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PSU - IOWA predictions

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I'll take a swing at this

 

125 gilman by dec      3-0    iowa

133 clark by mdec      7-0    iowa

141 carton by dec     10-0    iowa

149 zr by dec            10-3    iowa

157 nolf by mdec      10-7    iowa

165 joseph by mdec 10-11  PSU  

174 meyer by dec     13-11  iowa

184 nickal by dec      13-14  PSU

197 matt m by dec    13-17  PSU

UNL nevills by dec    13-20  PSU

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25 Gilman dec. 3-0

33- Clark dec. 6-0 (unless it’s the back up. Then MD. A tech, or pin isn’t out of the question either. If it’s Carpenter, remember how his match with Montoya went)

41- Carton 9-0

49- Retherford dec. 9-3 (Sorenson’s position, familiarity, and Carver keep this to a dec.)

57- Nolf dec. 9-6 (could be a MD)

65- Joseph dec. Gunther 9-9

*74- Meyer dec. Morelli 12-9 (Rasheed dec. Meyer) (swing match)

*84- Nickal dec. Brooks 12-12 (swing match. Brooks could win this one, and I don’t see a big move from Nickal)

97 Mccutcheon dec Wilcke 15-12

*285- Nevills dec Stoll. 18-12 (swing match. I think Stoll will have a hard time pushing Nevills around, BUT physicality wins, and he might be able to wear Nevills down.)

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125:  Gilman DEC Suriano

133:  Clark MDEC Carpenter

141:  Carton DEC Gulibon

149:  Retherford MDEC Sorensen

157:  Nolf DEC Kemerer

165:  Joseph TECH St. John/Moody

174:  Morelli DEC Meyer

184:  Nickal DEC Brooks

197:  McCutcheon DEC Wilcke

HW:  Nevills DEC Stoll

 

24-10 Penn State.  Sadly.

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Gilman D Suriano

Clark MD whoever

Gulibon D Carton

Retherford D Sorensen

Kemmerer D Nolf (it was my upset of the week pick so I'm stuck with it)

Joseph tech whoever (since the Bull gets no pull)

Meyer D Morelli

Nickal D Brooks

McCutcheon D Wilcke

Neville D Stoll

 

It'll be ugly and not close. But Gilman will make a statement and not give up any offensive points. Kemerer may shock the world.

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125:  Gilman DEC Suriano
133:  Clark MDEC Carpenter
141:  Carton DEC Gulibon
149:  Retherford MDEC Sorensen
157:  Nolf DEC Kemerer
165:  Joseph TECH St. John/Moody
174:  Morelli DEC Meyer
184:  Nickal DEC Brooks
197:  McCutcheon DEC Wilcke
HW:  Nevills DEC Stoll
 
24-10 Penn State.  Sadly.

 

I like it--except I think Suriano dec Gilman---and I think the Cortez is back---Clark DEC over Cortez--- I wont touch 141--I have faith but it is fading

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Kemerer is more likely to see the lights than he is to actually beat Jason Nolf. I see Nolf getting him with the near ankle pick and far side elbow control. Ankle gets picked in, far side sent backwards and Nolf driving thru him right into a pinning combination. 

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Kemerer is more likely to see the lights than he is to actually beat Jason Nolf. I see Nolf getting him with the near ankle pick and far side elbow control. Ankle gets picked in, far side sent backwards and Nolf driving thru him right into a pinning combination.

 

Why is that more likely to happen? Does Kemmerer get pinned often?

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His chances of winning are very low in my view, and Nolf's chances of pinning anyone this year are not as low.

 

I'm not sure how this match will go. I think a Big 10 or NCAA match will be a lot more interesting. Kemmerer might have issues the first time with the blitzkrieg. If he stays focused and motivated, he should have plenty of opportunity to score points. In this match as well as in the future, unless Nolf changes his style drastically.

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I'm not sure how this match will go. I think a Big 10 or NCAA match will be a lot more interesting. Kemmerer might have issues the first time with the blitzkrieg. If he stays focused and motivated, he should have plenty of opportunity to score points. In this match as well as in the future, unless Nolf changes his style drastically.

 

 

Jason has incredible confidence in his ability and basically let's it fly at all times, which does get him taken down from time to time. But nobody has been able to with stand the all out frontal assault except I Mar. We'll see. I thought it would make for a fun prediction. 

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Sauriano by decision (since nobody else is willing to call the "upset") 3 to 0 penn state

Clark by decision regardless who he wrestles 3 to 3

Gulibon by decision, but hard to be confident in jimmy 6 to 3 penn state

Zain by decision, Sorenson will clam up and do minimal work per usual 9 to 3 penn state

Nolf by decision, I think this match will he closer than some expect. Kemmerer is a solid competitor 12 to 3 penn state

Joseph by major, or worse 16 to 3 penn state

Meyer by decision over morelli in the most uninspiring match of the meet. Would like to see Rasheed go here 16 to 6 penn state

Nickal by decision, could see some cool flurries here. 19 to 6 penn state

McCutcheon by decision, can't cout on a w for Iowa here. 22 to 6...

Nevills by decision. Stoll will likely try and shove him out of bounds and do little else. 25 to 6.

