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TBar1977

NaTo vs. Zane Richards

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Pretty confident in Nato, but he can be taken down and Zane is a takedown machine.

 

The thing is, Nato takes down everyone he wrestles and Zane seemed to struggle against Montoya on the feet.

 

I think Nato wins 2 takedowns to 1, or 6-5.

I think NATO should be the favorite. Montoya took Zane down one time in OT. Should be a fun match. But I expect NATO to win something like 6-4/5 as well.

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As a generalization, I'm agreeing with the posts about NaTo being the favorite.  The 60-70% confidence factor seems to fit.  I see three potential outcomes that are plausible though (and yes, it's fun when we have two high level guys about to go at it, and then hypothesize like crazy):

 

Scenario 1:  NaTo completely dominates, and it's not even close.  

* Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle "lights out".  He's training with Logie-Bear, and quite frankly, is starting to look, technique-wise, like him.  All other features are that of a miniature incredible hulk.  The point is this... if the NaTo that he is capable of being truly shows up, flexes his proverbial muscles/skill set, he wrecks Richards.  NaTo's tank is still a question mark with only a few matches under his belt, but I must say, after watching the Eierman match with NaTo, it seems like NaTo is out to prove something, in a big way.  If that NaTo shows up, sorry Zane.  

 

Scenario 2:  "Normal" NaTo shows up, and squeaks out the win (6-4 / 6-5), like the above posters have thought.

*Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle to the level of his opponent, when his opponent is around his skill set level.  See Gilman, Dance, etc.  I honestly do not think it's because the opponents are actually "better" than NaTo, but rather, NaTo "shuts down" his offense.  Rewatch his matches.  His movement slows.  More methodical.  More calculated.  More cautious.  More hesitant.  In Scenario 1, he "unleashes" and just 'goes for it'.  In the likely scenario, he does enough to win, solidify his top 2 ranking, and moves on to the upcoming bouts with Montoya and Clark.

 

Scenario 3:  We realize that NaTo IS Top 4 material, just not top 1-2 at 133, and loses to Richards in a close match.

*Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to do exactly what is described in #2 above, but this time, it's just not enough.  He get's beaten by Richard's length, and NaTo's Alligator Arms can't stop the spin behind or a funky rubber knee.  

 

I give the Scenarios these probabilities:

1 - 15%

2 - 50%

3 - 35%

 

As some of you know, I'm a Buckeye Fan through and through, and would love to see NaTo execute Scenario 1 with style.  But... I'm also a realist, and he has a very real chance of losing this match.  

 

Thanks for listening. 

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As a generalization, I'm agreeing with the posts about NaTo being the favorite. The 60-70% confidence factor seems to fit. I see three potential outcomes that are plausible though (and yes, it's fun when we have two high level guys about to go at it, and then hypothesize like crazy):

 

Scenario 1: NaTo completely dominates, and it's not even close.

* Why? NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle "lights out". He's training with Logie-Bear, and quite frankly, is starting to look, technique-wise, like him. All other features are that of a miniature incredible hulk. The point is this... if the NaTo that he is capable of being truly shows up, flexes his proverbial muscles/skill set, he wrecks Richards. NaTo's tank is still a question mark with only a few matches under his belt, but I must say, after watching the Eierman match with NaTo, it seems like NaTo is out to prove something, in a big way. If that NaTo shows up, sorry Zane.

 

Scenario 2: "Normal" NaTo shows up, and squeaks out the win (6-4 / 6-5), like the above posters have thought.

*Why? NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle to the level of his opponent, when his opponent is around his skill set level. See Gilman, Dance, etc. I honestly do not think it's because the opponents are actually "better" than NaTo, but rather, NaTo "shuts down" his offense. Rewatch his matches. His movement slows. More methodical. More calculated. More cautious. More hesitant. In Scenario 1, he "unleashes" and just 'goes for it'. In the likely scenario, he does enough to win, solidify his top 2 ranking, and moves on to the upcoming bouts with Montoya and Clark.

 

Scenario 3: We realize that NaTo IS Top 4 material, just not top 1-2 at 133, and loses to Richards in a close match.

*Why? NaTo has this uncanny ability to do exactly what is described in #2 above, but this time, it's just not enough. He get's beaten by Richard's length, and NaTo's Alligator Arms can't stop the spin behind or a funky rubber knee.

 

I give the Scenarios these probabilities:

1 - 15%

2 - 50%

3 - 35%

 

As some of you know, I'm a Buckeye Fan through and through, and would love to see NaTo execute Scenario 1 with style. But... I'm also a realist, and he has a very real chance of losing this match.

 

Thanks for listening.

well said. Completely agree.

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This match will probably answer any questions as to whether or not Nate is undersized at 133.  Nate's strength is his ability to stop his opponent from scoring while finding a way to at least 1-2 TD's in a tight match.  I happen to think he was the best 125 last season but when he failed to finish his single on Gilman in regulation, he ran out of gas.  As someone who watches Nate a lot, I thought the cut he was making last season affected him slightly in terms of being able to go all out all the time. 

