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15 hours ago, The Genius said:

Iran isn't a strong favourite in any weight (I would say only 125kg) whereas the US is a strong favourite in multiple weights. For Iran to even compete with the US, too many things have to go Iran's way. 2021 was a fantastic tournament for Iran but that was probably the peak, and that team came third in the team title. 

In my opinion, I feel Iran has a chance to win a Medal in every Freestyle Weight. The least chance is at 74kg, but there is a chance at that one as well. Obviously no less than Silvers at 57, 86, 92, 125kg. The rest will depend on the draw. 

The Team battle will primarily be between USA - Iran. One isn’t clearly a favor over the other. They both have a 50/50 chance to win the Team Trophy. 

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6 hours ago, Seena said:

In my opinion, I feel Iran has a chance to win a Medal in every Freestyle Weight. The least chance is at 74kg, but there is a chance at that one as well. Obviously no less than Silvers at 57, 86, 92, 125kg. The rest will depend on the draw. 

The Team battle will primarily be between USA - Iran. One isn’t clearly a favor over the other. They both have a 50/50 chance to win the Team Trophy. 

The US is a clear favourite for gold in 3 weight classes (74kg, 79kg, 97kg), Iran is a clear favourite for gold in zero weight classes. The US also has much stronger medal chances at most of the lower weight classes. Iran's best weight classes are 50/50 with the US (86kg, 92kg) or underdog to the US (97kg) or 50/50 generally (125kg).

Barring a huge amount of fluke results, there's almost no way that Iran can compete for the team title. 

Americans are trying to hype up Iran's chances to compete to make their world team title seem like it's worth something in Russia's absence, don't fall for it. 

Edited by The Genius

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1 hour ago, The Genius said:

The US is a clear favourite for gold in 3 weight classes (74kg, 79kg, 97kg), Iran is a clear favourite for gold in zero weight classes. The US also has much stronger medal chances at most of the lower weight classes. Iran's best weight classes are 50/50 with the US (86kg, 92kg) or underdog to the US (97kg) or 50/50 generally (125kg).

Barring a huge amount of fluke results, there's almost no way that Iran can compete for the team title. 

Americans are trying to hype up Iran's chances to compete to make their world team title seem like it's worth something in Russia's absence, don't fall for it. 

My motivation isn’t so the US looks better. I get why Russia is banned and I agree with it,  but it does tarnish the win for whoever takes home gold. Whoever wins 97Kg  for example is pretty clearly not #1. Same with 74, 61, etc. 
 

The US is extremely unlikely to medal at 61kg and 125kg. 
 

57kg - US

61kg - Iran

65kg - Iran is far more proven

70kg - Iran is far more proven

74 - US

79 - US

86 - 50/50 - Iran has the most recent win

92 - Iran, with the US having a reasonable chance. maybe 75/25 Iran

97 - 60/40 US maybe? Iran won the last matchup dominantly 

125 - Iran

Iran is likely to place higher in 5 weights, place lower in 3 and 2 tossup weights. The US is more likely to have more golds, which is why I have the US as a slight favorite. On paper this is about as close as Russia vs US in 2017

 

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25 minutes ago, Housebuye said:

My motivation isn’t so the US looks better. I get why Russia is banned and I agree with it,  but it does tarnish the win for whoever takes home gold. Whoever wins 97Kg  for example is pretty clearly not #1. Same with 74, 61, etc. 

Iran is likely to place higher in 5 weights, place lower in 3 and 2 tossup weights. The US is more likely to have more golds, which is why I have the US as a slight favorite. On paper this is about as close as Russia vs US in 2017

I have to say I find it hilarious how for years Americans would criticise Iran for 'politicising' sports by boycotting the apartheid regime, and now boycotting Russia in sports is considered the most normal and just thing in the world. 

Your summary by weight class is pretty fair, but I wouldn't say Amouzad at 65kg is "far more proven" he's like 19 years old lol. The issue is that even in the weight classes where you think Iran will likely outperform the US, Iran is not a favourite to win gold and the gap in points will be small, so that's a bit misleading. 

