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silver-medal

Can Oklahoma State win it?

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They have a great team with a full slot of AA contenders.  But I just don't see how they beat out PSU.  On paper, it's possible.  But PSU has so many bonus scoring machines.  And I've gotta believe Mark Hall is gonna get pulled because he's just so dmn good....and he's instantly another finals contender.  

 

Okie State has the talent but there's no AD this year to lead the way and no one in their lineup that appears to be a sure thing to win it.

 

 

 

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Oklahoma state could absolutely win it.

 

1. They have a realistic shot at 9 AA.

2. I seriously doubt that Cael is going to pull Hall's redshirt.

3. Penn State will be relying on inexperienced wrestlers to score points (Joseph, Suriano, Nevills).

 

It's neck and neck at this point in the season. I don't know how anyone could feel like either team is a lock.

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I think Okie St. has a great chance of getting 8 AA 133 141 149 157 165 174 I think have about 80% chance of AA's and 84 an 97 I'd say are over a 65 % chance but those weights are very tough and upsets are going to happen for sure. HWT and 25 are there only guys with around a 50% chance but are both more than capable with the right draw. Like his style or not Dean Heil is a winner and I believe is the guy to beat at 41, he is a Kellen Russell type of guy who everyone knows can lose but seems to pull it out, a champions champion just without the style pts.

Looking at PSU I'd say you have 2 guaranteed finalists with bonus in 49 and 57. I'm also confident in AA out of 25,84 and 74 if its that one kid (wink wink). They also have great chances at 41,65...They need 33 HWT and 97 to have crazy runs but really its razor thin and if it comes down to bonus I think we all know who wins..Definitely gonna be cant miss action and that isn't even mentioning Iowa Ohio St. FUN TIMES AWAIT IN MARCH

GO BUCKS!

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3. Penn State will be relying on inexperienced wrestlers to score points (Joseph, Suriano, Nevills).

 

It's neck and neck at this point in the season. I don't know how anyone could feel like either team is a lock.

 

LOL.  When Joseph, Suriano, and Nevills are your inexperienced guys, how could any other team stand a snowball's chance in hell of winning? 

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They would need to perform very well and have a few things go their way for it to happen. Certainly not an absurd notion but the chances aren't as high as you'd might think. They don't match up well with Penn State at all imo. They have a lot of guys in the low AA range but only one with a decent shot at winning. Can a bunch of guys scoring 10-15 points match up with Penn State when they have 2 sure bets @ 25+ with another guy not far behind in addition to Suriano, Cenzo, and Nevills who are safe bets to be 10+ (Suriano looking at the higher end of that)? I think they'll likely get more AAs than Penn State but I don't think they have the high end performers to win it. 

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The PSU bonus point line is getting a tad tiresome.  They absolutely have 2 guys that will put up bonus in at least 4 of 5 matches.  However, after that, they have ZERO proven NCAA Tournament bonus point scorers.  Suriano is a True Freshman, and altough he is looking great, is not putting up big bonus now, let alone when the best 33 guys are in a tournament.  Cortez has shown nothing to indicate he will be winning matches let alone bonusing.  Gulibon has shown us what to believe he will bonus people?  Joseph is another freshman that has a style to score points, but, again, hasn't proven himself to the point to expect bonus in the toughest tournament there is.  Morelli DOES NOT bonus.  Nickal has looked great, but he only scored 2 bonus pts last year in a weight that wasn't even remotely as deep as 184 is.  McCutcheon may AA, but I don't see him bonusing along the way.  Finally, Nevills has looked good, but he is a Heavyweight.  Bonus is hard to come by.

 

What am I missing?  Are we solely calling them some bonus pt. machine because the school itself has had a history of doing so?  They are in contention to win it because they have 3 HAMMERS with a solid supporting cast.  But, just flat out expecting big team bonus from the current lineup assumes a lot!

