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TBar1977

Oklahoma State scored 198 points at Scuffle (new record)

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Questions:

 

Does the record setting performance of Oklahoma State at The Southern Scuffle alter in any way your perception of how they will do at NCAA's?

If you had them winning NCAA's, do you feel stronger in your position?

If you did not have them winning NCAA's, does this record setting performance change your mind?

Or is this a "nothing changed" event? 

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They are who we thought they were.  Top 10ish from top to bottom, just only 1 guy in the Finalist category come NCAA time.

 

If I had to predict NCAA placements based on the Scuffle performance, this is what I would prognosticate:

 

125:Nick P.-7th-R16  He showed some freshman mistakes and looked like he got outhorsed a few times.  I see R12-3pts

133:Brock-1st-5th  This young man is talented and has the offense to come back if he were to fall behind.  With Clark injured 1st is very possible.  For prediction's sake: 3rd-17pts

141:Heil-1st-3rd  Hate his style, but the guy wins and wins and wins.  1st-21  I am even giving him 1 bonus pt. win!  ;)

149:Collica-3rd-4th  I like how he is getting after it this year.  Retherford is 2 steps ahead and Sorenson 1, but Mayes is the only other guy that can touch him.  3rd-17pts

157:Smith-2nd-8th  The long layoff due to injury has definitely caused some regression.  Can he recover in time?  Not fully, IMHO.  5th-12pts

165:Rogers-4th-8th  So dangerous.  No way I thought he could beat Lewis, let alone the way he did it.  6th-11pts

174:Crutchmer-3rd-8th  Another guy that has definitely regressed a bit due to injury/layoff.  174 is thin enough(especially if Hall keeps his shirt on) 5th-10pts

184:Boyd-2nd-R12  184 is so brutal, it is super hard to predict.  However, I do think he is the right there with Dudley and Nickal for 2nd best.  3rd-16.5 pts

197:Weigel-5th-R12  He is right there with anyone not named Cox and Pfarr.  Still someone has to drop off a little.  7th-6.5 pts

285:Schafer-5th-R12  Not sure what to take from his loss to Kasper(looked like a monster).  Gonna go conservative here.  R12-2.5pts

 

Obviously I looked at this per individual, where as a team they probably won't finish as well.  Still I have them at 116.5 and think each individual outcome is reasonable to expect.

Edited by MSU158

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I still feel that is will be between PSU and OSU with tOSU a close 3rd.

 

This will depend on who shows up and who dos not, as it does every year at NCAA---also bonus points which seems to favor PSU.

 

The record points at the Scuffle just tells us that OSU has a good team that performed well, But PSU or tOSU was not at the Scuffle.

 

The RS thread has been beat to death, but I have to say if Cael pulls Hall's RS then it is PSU all the way...( I think Hall keeps RS)

 

I just do not see any other team beating all 3 of the above teams at the NCAA.

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In order for OSU to beat PSU, I feel they need to get PSU where it hurts at least once:

 

Boyd outplaces Nickal (or at a minimum, take him out of the finals)

Piccinini does the same at 125

Collica does the unthinkable (he is wrestling very well this year, though nothing like Zain)

Smith does the unthinkable (I'd say this is 2-3x less likely to happen than any other upset above)

 

I feel the same way when you compare them to tOSU.

Boyd > Martin

Brock > NaTo

Crutchmer > Bojo

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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In order for OSU to beat PSU, I feel they need to get PSU where it hurts at least once:

 

Boyd outplaces Nickal (or at a minimum, take him out of the finals)

Piccinini does the same at 125

Collica does the unthinkable (he is wrestling very well this year, though nothing like Zain)

Smith does the unthinkable (I'd say this is 2-3x less likely to happen than any other upset above)

If Hall wrestles, I absolutely agree with you.  If not, I don't think they need to do anything more than perform to expectations.  Obviously, that is easier said than done.  But, wrestle to their rankings(after Scuffle results) and the rest should take care of itself.

