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NJDan

# 1 seed vs. the field

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Whenever anyone asks for predictions on who will win a given weight, I always think it foolish to predict anyone other that the #1 seed. How could I presume to know better than the seeding committee. Also #1 seeds seem to win more often than not. 

 

The better question is who you would you take vs the Field. I would not take Giman or Tommasello vs the Field. I would take Snyder. 

 

Who among the #1 seeds has a better than 50% chance of winning it all?

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Ok this got me to thinking about it so here are the numbers for the last 5 years. I figured a sample of 50 was statistically large enough to prove a trend.

 

#1 seeds to win by year

2016 - 60%

2015 - 60%

2014 - 30%

2013 - 60%

2012 - 70%

 

Now if we expand that to include both #1 and #2 seeds

2016 - 80%

2015 - 70%

2014 - 70%

2013 - 100%

2012 - 90%

 

Now if we add #3 seeds this is what you get.

2016 - 90%

2015 - 80%

2014 - 90%

2013 - 100%

2012 - 90%

 

That’s right in the last 5 years only 5 wrestlers outside the top 3 seeds have won a title and here are their seeds; 4, 4, 5, 11, and 13.

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Most likely to happen, 174.

Clark at 133 is the most realistic.

 

Lizak has a very outside chance, and I do mean very outside. Everything would have to fall exactly right and Gilman would have to be very stupid in the finals. 

 

Hall would have to pull off 3 upsets in a row and quite honestly I don't see him getting past Valencia. 

Edited by Zebra

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I like Z. Valencia a lot.  He has had a great Freshman season.  However, he hasn't exactly wrestled a tough schedule.  He has beat Ramos by 1 point, twice.  He beat Realbuto and Amine by 1 as well.  His only other notable wins are 7-2 over Brunson and twice over Weatherspoon(10-2 and 5-2) and both of them have been quite inconsistent this year.

 

The only other weight where the winner is more likely to come from the field is 141(statistically) and I wouldn't bet against a proven, although hard to watch, Heil.

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If I had to pick the field over the 1 seed, here is my order from likely to least likely:

 

1.174

2.133

3.141

Huge separation after here:

 

4.125

5.197

6.149

7.184

8.285

9.165

10.157

Edited by MSU158

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I like Z. Valencia a lot.  He has had a great Freshman season.  However, he hasn't exactly wrestled a tough schedule.  He has beat Ramos by 1 point, twice.  He beat Realbuto and Amine by 1 as well.  His only other notable wins are 7-2 over Brunson and twice over Weatherspoon(10-2 and 5-2) and both of them have been quite inconsistent this year.

 

 

But he hasn't lost yet and none of the other guys in that bracket have been setting the world on fire. Lots of inconsistency at 174 except the undefeated record. 

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But he hasn't lost yet and none of the other guys in that bracket have been setting the world on fire. Lots of inconsistency at 174 except the undefeated record. 

I get ya.  I just don't see much separation between the top 10.  When he is on Meyer has proven he can beat Hall and yet lose to Brunson.  Ramos can beat or lose to anyone in the top 10.  Epperly has only lost 1x.  BoJo and Realbuto have only lost 1x.  This weight is very difficult to predict!  Hence, it being the most likely for the field to come through.

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I get ya.  I just don't see much separation between the top 10.  When he is on Meyer has proven he can beat Hall and yet lose to Brunson.  Ramos can beat or lose to anyone in the top 10.  Epperly has only lost 1x.  BoJo and Realbuto have only lost 1x.  This weight is very difficult to predict!  Hence, it being the most likely for the field to come through.

I understand the argument but still think Clark at 133 is the most likely outside the top 3 to win. 

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I like Z. Valencia a lot.  He has had a great Freshman season.  However, he hasn't exactly wrestled a tough schedule.

Zahid has wrestled Ramos twice, Realbutto, Brunson, Weatherspoon, Wanzek, Kocer, Amine and several other Big 10 opponents. Won them all regardless if a few were close.

 

He showed up and won both Las Vegas and Midlands. He had three different opportunities to wrestle Bo Jordan but BoJo was not sent out there.

 

I think many people are underestimating his chances to win it all.

Edited by Two_on_one

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I think the following number 1 seeds have a better chance than the field (in order).

1. Snyder

2. Nolf

3. Cox

4. Retherford

5. Dean

6. IMar

7. Heil

8. Gilman (I would say he's about a 50/50)

 

It seems crazy to pick 8 out of ten to win but I'm pretty confident in them.

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If Clark makes it to the semis, I'm taking him over Tomasello (if he also makes it) and in the finals to win the title at 133.

Interesting. Not a bad pick, but I disagree.

 

I'm not confident Clark makes it past Micic, but assuming he does, Clark has a fair bit working against him.

 

Nato just beat him. Granted it was extremely close.

 

Clark has the shoulder injury. Yes he managed to get through Big10s with it, but Big10s themselves likely made it worse. I have had many shoulder injuries over the yeads.

 

If Clark wins with the shoulder injury, it will be incredible.

 

Clark has a tougher road to the semis, which means more bumps and bruises. The way to beat Nato is to gas him. The tougher road for Clark works against this.

 

I cannot wait for that semi, whoever is in it. 133 is stacked all around.

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