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No doubt they can win. If hall's redshirt is pulled which I'm going to assume it's not at this point, PSU would be a significant favorite, I personally think they're a lock with Hall at 74.  I think a huge match this weekend is Brock v Clark, if Brock beats Clark I think this really helps OSU's chances.  I've been super impressed by him and if he gets it done it shows he's a legit national champ contender.  I think everyone realizes he's an all american, but most have him slotted in the 4-6 range, if he can win it or even be a finalist those points could be huge for such a balanced team.  PSU has two champs, dominant ones in that, no way I see either of them losing.  I think OSU has 1 champ, heil, though this is far from a lock like the other two, if they get one more in the finals, brock? smith? or I think Collica has looked very tough, i think they're depth will get them a title.  If Brock beats Clark, Cael should pull Hall's shirt.  Not that I think he will. Penn state has 2 other potential finalists in Nickal and Suriano, though I think Dance v Gillman will go down on Saturday night.  Either way should be an exciting team race this year.  Not to mention if either has a hick up, Ohio State is not that far away.  They could potentially have finalists at 33,49,74, and Hwt., not to mention a returning national champ at 84(who I think has his  hands full to just all american, but I think he will finish 6-8). Hall affects the race so much as his inclusion could push Krutchmer down a spot and take a national title away from Ohio st.  The more I think about it I think Penn St. really should be pull his shirt.  He's clearly ready, he's an old freshmen, heck he probably could take an olympic shirt down the road if that's what they wanted.  Going to be a great couple of months.

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Absolutely agree about Hall.  I have been saying for some time that, if Sanderson wants to make sure he wins, Hall should be the guy at 174.  Can they still win without him? Sure.  Will they be in a dog fight with OkState, Iowa and tOSU?  Absolutely.

 

Obviously, not being an insider, I don't know what the plan has been from the beginning for Hall.  Maybe there was a plan that keeps him RS'ing no matter what.  If not, leaving him on the bench could very well cost them the Championship.

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The PSU bonus point line is getting a tad tiresome.  They absolutely have 2 guys that will put up bonus in at least 4 of 5 matches.  However, after that, they have ZERO proven NCAA Tournament bonus point scorers.  Suriano is a True Freshman, and altough he is looking great, is not putting up big bonus now, let alone when the best 33 guys are in a tournament.  Cortez has shown nothing to indicate he will be winning matches let alone bonusing.  Gulibon has shown us what to believe he will bonus people?  Joseph is another freshman that has a style to score points, but, again, hasn't proven himself to the point to expect bonus in the toughest tournament there is.  Morelli DOES NOT bonus.  Nickal has looked great, but he only scored 2 bonus pts last year in a weight that wasn't even remotely as deep as 184 is.  McCutcheon may AA, but I don't see him bonusing along the way.  Finally, Nevills has looked good, but he is a Heavyweight.  Bonus is hard to come by.

 

What am I missing?  Are we solely calling them some bonus pt. machine because the school itself has had a history of doing so?  They are in contention to win it because they have 3 HAMMERS with a solid supporting cast.  But, just flat out expecting big team bonus from the current lineup assumes a lot!

 

Not arguing any of this but early indications lead me to believe that Bo has take a decent sized jump from last year to this. He just cleanly beat the hell out of the #3 guy in the division and returning NCAA runner up. 

Edited by PSUMike

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Not arguing any of this but early indications lead me to believe that Bo has take a decent sized jump from last year to this. He just cleanly beat the hell out of the #3 guy in the division and returning NCAA runner up. 

I think that was his point.  He just crushed Dudley and wrestled fantastic and won by 5.  There will be a lot of that at 184.  

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Not arguing any of this but early indications lead me to believe that Bo has take a decent sized jump from last year to this. He just cleanly beat the hell out of the #3 guy in the division and returning NCAA runner up. 

I will agree, that after the Dudley win, he looks like the front runner to wrestle Dean in the Finals.  Still, bonus after the 1st 2 rounds will be very hard to come by at 184.  Remember, other than the one Nate Jackson blip, Nickal was throwing up big numbers last year all season and only had 2 major decision wins at NCAA's.

 

My argument isn't that PSU isn't a/the favorite.  I do think they will be hard to beat, even without Hall.  I just don't see them being the monster bonus pt. team(Retherford and Nolf not withstanding) that so many keep touting them as.

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Oh, and to answer the OP's question, Yes.  I would say that OkState is the current favorite.  Brock, Heil, Collica, Smith and Boyd all have top 4 potential.  Crutchmer looks top 6 ish.  Rogers and Weigel are firmly in the top 8.  Nick P. and Schafer should be wrestling in the blood round to make the podium.  They don't have the nearly guaranteed high end scoring from a couple of guys like PSU, but if they have a full team effort, they will be very hard to beat.