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Nick P.-.5

Brock-2.5

Heil-1

Collica 2.5

Smith 1

Rogers 1(obviously this is where it could easily be higher)

Crutchmer 0

Boyd 2

Weigel 0

Schafer 0

 

10.5 bonus pts total

 

 

If they get to 116.5 that means they are wrestling pretty damn well, so I actually think they could score a few more bonus than that if they are wrestling that well. 

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I agree, MSU handed out those bonus points parsimoniously.

 

Still, he's assuming every guy wrestled to current ranking. That's a tough assumption. I suppose the modest bonus allocation offsets that expectation, in part. But one of OSU's big weaknesses is that every single one of their guys, including their top dog Heil, can be upset by a handful of guys. That makes the potential volatility of their placements unusually high for such a highly ranked team. That's why I think they need to get PSU where it hurts to offset that.

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I really try to look at each individual in a vacuum without any team influence or bias when I do predictions.  Obviously, they could feed off each other if they go on a run and bonus pts may go up.  If I had to look at it from a team perspective, I would expect someone to fully falter, while another drops a few spots on the podium.  Just guessing team pts, I would say more like 103 or so.

Edited by MSU158

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I agree, MSU handed out those bonus points parsimoniously.

 

Still, he's assuming every guy wrestled to current ranking. That's a tough assumption. I suppose the modest bonus allocation offsets that expectation, in part. But one of OSU's big weaknesses is that every single one of their guys, including their top dog Heil, can be upset by a handful of guys. That makes the potential volatility of their placements unusually high for such a highly ranked team. That's why I think they need to get PSU where it hurts to offset that.

 

 

OSU broke the Scuffle scoring record while scoring fewer bonus points than some of their past teams have scored at this event. I would not have expected that result, but perhaps PSU not being in the field and Missou being the highest ranked opponent had something to do with that. 

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OSU broke the Scuffle scoring record while scoring fewer bonus points than some of their past teams have scored at this event. I would not have expected that result, but perhaps PSU not being in the field and Missou being the highest ranked opponent had something to do with that.

It had everything to do with it. John Smith and Gary Kessel would tell you the same while singing in chorus.

 

Cornell screwing the pooch with the notable exception of THE DESTROYER OF WORLDS also had a lot to do with it.

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The record they broke was set in 2012 when 4 of the top 5 teams at NCAA's were also at The Scuffle. Unless Missou, Cornell or Minnesota get to #5 then this year's Scuffle will have had only 1 of the top 5 teams. I expected the record to be broken this year. 

Edited by TBar1977

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It had everything to do with it. John Smith and Gary Kessel would tell you the same while singing in chorus.

 

Cornell screwing the pooch with the notable exception of THE DESTROYER OF WORLDS also had a lot to do with it.

If you consider not wrestling Macri, Galasso, Palacio and Realbuto as screwing the pooch, I would definitely agree with you!

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If you consider not wrestling Macri, Galasso, Palacio and Realbuto as screwing the pooch, I would definitely agree with you!

Palacio missed weight. Is there a worse way to screw the pooch? I think not, that's the ultimate, or at least a close second to getting a team point deducted on your way out of a tournament for flagrant misconduct. Not to get too graphic, but there's screwing the pooch and then there's going full-on horn dog.

 

Had Palacio been there, Smith may not have scored as much or even made the finals.

 

Noah Baughman may not be Macri, but he is a fine wrestler who pinned Piccinini, and the way the match was going before that, it's hard to call that a total fluke.

 

Grey is very hot/cold, but he was very capable of doing more.

 

Of course I'm aware a lot of their lineup didn't show for whatever reason. But even 1/2 of Cornell firing on all cylinders would've made a dent on the OSU record.

Edited by wrestlingnerd

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Don't let obvious facts get in the way of analysis.

Cornell sucks cuz' they didn't put in their full lineup.

.

I never said they sucked. I just don't think anyone other than Dean put in anywhere close to their best effort. Dean himself admitted exactly that and graciously out the blame on himself as a team leader for not getting the team in better shape.