 

I highly doubt the score will be so heavily lopsided, especially at carver. I'm sure iowa will get one or two home cooking calls to win a match they probably shouldn't. Will still be the worst beating they've probably taken in a long time (or at least in the last week...)

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Nice article on Flo "Iowa's path to victory" gives a not too far fetched scenario where Iowa could win. The big key is obviously winning the matches they are supposed to win, not giving up bonus to the big 3, and getting one upset in your favor. Easier said than done, I personally wouldnt bet on it, but I dont think it would be the biggest upset in the history of the sport either.

 

Let's remember Iowa did beat Penn st in the dual in 2 of their 4 straight title seasons. Iowa beat Oklahoma St three years in a row prior to this year, including last year when OK St was 2nd at NCAA's. Consistent dual success is one thing that has set Brands apart from Zalesky (among others, hopefully the trolls dont hijack the thread with this). Brands knows how to win big duals, at home and against superior teams.

 

Really no team in the country besides Iowa has a lineup with even a remote possability of keeping the Penn St big 3 to regular decisions. Sorenson is 0-2 against Zain, lost once by regular decision so it wouldnt be totally unprecedented for him to keep it close, at home, against a familiar opponent. Kemerer is #2 in the country, so in theory he should be Nolf's closest competiton. Kemerer's scrambling ability could make it so Nolf cant finish his takedowns quickly, which could make it difficult to rack up enough to get the major, but if Nolf can get turns from top then it could be trouble, again there is familiarity there too. Nickal beat Dudley 10-5, and I view Brooks as on the same tier as Dudley since he did beat him in the Big 10 finals. Nickal just doesnt seem as thick and filled out as most 84's, so I think a strength advantage may be enough for Brooks to keep it close, not to mention the fact that he's just a damn good wrestler. Brooks tends to go upper body a lot, and Nickal may be the wrong guy to do that with, which could lead to big points for Bo or even a fall, or maybe he gets lucky like Myles Martin in the NCAA finals and pulls off a throw for big points?

 

125: Cant wait for Gilman vs Suriano! I dont see the 5th year senior at home allowing the true freshmen to come into CHA and beat him, I just dont see it.

 

133:Clark may not be fully healthy and isnt a bonus machine typically, but against a backup if he can get a tight bar or bar/half maybe he can work him over for the fall? Iowa could use the bonus there, so I expect to see him work extra hard for the fall from top.

 

141: Carton vs Gulibon, about as even as a matchup can be, Gulibon the big name recruit, Carton the came up from nowhere type. I thought Gulibon looked ok against Ashnault, he can be tough on top so if he can put a good ride on Carton or get a tilt or two he could take it, but Carton has been wrestling well and improving and looking for a signature win here.

 

165: Will Iowa even have Gunther available? If PSU gets bonus here the chance of the upset are even smaller.

 

174: Meyer the favorite but he has been struggling lately, lost a few in a row albeit against solid competiton. Iowa really needs him to get on track and in a hurry. PSU using Morelli or Rasheed? Meyer a notorious slow starter, Rasheed notorious for not finishing matches, could we see an early lead for Rasheed and another furious comeback from Meyer? Or Morelli, in which case I think we get a boring, low scoring one takedown match.

 

197: Size advantage Wilke, everything else advantage McCutcheon, not expecting upset or bonus (Flo article talks about Wilke not being bonused by two top 10 opponents)

 

285:Stoll vs Nevills is another one I'm looking forward to, both sophmores, same recruiting class, I predicted them to be 5th/6th at NCAA's, a contrast of styles with the big strong greco background bully vs the lighter quicker technician.

 

At the end of the day I pick Penn St, but I think it will be competitive in all 10 bouts and something unexpected will happen. Cant wait to watch this one, thankful for great coverage from BTN this season!

Edited by MA_Wrestler

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125 - Gilman dec Suriano 3-0 I

133 - Clark dec Cortez 6-0 I

141 - Guilibon dec Carton 6-3 P

149 - Zain mdec Sorenson 7-6 P

157 - Nolf tf Kemmerer 12-6 P

165 - Cenzo md St. John 16-6 P

174 - Meyer dec Morelli 16-9 P

184 - Nickal dec Brooks 19-9 P

197 - McCutcheon dec Wilcke 22-9 P

HWT - Nevills dec Stoll 25-9 P

 

125, 141, 174, 184, 197 are swing bouts imo. The rest, the winner is pretty easy to call but the # of points they will get is a bit tougher. Personally, I think Nolf will put a TD clinic on Kemmerer and it won't be nearly as close as some think. 

Edited by PSUMike

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125: Suriano DEC Gilman

133: Carpenter DEC Clark

141: Carton DEC Gulibon

149: Sorensen DEC Retherford

157: Kemerer DEC Nolf

165: St. John DEC Joseph

174: Morelli DEC Meyer

184: Brooks DEC Nickal

197: Wilcke DEC McCutcheon

HW: Stoll DEC Nevills

 

 

I think we can all agree that is not how it will turn out.

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Did Sam Stoll get dinged up last weekend?  If he is good to go, I think he could get the win over Nick Nevills since it'll be his first time (and a few others') wrestling at Iowa.  I know these wrestlers are used to competing in front of big crowds, but CHA is a whole other thing I think.  It's the same reason why I think Thomas Gilman will have that much more of an edge over Nick Suriano.

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