I think the US has a >50% chance to win 4+ gold medals whereas Iran could win 0-1 gold medals and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Iran's team is the strongest it has been for a long time, but the team title won't be close. Russia is much stronger than the US and the US is significantly stronger than Iran. 

Iran's best chances for a gold, in my opinion:

1. Zare (I can only see Geno beating him, 70% chance to win Gold and only this low because I'm concerned about his form/inactivity)

2. Ghasempour (only Cox can beat him, but Ghasempour looks like he's a bit bigger this time, 55% chance to win Gold)

3. Yazdani (50% chance to win Gold)

4. Mohammadian (very inconsistent and very different to what he was in 2019-20, 25% chance to win Gold)

I don't give anyone else much chance. 

Edited by The Genius

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1 hour ago, Housebuye said:

My motivation isn’t so the US looks better. I get why Russia is banned and I agree with it,  but it does tarnish the win for whoever takes home gold. Whoever wins 97Kg  for example is pretty clearly not #1. Same with 74, 61, etc. 
 

The US is extremely unlikely to medal at 61kg and 125kg. 
 

57kg - US

61kg - Iran

65kg - Iran is far more proven

70kg - Iran is far more proven

74 - US

79 - US

86 - 50/50 - Iran has the most recent win

92 - Iran, with the US having a reasonable chance. maybe 75/25 Iran

97 - 60/40 US maybe? Iran won the last matchup dominantly 

125 - Iran

Iran is likely to place higher in 5 weights, place lower in 3 and 2 tossup weights. The US is more likely to have more golds, which is why I have the US as a slight favorite. On paper this is about as close as Russia vs US in 2017

 

I very highly agree with everything that you’ve mentioned about the chances at all the weights. I don’t know what “The Genius” is thinking. Assuming if Sarlak makes 57kg and Savaadkouhi 79kg. Both of them have chances vs Gilman and Burroughs. Not that the chances are high, but would say slightly less than 50%. I just wish Goleij was there at 97kg rather than Mohammadian. Despite they both had matches vs. Snyder and remembering the results. After Mohammadian beat Snyder once, he’s been inconsistent since. But Goleij has been improving and has been confident and consistent since just missing a win against Snyder in the last 4 seconds last year. Either way Iran does have a chance and we will see in September.

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5 hours ago, The Genius said:

I have to say I find it hilarious how for years Americans would criticise Iran for 'politicising' sports by boycotting the apartheid regime, and now boycotting Russia in sports is considered the most normal and just thing in the world. 

Your summary by weight class is pretty fair, but I wouldn't say Amouzad at 65kg is "far more proven" he's like 19 years old lol. The issue is that even in the weight classes where you think Iran will likely outperform the US, Iran is not a favourite to win gold and the gap in points will be small, so that's a bit misleading. 

I think the US has a >50% chance to win 4+ gold medals whereas Iran could win 0-1 gold medals and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Iran's team is the strongest it has been for a long time, but the team title won't be close. Russia is much stronger than the US and the US is significantly stronger than Iran. 

Iran's best chances for a gold, in my opinion:

1. Zare (I can only see Geno beating him, 70% chance to win Gold and only this low because I'm concerned about his form/inactivity)

2. Ghasempour (only Cox can beat him, but Ghasempour looks like he's a bit bigger this time, 55% chance to win Gold)

3. Yazdani (50% chance to win Gold)

4. Mohammadian (very inconsistent and very different to what he was in 2019-20, 25% chance to win Gold)

I don't give anyone else much chance. 

Man you are severely underrating this team. Something would have to go completely wrong for either Ghasempour or Zare to not win gold. And why does everyone keep calling 86kg a 50/50? I don't want to doubt DT but Yazdani is in his prime now while DT has only getting a year older from that dominant loss. I'm not saying Yazdani is guaranteed but don't think it's really a toss up anymore.

So if we're going by favourites, then the US is getting 4 gold and we're getting 3. That's not that big of a deficit. Plus I'm not sure why you're so focused on gold medals. You still get 15 points from bronze. I think at least 6 of our guys medal, and if we get a couple good runs from guys like Amouzad, Atri or whoever's at 79 then the team title is 100% attainable.