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The PSU bonus point line is getting a tad tiresome.  They absolutely have 2 guys that will put up bonus in at least 4 of 5 matches.  However, after that, they have ZERO proven NCAA Tournament bonus point scorers.  Suriano is a True Freshman, and altough he is looking great, is not putting up big bonus now, let alone when the best 33 guys are in a tournament.  Cortez has shown nothing to indicate he will be winning matches let alone bonusing.  Gulibon has shown us what to believe he will bonus people?  Joseph is another freshman that has a style to score points, but, again, hasn't proven himself to the point to expect bonus in the toughest tournament there is.  Morelli DOES NOT bonus.  Nickal has looked great, but he only scored 2 bonus pts last year in a weight that wasn't even remotely as deep as 184 is.  McCutcheon may AA, but I don't see him bonusing along the way.  Finally, Nevills has looked good, but he is a Heavyweight.  Bonus is hard to come by.

 

What am I missing?  Are we solely calling them some bonus pt. machine because the school itself has had a history of doing so?  They are in contention to win it because they have 3 HAMMERS with a solid supporting cast.  But, just flat out expecting big team bonus from the current lineup assumes a lot!

 

 

Ha ha ha ha. 

 

You may be getting tired of hearing it, MSU, but it is as real as it has ever been under Cael Sanderson. 

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Ha ha ha ha. 

 

You may be getting tired of hearing it, MSU, but it is as real as it has ever been under Cael Sanderson. 

Real and assumed are 2 very different things.  The current line up has too many starters at different weight classes to state it as fact.  As I pointed out, other than Retherford and Nolf, there are no proven bonus pt. scorers in March on the team.

 

PSU may very well win it this year.  My point was simple.  It is very presumptuous to state that PSU will win because of bonus pt history.  There are way too many new components on this squad to state that with any certainty.

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Real and assumed are 2 very different things.  The current line up has too many starters at different weight classes to state it as fact.  As I pointed out, other than Retherford and Nolf, there are no proven bonus pt. scorers in March on the team.

 

PSU may very well win it this year.  My point was simple.  It is very presumptuous to state that PSU will win because of bonus pt history.  There are way too many new components on this squad to state that with any certainty.

 

 

There are always new circumstances, but one thing has not changed since Penn State started winning NCAA Championships and that if their bonus point differential. You thought Oklahoma State was going to win this thing last year and you made similar, if not exactly the same, arguments. Penn State still won, and they still had a huge bonus point differential. 

 

Betting on PSU scoring more bonus at NCAA's has proven to be an excellent bet and I am not going against it this year. You'll see. 

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There are always new circumstances, but one thing has not changed since Penn State started winning NCAA Championships and that if their bonus point differential. You thought Oklahoma State was going to win this thing last year and you made similar, if not exactly the same, arguments. Penn State still won, and they still had a huge bonus point differential. 

 

Betting on PSU scoring more bonus at NCAA's has proven to be an excellent bet and I am not going against it this year. You'll see. 

You crack me up.  My predictions were early to mid season. By season's end I absolutely picked PSU to win.

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Dang, we are now jinxed for sure!

Hey, I picked Heil to win last year from the very beginning.  My only jinx was Klimara and I have been making amends with the Klimara family ever since.  It is funny how tough this board is.  Picking a team to win and having them take 2nd is a jinx?  If so, I would be making a ton of money on horse racing if I just picked the horse to Place every time!

Edited by MSU158

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You crack me up.  My predictions were early to mid season. By season's end I absolutely picked PSU to win.

 

 

By season's end this year you will probably be picking PSU again. The only question is whether you'll do it before or after the fact. 

Edited by TBar1977

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By season's end this year you will probably be picking PSU again. The only question is whether you'll do it before or after the fact. 

Name one instance of after the fact?  I have stood by every prediction I have made when I make my AA picks when the brackets come out.  In fact, I am willing to match my brackets against anyone each and every year for a friendly wager.  If I remember correctly, I predicted 53 out of 80 AA's.  For everyone that sits back and cherry picks, that should be easy to beat!

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