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Seeding 285

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With Kasper beating Walz today by MD, how do you curently Seed this weight ?

 

My attempt :

 

1. Snyder - Ohio St. ; 6-0

2. Medberry - Wisconsin ; 17-0

3. Nevills - Penn St. - 12-1 (lost to Medberry)

4. Kasper - Duke ; 24-1 (lost to Stone way back on Nov.18) 

​5. Walz - Virginia Tech ; 17-2 (lost to Medberry & Kasper)

6. Schafer - Oklahoma St, ; 17-1 (lost to Kasper) ; You could make a case for #5

7. Hall - Arizona St. ; 23-5 (lost to Snyder & Medberry & Walz ; split with Kroells & Butler)

8. Kroells - Minnesota ; 19-7 (lost to Medberryx3 & Nevills & Kasper & Schafer ; split with Hall ; beat Butler twice)

9. Butler - Stanford ; 18-6 (lost to Nevills & Schafer & Kroellsx2 & Goodhart ; split with Hall ; beat Johnson)

10. Johnson - UTC ; 20-5 (lost to Walz & Schafer & Butler & Heino ; Beat Miller) 

 

11-16 gets murky as everyone has multiple "bad" losses.

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Kasper may be helped by the guy he lost to not being in the bracket.  That means that nobody up for discussion has the H2H over him.  I think at this point he is #3.  He has wins over your 5,6,8.  Nevills has wins over 8 and 9.  

 

I also don't think it's a sure thing Nevills is over Schafer.  Schafer is helped by Kasper continuing to win.  He has only the loss to Kasper and has better wins than Nevills and Walz.  

 

Of course it's a near certainty that Schafer and Nevills wrestle, Kasper and Walz will match up again, Medberry and Nevills again, Hall and Butler, etc...  This weight has as many big remaining tossups as any weight in the country.  Figuring out how to rank it now is fun but won't matter in 6 weeks.

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Here are the top guys that each of the top guys have left before NCAA's

 

Snyder - Nevills, Jensen, Kroells, then Dual Series (maybe Walz), then either Medberry or Nevills at BIGS - Likely finishes with 0 losses

 

Medberry - BIGS, so assuming Nevills first, then if he wins that one he gets Snyder - likely finishes with 1 loss, but possibility of 2 losses

 

Nevills - Tough road here. Snyder, Brooks Black (who I assume he beats), then Schafer, then BIGS which is probably Medberry then, if he wins, Snyder again - likely 3 losses minimum, but good chance it is 4 losses

 

Kasper - Walz, maybe he finishes with 1 loss, 2 at most

 

Walz - He could draw Snyder, then Kasper at ACC's. Might finish with the 2 losses he has now, or maybe 3 or 4. 

 

Schafer - Looks like he might face Nevills, so maybe 1 more loss from here (I'm obviously favoring Nevills in that match)

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You would put Kasper above Nevills despite the much worse loss and the lower start (albeit, a quick climb)? If Kasper can beat Walz again at ACCs (assuming, of course, that's who makes the finals to face him) and enters NCAAs with just one loss, he will earn himself at least the 3 seed since Nevills will then have two losses and Medberry will have at least one.

 

I'd love to see Kasper in the finals. This is how unlikely powerhouses get built. Duke gets a few high-profile AAs here and there and soon enough, it'll start landing stud recruits regularly. It is an Ivy-esque school academically and obviously has an awesome sports tradition.

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Kasper may be helped by the guy he lost to not being in the bracket. That means that nobody up for discussion has the H2H over him. I think at this point he is #3. He has wins over your 5,6,8. Nevills has wins over 8 and 9.

 

I also don't think it's a sure thing Nevills is over Schafer. Schafer is helped by Kasper continuing to win. He has only the loss to Kasper and has better wins than Nevills and Walz.

 

Of course it's a near certainty that Schafer and Nevills wrestle, Kasper and Walz will match up again, Medberry and Nevills again, Hall and Butler, etc... This weight has as many big remaining tossups as any weight in the country. Figuring out how to rank it now is fun but won't matter in 6 weeks.

So Kasper losing to Medberry's backup helps him?

 

Also, does Kasper jump over the loser of the potential Medberry/Snyder Big Ten Championship match?