Edited by Amir.Sol

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36 minutes ago, Amir.Sol said:

Man you are severely underrating this team. Something would have to go completely wrong for either Ghasempour or Zare to not win gold. And why does everyone keep calling 86kg a 50/50? I don't want to doubt DT but Yazdani is in his prime now while DT has only getting a year older from that dominant loss. I'm not saying Yazdani is guaranteed but don't think it's really a toss up anymore.

So if we're going by favourites, then the US is getting 4 gold and we're getting 3. That's not that big of a deficit. Plus I'm not sure why you're so focused on gold medals. You still get 15 points from bronze. I think at least 6 of our guys medal, and if we get a couple good runs from guys like Amouzad, Atri or whoever's at 79 then the team title is 100% attainable.

Are you calling the 6-2 win a "dominant loss" for DT? If I remember correctly, DT was losing 4-2 and had a single leg but somehow slipped and lost it then in the last few seconds Yazdani got a TD to win 6-2. Very small margins and DT is still 3-1 against Yazdani overall. DT looks more motivated than ever, but I expect it will be another very similar match that will turn on small moments like their last two matches, it's a 50/50 or at best 55/45 for Yazdani due to momentum.

I can see 5-7 medals for Iran (assuming Mohammadian doesn't have a panic attack in the first round) and 6-8 for the US, but the US has more 'guaranteed' golds. Anyway, time will tell.

Edited by The Genius

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2 hours ago, The Genius said:

Are you calling the 6-2 win a "dominant loss" for DT? If I remember correctly, DT was losing 4-2 and had a single leg but somehow slipped and lost it then in the last few seconds Yazdani got a TD to win 6-2. Very small margins and DT is still 3-1 against Yazdani overall. DT looks more motivated than ever, but I expect it will be another very similar match that will turn on small moments like their last two matches, it's a 50/50 or at best 55/45 for Yazdani due to momentum.

I can see 5-7 medals for Iran (assuming Mohammadian doesn't have a panic attack in the first round) and 6-8 for the US, but the US has more 'guaranteed' golds. Anyway, time will tell.

I say USA is 99% guaranteed Gold at 74kg, and 95% at 57kg. Iran has chances to stop them for Gold at 79, 86, 92, 97kg. Not that they will, but have a chance vs. seeing a very super slim chance for 57 and 74kg. Iranians have been able to come close with JB but not to manage a win. Plus the rest of the weight classes will depend on how far the wrestlers get to determine the Team Race. It’s not only about the Gold Medals in particular. The rest of the results add up as well.

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8 hours ago, The Genius said:

I have to say I find it hilarious how for years Americans would criticise Iran for 'politicising' sports by boycotting the apartheid regime, and now boycotting Russia in sports is considered the most normal and just thing in the world. 

i think its important to recognize that what's happening is the IOC has recommended that every international governing body exclude Russia and Belarus from competition, and that the IOC is run mostly by Western European countries and administrators. that's very different than the US boycotting an event held in Russia. 

leaving aside the other implications of your statement, i don't see how "starting a war of conquest in Europe gets you kicked out of European run sporting events" is at all puzzling, controversial, or hilarious. 

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40 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

i think its important to recognize that what's happening is the IOC has recommended that every international governing body exclude Russia and Belarus from competition, and that the IOC is run mostly by Western European countries and administrators. that's very different than the US boycotting an event held in Russia. 

leaving aside the other implications of your statement, i don't see how "starting a war of conquest in Europe gets you kicked out of European run sporting events" is at all puzzling, controversial, or hilarious. 

You are effectively saying that the world championships (and apparently all other international sport competition) is "European run" and therefore political boycotts of European members are justified in ways boycotts of non-European countries are not. 

I don't think that level of stupidity and exceptionalism merits a response, to be honest. 

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5 hours ago, The Genius said:

Are you calling the 6-2 win a "dominant loss" for DT? If I remember correctly, DT was losing 4-2 and had a single leg but somehow slipped and lost it then in the last few seconds Yazdani got a TD to win 6-2. Very small margins and DT is still 3-1 against Yazdani overall. DT looks more motivated than ever, but I expect it will be another very similar match that will turn on small moments like their last two matches, it's a 50/50 or at best 55/45 for Yazdani due to momentum.