 

Personally, I think he's likely to win a close bout...probably scoring the only TD....but that's just conjecture.  The beauty of our sport is that the best get to compete and we get to see the result. 

 

By the way, Nate doesn't ever shut down his offense.  Better opponents are just harder to score on.  

Edited by silver-medal

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As a generalization, I'm agreeing with the posts about NaTo being the favorite.  The 60-70% confidence factor seems to fit.  I see three potential outcomes that are plausible though (and yes, it's fun when we have two high level guys about to go at it, and then hypothesize like crazy):

 

Scenario 1:  NaTo completely dominates, and it's not even close.  

* Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle "lights out".  He's training with Logie-Bear, and quite frankly, is starting to look, technique-wise, like him.  All other features are that of a miniature incredible hulk.  The point is this... if the NaTo that he is capable of being truly shows up, flexes his proverbial muscles/skill set, he wrecks Richards.  NaTo's tank is still a question mark with only a few matches under his belt, but I must say, after watching the Eierman match with NaTo, it seems like NaTo is out to prove something, in a big way.  If that NaTo shows up, sorry Zane.  

 

Scenario 2:  "Normal" NaTo shows up, and squeaks out the win (6-4 / 6-5), like the above posters have thought.

*Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to wrestle to the level of his opponent, when his opponent is around his skill set level.  See Gilman, Dance, etc.  I honestly do not think it's because the opponents are actually "better" than NaTo, but rather, NaTo "shuts down" his offense.  Rewatch his matches.  His movement slows.  More methodical.  More calculated.  More cautious.  More hesitant.  In Scenario 1, he "unleashes" and just 'goes for it'.  In the likely scenario, he does enough to win, solidify his top 2 ranking, and moves on to the upcoming bouts with Montoya and Clark.

 

Scenario 3:  We realize that NaTo IS Top 4 material, just not top 1-2 at 133, and loses to Richards in a close match.

*Why?  NaTo has this uncanny ability to do exactly what is described in #2 above, but this time, it's just not enough.  He get's beaten by Richard's length, and NaTo's Alligator Arms can't stop the spin behind or a funky rubber knee.  

 

I give the Scenarios these probabilities:

1 - 15%

2 - 50%

3 - 35%

 

As some of you know, I'm a Buckeye Fan through and through, and would love to see NaTo execute Scenario 1 with style.  But... I'm also a realist, and he has a very real chance of losing this match.  

 

Thanks for listening. 

 

 

You just used 500 words to describe human variability... 

 

How could one man have an "uncanny ability" to (1) dominate, (2) wrestle down to the level of his opponent, or (3) lock up and lose a tight one.  Aren't these mutually exclusive qualities?  That's like saying "I have an uncanny ability to make it to work on time every morning," and also "I have an uncanny ability to show up 5 hours late."  Pick one.

 

Was this satire and I'm just really slow today? Nate wins easily.

Edited by steamboat_charlie

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By the way, Nate doesn't ever shut down his offense. Better opponents are just harder to score on.

He seemed to move less against higher ranked opponents. It does appear like he shuts down his offense somewhat and scored what he needs to score to win.

 

Nothing wrong with that, but hat is how it looks.

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You just used 500 words to describe human variability... 

 

How could one man have an "uncanny ability" to (1) dominate, (2) wrestle down to the level of his opponent, or (3) lock up and lose a tight one.  Aren't these mutually exclusive qualities?  That's like saying "I have an uncanny ability to make it to work on time every morning," and also "I have an uncanny ability to show up 5 hours late."  Pick one.

 

Was this satire and I'm just really slow today? Nate wins easily.

 

 

Yes!  My subtle attempt at humor was not lost afterall!  Thank you for catching that Steamboat... :-)

 

I topped it off with "Alligator Arms", so c'mon guys... have a little fun with it... :-)

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Yes!  My subtle attempt at humor was not lost afterall!  Thank you for catching that Steamboat... :-)

 

I topped it off with "Alligator Arms", so c'mon guys... have a little fun with it... :-)

 

It was early when I read it... and I'm pretty sure I hadn't had coffee yet.  That's my excuse.  

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I think Nate is two TD's better than Richards, and that is my prediction. 5-1, 4-1, or 5-2 something like that.

I could agree 2tds better. But that could be 5-3. Escapes in college should be worth 0 points or TDs should be worth 3. Sorry to go off on a tangent. Hate that a TD only gives the offensive wrestler, in essence, one point.

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I could agree 2tds better. But that could be 5-3. Escapes in college should be worth 0 points or TDs should be worth 3. Sorry to go off on a tangent. Hate that a TD only gives the offensive wrestler, in essence, one point.

 

so true

 

get rid of riding time too

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Is it me, or is Richards a bit overhyped. Don't get me wrong, 4th place is a nice finish, but some people talk about him like he's a multiple finalist or something. Didn't he already lose this year? 

Only to montoya (who he has multiple wins over) in SV.  I think he is hyped the exact right amount.  He has all the tools to be at the top of the podium in march, but i'd rank him 3-5 right now.

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