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The record they broke was set in 2012 when 4 of the top 5 teams at NCAA's were also at The Scuffle. Unless Missou, Cornell or Minnesota get to #5 then this year's Scuffle will have had only 1 of the top 5 teams. I expected the record to be broken this year. 

 

Cowboy's are good but they suuuuure ain't no Penn State.....ain't that what you want to hear?

 

You must really be scared of OSU this year cause you sure have a hardon for anything they do, they beat who was put in front of them, nothing more they could do. Quit trying to disparage anything they do.

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They are who we thought they were.  Top 10ish from top to bottom, just only 1 guy in the Finalist category come NCAA time.

 

If I had to predict NCAA placements based on the Scuffle performance, this is what I would prognosticate:

 

125:Nick P.-7th-R16  He showed some freshman mistakes and looked like he got outhorsed a few times.  I see R12-3pts

133:Brock-1st-5th  This young man is talented and has the offense to come back if he were to fall behind.  With Clark injured 1st is very possible.  For prediction's sake: 3rd-17pts

141:Heil-1st-3rd  Hate his style, but the guy wins and wins and wins.  1st-21  I am even giving him 1 bonus pt. win!  ;)

149:Collica-3rd-4th  I like how he is getting after it this year.  Retherford is 2 steps ahead and Sorenson 1, but Mayes is the only other guy that can touch him.  3rd-17pts

157:Smith-2nd-8th  The long layoff due to injury has definitely caused some regression.  Can he recover in time?  Not fully, IMHO.  5th-12pts

165:Rogers-4th-8th  So dangerous.  No way I thought he could beat Lewis, let alone the way he did it.  6th-11pts

174:Crutchmer-3rd-8th  Another guy that has definitely regressed a bit due to injury/layoff.  174 is thin enough(especially if Hall keeps his shirt on) 5th-10pts

184:Boyd-2nd-R12  184 is so brutal, it is super hard to predict.  However, I do think he is the right there with Dudley and Nickal for 2nd best.  3rd-16.5 pts

197:Weigel-5th-R12  He is right there with anyone not named Cox and Pfarr.  Still someone has to drop off a little.  7th-6.5 pts

285:Schafer-5th-R12  Not sure what to take from his loss to Kasper(looked like a monster).  Gonna go conservative here.  R12-2.5pts

 

Obviously I looked at this per individual, where as a team they probably won't finish as well.  Still I have them at 116.5 and think each individual outcome is reasonable to expect.

 

In my picks threat, I had Piccinnini at 7th. I may need to revise that based on his performance. He may have just had a bad tournament because he was expected to be better than what we saw. He has plenty of time to redeem himself prior to NCAAs however. 

 

Brock I had placing very highly as well, but I think he may be in the 2nd tier of the top guys. I'm not sure if he can hang with Clark/Nato/Richards anymore. Yes he won the Scuffle, but he had a few very close calls. He could win the whole thing though. He is that good. He just needs to remain consistent and not have close matches with guys like McKee (who is damn good, but not a title contender)

 

Smith did not look great, but it was his first tournament, so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I had him 2nd at NCAAs and that may be a little ambitious, but him being a little out of shape for the Scuffle is OK. 

 

Rogers is a terrible style matchup for Lewis. He is a beast, but will lose to the top guys. I would love to see him against Anthony Valencia. Really like that style matchup. It is hard to predict, but I don't have him placing. 

 

Crutch is exactly as expected. Very good, but won't beat the top of the top. 

 

Boyd I thought looked great all tournament. 184 is crazy. Boyd could make the finals or not place. Need to see where Bo Nickal is too. 

 

Weigel is a bit weird to me. He seems tremendously improved but for some reason I don't see him AAing. I don't know why I am so confident in that. Maybe I'm letting his performance for most of the season last year impact me here. He looked pretty solid at the Scuffle. I do think Kollin Moore would dominate this match however. Not the best 

 

Schafer is exactly what I thought. I can't see him placing in this stacked weight. 