I can see 5-7 medals for Iran (assuming Mohammadian doesn't have a panic attack in the first round) and 6-8 for the US, but the US has more 'guaranteed' golds. Anyway, time will tell.

Just watched the match again and in that move your talking about, DT tried to trip Yazdani's standing leg but he gets his own leg stuck behind him and has to go down. You can say that DT slipped but Yazdani genuinely has one of the best lower body strength and flexibility I've ever seen and uses it to great effect here so that wasn't going to be an easy take down anyway. Any other wrestler and DT gets 2 points from that. Either way, Yazdani was up 4-0 with 2 minutes left so even if he was taken down there's still time to recover. Most importantly I think it was good to see he finally didn't have any stamina issues against DT.

I do agree that dominant was probably too strong of a word to use. DT was on the back foot for the majority of the match but we've seen him come back before so you're right can't really call that a dominant win.

Edited by Amir.Sol

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1 hour ago, Amir.Sol said:

Just watched the match again and in that move your talking about, DT tried to trip Yazdani's standing leg but he gets his own leg stuck behind him and has to go down. You can say that DT slipped but Yazdani genuinely has one of the best lower body strength and flexibility I've ever seen and uses it to great effect here so that wasn't going to be an easy take down anyway. 

 

When DT had the leg  Yazdani had his hand on DT head. At the moment that DT tried to trip Yazdani, Yazdani applied counter pressure to DT head and at the moment he was most unstable. So rather than Yazdani going down DT was taken down. The leg sweep by DT did not work  but the head sweep by Yazdani was what took DT down. 
 

Its not unusual to see Yazdani turn the tables when he is about to be scored on. He did it with Naifonov in the Olympic match, he did it there with DT and interestingly he did it it most recently with Karimi in the Video posted here just a few posts up. I think that’s an element of his game that is underrated compared to undertook to push out or undertook to take down but may have won him some crucial matches against DT and Naifonov.

Edited by window12
Typo

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30 minutes ago, window12 said:

When DT had the leg  Yazdani had his hand on DT head. At the moment that DT tried to trip Yazdani, Yazdani applied counter pressure to DT head and at the moment he was most unstable. So rather than Yazdani going down DT was taken down. The leg sweep by DT did not work  but the head sweep by Yazdani was what took DT down. 
 

Its not unusual to see Yazdani turn the tables when he is about to be scored on. He did it with Naifonov in the Olympic match, he did it there with DT and interestingly he did it it most recently with Karimi in the Video posted here just a few posts up. I think that’s an element of his game that is underrated compared to undertook to push out or undertook to take down but may have won him some crucial matches against DT and Naifonov.

Hmm yeah you might be right about the hand. It looked like DT was already quite unbalanced while trying to do the tripping motion and the hand behind the back was essentially the straw that broke the camel's back. And yeah Yazdani is incredibly good at getting out of disadvantageous situations. Countless times we see him on the ground on the verge of getting taken down and he keeps finding ways to escape it.

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15 hours ago, The Genius said:

You are effectively saying that the world championships (and apparently all other international sport competition) is "European run" and therefore political boycotts of European members are justified in ways boycotts of non-European countries are not. 

ad hominems aside, the IOC is clearly run by western europeans and UWW exists because it is associated with the IOC. UWW's decision to suspend Russia and Belarus' participation from World Championships is very much a result of the IOC's recommendation. other governing bodies that are associated with the IOC are doing the same. I assumed these were uncontroversial facts but perhaps not.

