Mohammad Yazdani
70: Erfan Elahi
74: Younes Emami
79: Mohammad Nokhodi
86: Hassan Yazdani
92: Kamran Ghasempour
97: Mojtaba Goleij
125: Amir Hossein Zare

In general, when we are weak in a weight class, I like it when the junior wrestlers get to go.

In this case, the wrong junior (Gholizadeh) lost, and the wrong one (Elahi) won

Unless if I am miscounting, 4 out of 10 are recent Junior team representatives.  In general, a very young team

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6 minutes ago, irani said:

Unless if I am miscounting, 4 out of 10 are recent Junior team representatives.  In general, a very young team

3 juniors, Nokhodi, Elahi and Amouzad

I think Zare is still a junior too

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5 minutes ago, wrestfan said:

3 juniors, Nokhodi, Elahi and Amouzad

I think Zare is still a junior too

Is there any on the team that does not have a medal in world , or junior worlds?

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19 minutes ago, irani said:

Is there any on the team that does not have a medal in world , or junior worlds?

everybody has a world medal. Youth, Junior or U23.

A. Yazdani never made the junior team. he has a world cadet silver,
Sarlak lost when he was on the junior team but has a U23 bronze, Ghasempour is also a 2 time World U23 Champion.

everybody else has a World junior medal
 

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10 hours ago, wrestfan said:

Alireza Sarlak, Amir Mohammad Yazdani and Erfan Elahi made the world team after winning trials today.

Sarlak beat Gholizadegan twice 3-2 and 4-3
Yazdani beat Mahmoodjanloo twice 8-2 and 13-3
Elahi beat Maghoudi 2-1. he won the first match 6-5, lost the next match 5-3 but finished the job in the last match 8-3

so Iran FS team is now complete for the Worlds

57: Alireza Sarlak
61: Rahman Amouzad
65: Amir Mohammad Yazdani
70: Erfan Elahi
74: Younes Emami
79: Mohammad Nokhodi
86: Hassan Yazdani
92: Kamran Ghasempour
97: Mojtaba Goleij
125: Amir Hossein Zare

Pretty strong but very young squad. 4 medals should be the expected result, more than that would be an achievement. Something between 3 bronze and 1 gold 2 silver 1 bronze would be normal.

Most excited to see Amouzad, Elahi, Yazdani, Ghasempour and Zare. Don't really care about Goleij but he can't do worse than his last performance at worlds lol

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38 minutes ago, The Genius said:

Pretty strong but very young squad. 4 medals should be the expected result, more than that would be an achievement. Something between 3 bronze and 1 gold 2 silver 1 bronze would be normal.

Most excited to see Amouzad, Elahi, Yazdani, Ghasempour and Zare. Don't really care about Goleij but he can't do worse than his last performance at worlds lol

Hard to predict silver vs bronze when we do not know who else is attending, and how the brackets look.  Lots of times the difference between silver and bronze is which side of the bracket you are on

I would argue the following have a shot at gold:, with my prediction next to each one

  • Yazdani (Silver)
  • Zare (gold, depending on whether Geno participates and how good the American rep will be)
  • Amouzad (bronze)
  • Ghassempour (outstanding wrestler, wrestling against bigger guys.  Cox should be favored, but Cox is also very inconsistent, expect against Karimi) (Silver)

These guy should have a shot at medal

  • Goleji
  • Emami

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57 - DNP

61 - Gold

65 - DNP

70 - Bronze

74 - DNP

79 - DNP

86 - Silver

92 - Gold

97 - Silver/Bronze (He can probably beat Russia's B guy if Sadulaev doesn't go,  but Snyder is a terrible match up for him)

125 - Gold,  but I like the way Parris wrestles a lot when I saw him that time at junior worlds, i'll be rooting for him if he makes the American team lol. If Geno shows up then silver.  I assume Akgul definitely isn't going. 

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