 

 

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I think logic says a loss to the backup is obviously worse.  Logic is obviously a part of seeding.  But it also means nobody has direct criteria over him and he isn't involved in a round robin with wins and losses between a bunch of guys.  

 

If Nevills beats Schafer and loses to Medberry, I would lean towards Snyder/Medberry/Nevills/Kasper.  But I wouldn't be shocked by Snyder/Medberry/Kasper/Nevills.  Kasper will have the better wins, the better record, and the worst loss when compared to Nevills.  Who knows which way it would go.  

 

If Schafer beats Nevills it changes everything and I'd expect that it would go Snyder/Medberry/Kasper but I wouldn't even be shocked by Kasper over Medberry.

 

If Kasper beats Walz again he's entering NCAAs with a winning streak of about 25 that includes Walz 2X, Schafer, Kroells, and Dejournette 2X.  That's the best current season group of wins for any heavy.  

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I think logic says a loss to the backup is obviously worse. Logic is obviously a part of seeding. But it also means nobody has direct criteria over him and he isn't involved in a round robin with wins and losses between a bunch of guys.

 

If Nevills beats Schafer and loses to Medberry, I would lean towards Snyder/Medberry/Nevills/Kasper. But I wouldn't be shocked by Snyder/Medberry/Kasper/Nevills. Kasper will have the better wins, the better record, and the worst loss when compared to Nevills. Who knows which way it would go.

 

If Schafer beats Nevills it changes everything and I'd expect that it would go Snyder/Medberry/Kasper but I wouldn't even be shocked by Kasper over Medberry.

 

If Kasper beats Walz again he's entering NCAAs with a winning streak of about 25 that includes Walz 2X, Schafer, Kroells, and Dejournette 2X. That's the best current season group of wins for any heavy.

Is Kasper's body of work better than Medberry's? Walz x2 (counting all star*), Kroells x3, Nevills, Hall.

 

 

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Kasper may be helped by the guy he lost to not being in the bracket.  That means that nobody up for discussion has the H2H over him.  I think at this point he is #3.  He has wins over your 5,6,8.  Nevills has wins over 8 and 9.  

 

I also don't think it's a sure thing Nevills is over Schafer.  Schafer is helped by Kasper continuing to win.  He has only the loss to Kasper and has better wins than Nevills and Walz.  

 

Of course it's a near certainty that Schafer and Nevills wrestle, Kasper and Walz will match up again, Medberry and Nevills again, Hall and Butler, etc...  This weight has as many big remaining tossups as any weight in the country.  Figuring out how to rank it now is fun but won't matter in 6 weeks.

 

 

You can't just hand wave away Kasper's loss, especially one as bad as that. No seeder or ranker is going to ignore it because the guy that beat him isn't good enough to be in the conversation. Following that logic, all losses to guys outside the top 20 should be ignored as well.  

Edited by Flying-Tiger

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No one is ignoring the loss, but he has the best wins of anyone outside the top 2 right now. A fluke roll through pin shouldn't take away from all that he has accomplished so far. If he wins out, then he should be a top 3 seed, and right now should be the #3 ranked guy in the nation. 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those big boys catch Snyder this year. I don't think any of them can outscore or technique him, obviously, but Kyle can be pinned just like any other man. Especially if he's giving up 40 or 50 pounds to a monster like Coon.

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No one is ignoring the loss, but he has the best wins of anyone outside the top 2 right now. A fluke roll through pin shouldn't take away from all that he has accomplished so far. If he wins out, then he should be a top 3 seed, and right now should be the #3 ranked guy in the nation. 

 

Medberry is #2 until proven otherwise.  I would not just cast away that lose to Stone.  He is a pretty darn good Hwt that happens to be behind the #2 guy in the nation.

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What do you guys think of OU's heavy, Larson? I think he finished R16 last year, which surprised me. He gets a lot of pins, loses quite a few as well. Think he's got a chance at AA?

He's pretty good, but also inconsistent. Solid r16 or maybe r12 guy.

 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those big boys catch Snyder this year. I don't think any of them can outscore or technique him, obviously, but Kyle can be pinned just like any other man. Especially if he's giving up 40 or 50 pounds to a monster like Coon.

Kyle Snyder will not be pinned..

 

 

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