Presumably, sporting events run by entities that do not see a problem with what Russia is doing in Ukraine would have no qualms about inviting Russia to participate in their competitions. 

and for what its worth, I support keeping individual athletes involved in international sporting events. it is good that wrestling is individual sport and the participants do not necessarily have to be associated with country and that country's politics. for wrestling, this would require a competition that does involve UWW or national governing bodies, which is exceedingly rare, but I can imagine instances where Russian wrestlers and wrestlers from Europe or any other country in the world compete without there being a contradiction in ethical opinions. 

anyway, apologies for the digression. my main point is see no reason why holding the opinion that it is wrong for Iran's politicians to force their athletes to forfeit matches to Israeli athletes should be at odds with the opinion that it is perfectly fine for international sporting competitions, especially those run by Europeans, to decide that Russian delegations are no longer welcome. 

hopefully my comments have not dragged this thread into a protracted political debate. my intent is not to pick a fight with you or anyone else who may share differing opinions on this topic. 

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3 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

ad hominems aside, the IOC is clearly run by western europeans and UWW exists because it is associated with the IOC. UWW's decision to suspend Russia and Belarus' participation from World Championships is very much a result of the IOC's recommendation. other governing bodies that are associated with the IOC are doing the same. I assumed these were uncontroversial facts but perhaps not.

you just repeated the same nonsense double standards apologia in support of political boycotts in sport by the West but not Iran, still not worth replying to. kindly spare us your ideological drivel 

Edited by The Genius

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On 7/11/2022 at 2:07 AM, Shiraz123 said:

Masoumi at the least got rid of Mohebi forever today by becoming the clear number 2 in Iran. He should go junior worlds then u23 worlds then senior Asians. Mohebi should retire. 

it seems they wanted to send Mohebbi to the Islamic Solidarity Games. even though he lost to Masoumi and that kid is currently #2 here but the original decision was to sending him to the World Juniors.

but apparently Mohebbi got injured in that match which is serious (looks like a surgery is needed) and they have to send someone else ! with both Hashemi and Taheri being banned (not officially but still they won't be used this year because of their behavior) IWF is running out of options in this weight.

we will have trials in next few days in 4 weights, Hazratgholizadeh vs Dastan at 61, Ghiasi vs Bagheri at 65, Abouzari vs Kamrani at 70 and Bazri vs Hajiloueian at 92. (A. Firouzpour is going to World Juniors)

I believe S. Firouzpour (74), Karimi and Goleij are already selected. 57 and 79 will be decided this Sunday in Tunisia (whoever loses will go to ISG)

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10 hours ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

ad hominems aside, the IOC is clearly run by western europeans and UWW exists because it is associated with the IOC. UWW's decision to suspend Russia and Belarus' participation from World Championships is very much a result of the IOC's recommendation. other governing bodies that are associated with the IOC are doing the same. I assumed these were uncontroversial facts but perhaps not.

The Genius is spot on here, and you are living in a world of fantasy, informed by US media sources. I have two words for you: Marching Orders. I could say, as you did, that NATO is clearly run by Europeans; after all, the Secretary General is Jens Stoltenberg, a Eurpoean. However, as everyone with a clue is aware, NATO marches to the US tune. There are no REAL consultations. The US makes the rules, and the Europeans follow the orders. That's why US officials are always talking about a "rules-based international order". WTF is that, anyway? Don't we have international law underpinned by the United Nations. It's unfortunate that the US now considers international law inconvenient; they are unable to give the orders. The IOC and the UWW are run by the same US poodles as NATO. They take marching orders from their master. Don't ask me why European politicians are unable to make decisions that benefit their own people.  The price of natural gas in Germany has risen 600% since February, when the US pressured Germany to block the opening of Nord Stream 2. It's going to be a cold, expensive winter in Europe. And it's going to be a bland, boring World Championships without Russia.

You assumed that these were uncontroversial facts, and that says a lot about you. Wake up. 

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5 hours ago, wrestfan said:

but apparently Mohebbi got injured in that match which is serious (looks like a surgery is needed) and they have to send someone else ! with both Hashemi and Taheri being banned (not officially but still they won't be used this year because of their behavior) IWF is running out of options in this weight.

That's interesting, I would've thought they'd value ISG more than the U20 worlds but the fact they're immediate decision was to send Hashemi and Firouzpour to the U20s suggests otherwise. They'll probably have to resort to the same guy they just used in the Asian games at 125kg. He did win gold at least. Or maybe send Ali Akbarpour to ISG if they're so adamant on using our best talent for the U20s.