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Cowboy's are good but they suuuuure ain't no Penn State.....ain't that what you want to hear?

 

You must really be scared of OSU this year cause you sure have a hardon for anything they do, they beat who was put in front of them, nothing more they could do. Quit trying to disparage anything they do.

 

 

Cowboys are the consensus favorite, so on paper they should win. Everyone has them #1 for a reason. 

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Assuming Hall does not wrestle:

 

I think OSU is a favorite.  They have a much bigger band of possible performance than PSU.  PSU has more locks but less overall lineup potential.  The bottom half of OSU's lineup could put up 4-5 AAs.  The points PSU expects are not going anywhere.  If Hall doesn't wrestle it could easily come down to what happens in a super weak 197 weight class.

 

If Hall wrestles, then PSU are the prohibitive favorites.  

 

Nothing about the scuffle scoring record influences any of this.  The field seemed weak this year even apart from PSU missing.  My take aways from the scuffle for the Cowboys are these...

 

1.  Brock is their best wrestler.  He might be a PSU level bonus guy a year from now if he stays healthy.

2.  Rogers looked good even before the finals.  He won matches without big throws.  They need this Rogers to have any chance at competing.  I think tournament weigh ins make him look better than duals.

3.  Schafer is actually a top 10 guy.  

4. Piccininni is more like top 15-20.  I think he can beat some top 10 guys when the matchup is right, but there's at least 20 guys who can beat him.

Edited by boconnell

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Questions:

 

Does the record setting performance of Oklahoma State at The Southern Scuffle alter in any way your perception of how they will do at NCAA's?

If you had them winning NCAA's, do you feel stronger in your position?

If you did not have them winning NCAA's, does this record setting performance change your mind?

Or is this a "nothing changed" event?

Changed my mind slightly, but I was never really on board to begin with. The emphasis with okie st. does not seem to be on bonus points which will put them at a huge disadvantage. Pic, heil and crutch need to win the ones they are supposed to with significance.

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They are who we thought they were. Top 10ish from top to bottom, just only 1 guy in the Finalist category come NCAA time.

 

If I had to predict NCAA placements based on the Scuffle performance, this is what I would prognosticate:

 

125:Nick P.-7th-R16 He showed some freshman mistakes and looked like he got outhorsed a few times. I see R12-3pts

133:Brock-1st-5th This young man is talented and has the offense to come back if he were to fall behind. With Clark injured 1st is very possible. For prediction's sake: 3rd-17pts

141:Heil-1st-3rd Hate his style, but the guy wins and wins and wins. 1st-21 I am even giving him 1 bonus pt. win! ;)

149:Collica-3rd-4th I like how he is getting after it this year. Retherford is 2 steps ahead and Sorenson 1, but Mayes is the only other guy that can touch him. 3rd-17pts

157:Smith-2nd-8th The long layoff due to injury has definitely caused some regression. Can he recover in time? Not fully, IMHO. 5th-12pts

165:Rogers-4th-8th So dangerous. No way I thought he could beat Lewis, let alone the way he did it. 6th-11pts

174:Crutchmer-3rd-8th Another guy that has definitely regressed a bit due to injury/layoff. 174 is thin enough(especially if Hall keeps his shirt on) 5th-10pts

184:Boyd-2nd-R12 184 is so brutal, it is super hard to predict. However, I do think he is the right there with Dudley and Nickal for 2nd best. 3rd-16.5 pts

197:Weigel-5th-R12 He is right there with anyone not named Cox and Pfarr. Still someone has to drop off a little. 7th-6.5 pts

285:Schafer-5th-R12 Not sure what to take from his loss to Kasper(looked like a monster). Gonna go conservative here. R12-2.5pts

 

Obviously I looked at this per individual, where as a team they probably won't finish as well. Still I have them at 116.5 and think each individual outcome is reasonable to expect.

great analysis.

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