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14 hours ago, wrestfan said:

it seems they wanted to send Mohebbi to the Islamic Solidarity Games. even though he lost to Masoumi and that kid is currently #2 here but the original decision was to sending him to the World Juniors.

but apparently Mohebbi got injured in that match which is serious (looks like a surgery is needed) and they have to send someone else ! with both Hashemi and Taheri being banned (not officially but still they won't be used this year because of their behavior) IWF is running out of options in this weight.

we will have trials in next few days in 4 weights, Hazratgholizadeh vs Dastan at 61, Ghiasi vs Bagheri at 65, Abouzari vs Kamrani at 70 and Bazri vs Hajiloueian at 92. (A. Firouzpour is going to World Juniors)

I believe S. Firouzpour (74), Karimi and Goleij are already selected. 57 and 79 will be decided this Sunday in Tunisia (whoever loses will go to ISG)

He got injured when Masoumi tripped him for 4 at the end I believe. 

 

What bad behaviour did Taheri have aside from being crap? Lol. Am i forgetting something? And I believe he lives in Canada now anyway. 

 

I suppose they could send the Junior world champ from last year, Alipour or Akbarpour i'm forgetting his name.

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And this is a pretty strong junior team this year. Elahi won junior worlds last year and is now at 74. I saw some of his matches at Asian juniors last week and was impressed. Firouzpour at 92 is a likely favourite. Azarpira at 97 right there with Goleij at Takhti, won U23 worlds last year and I was very impressed with what I saw at Asian juniors. Then Masoumi at 125. 

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1 hour ago, Shiraz123 said:

What bad behaviour did Taheri have aside from being crap? Lol. Am i forgetting something? And I believe he lives in Canada now anyway. 

 

I suppose they could send the Junior world champ from last year, Alipour or Akbarpour i'm forgetting his name.

Taheri himself denied rumors about competing for Canada.

he left the competition at the nationals after losing to Hashemi and didn't wrestle for bronze. IWF said whoever did that (without a note from doctor) won't be considered for the rest of trial process this year. for the same reason Taheri wasn't allowed to wrestle in Takhti Cup (Shaabani too)

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12 hours ago, pa in taiwan said:

The Genius is spot on here, and you are living in a world of fantasy, informed by US media sources.

yeah i don't think i'm the one with the problematic sources here. maybe, but i doubt it!

the Olympics were started by european aristocrats in the late 1800s and have been run by them every since. any claims to the contrary are conspiracy theories. the IOC  has nothing to do with NATO, an organization you seem to be triggered by. and as powerful as NATO may be, they are not the ones calling the shots with regards to Russia & Belarus not being welcome at Worlds. 

and as powerful and influential as the United States is, Europeans and European organization actually do have opinions and agency of their own, and are perfectly capable of making decisions about their sporting events without being directed by the US or NATO. 

geopolitics aside, I would also like to reiterate that I am in favor of sporting events where politics do not factor in. so I SUPPORT wrestling events where Americans, Russians, Iranians, Israeli, etc athletes all compete against each other and hope to see such events in the near future!

 

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33 minutes ago, Jaroslav Hasek said:

yeah i don't think i'm the one with the problematic sources here. maybe, but i doubt it!

the Olympics were started by european aristocrats in the late 1800s and have been run by them every since. any claims to the contrary are conspiracy theories. the IOC  has nothing to do with NATO, an organization you seem to be triggered by. and as powerful as NATO may be, they are not the ones calling the shots with regards to Russia & Belarus not being welcome at Worlds. 

and as powerful and influential as the United States is, Europeans and European organization actually do have opinions and agency of their own, and are perfectly capable of making decisions about their sporting events without being directed by the US or NATO. 

geopolitics aside, I would also like to reiterate that I am in favor of sporting events where politics do not factor in. so I SUPPORT wrestling events where Americans, Russians, Iranians, Israeli, etc athletes all compete against each other and hope to see such events in the near future!

your lame and illogical apologia for western double standards on boycotts is pure idiocy and your opinions are worthless. good day

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