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NJDan

# 1 seed vs. the field

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I think the following number 1 seeds have a better chance than the field (in order).

1. Snyder

2. Nolf

3. Cox

4. Retherford

5. Dean

6. IMar

7. Heil

8. Gilman (I would say he's about a 50/50)

 

It seems crazy to pick 8 out of ten to win but I'm pretty confident in them.

Fun exercise. Assign a % of confidence to each. Even at 90%, the likelihood of ALL happening drops dramatically.

 

Certainly possible though it is hard to see how they fall

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Your Vegas odds makers have the heaviest favorites as 1. Snyder 2. Nolf 3. Zain 4. I Mar in that order. 

I agree with the list Vegas put out however I would put Nolf #1 and Snyder#2. I think Medberry has an outside chance but I give the Iowa kid no chance against Nolf.

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Your Vegas odds makers have the heaviest favorites as 1. Snyder 2. Nolf 3. Zain 4. I Mar in that order. 

 

Important to note that Vegas odds are not simply made by who has the best chance, but by what lines they think they will make the most money on.

 

Makes sense that they expect a lot of plays on Snyder, as he is the most mainstream name out of all of them. It does not mean they think he is the heaviest favorite (although that could be true). 

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Interesting. Not a bad pick, but I disagree.

I'm not confident Clark makes it past Micic, but assuming he does, Clark has a fair bit working against him.

Nato just beat him. Granted it was extremely close.

Clark has the shoulder injury. Yes he managed to get through Big10s with it, but Big10s themselves likely made it worse. I have had many shoulder injuries over the yeads.

If Clark wins with the shoulder injury, it will be incredible.

Clark has a tougher road to the semis, which means more bumps and bruises. The way to beat Nato is to gas him. The tougher road for Clark works against this.

I cannot wait for that semi, whoever is in it. 133 is stacked all around.

I could see Clark losing before the semis, that's why I cast my opinion in terms of a hypothetical. Clark is healthy enough to win, and if he does, I don't believe that would make the feat much more incredible than if he won without the shoulder problem. The increase in difficulty would be negligible in my opinion.

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Ok this got me to thinking about it so here are the numbers for the last 5 years. I figured a sample of 50 was statistically large enough to prove a trend.

 

#1 seeds to win by year

2016 - 60%

2015 - 60%

2014 - 30%

2013 - 60%

2012 - 70%

 

Now if we expand that to include both #1 and #2 seeds

2016 - 80%

2015 - 70%

2014 - 70%

2013 - 100%

2012 - 90%

 

Now if we add #3 seeds this is what you get.

2016 - 90%

2015 - 80%

2014 - 90%

2013 - 100%

2012 - 90%

 

That’s right in the last 5 years only 5 wrestlers outside the top 3 seeds have won a title and here are their seeds; 4, 4, 5, 11, and 13.

 

This suggests the #1 seed is generally a good bet vs. the field. 

 

This year it might be especially true since all the #1 seeds are undefeated, which is rare.

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If you think each number one seed has a 90% chance of winning over the field ( I'm not saying yes or no just doing it for comparison sake) then the probability that all 10 number 1 seeds win, assuming each event is independent of the other which I would assume that to be the case, is only 35%.

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If you think each number one seed has a 90% chance of winning over the field ( I'm not saying yes or no just doing it for comparison sake) then the probability that all 10 number 1 seeds win, assuming each event is independent of the other which I would assume that to be the case, is only 35%.

 

Yes, predicting a clean sweep of the number one seeds is obviously much tougher than saying a particular #1 seed has a better than 50% chance of winning. The former has never happened. The latter happens most of the time.

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https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/ncaa-wrestling-betting/ncaa-wrestling.sbk

 

This is what Vegas has to say about #1 vs the field.

 

I noticed that the current Vegas odds from that link for 125 has jumped in favor of Gilman now that Suriano is out.  A few others have changed too, but it's quite a bit different from the Vegas numbers that Flo posted earlier.  What exactly does -245 and +175 mean, though?  That can't possibly be a point spread...  sorry for the stupid question.

 

 

EDIT:  never mind, I Googled around and think I get the numbers now...  so for all the weights with a negative number for the field (133/NaTo, 141/Heil, 174/Valencia) means that someone other than the #1 seed is favored to win the title?

Edited by pamela

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So nolf and Snyder 2000 to get back 2100

 

Best one is Valencia 150 to get back 250. Not bad odds for field

 

Plus Ill take 10 against nolf and snyder get 200 anything can happen injury, upset I doubt it but never know

Edited by cangemi

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I agree with the list Vegas put out however I would put Nolf #1 and Snyder#2. I think Medberry has an outside chance but I give the Iowa kid no chance against Nolf.

Iowa kid ain't even gonna get chance against Nolf. Palacio gonna knock him off.

That said....next year assuming Nolf and Kem are at same weight, Kem closes the gap big time. 

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Clark at 133 is the most realistic.

 

Lizak has a very outside chance, and I do mean very outside. Everything would have to fall exactly right and Gilman would have to be very stupid in the finals. 

 

Hall would have to pull off 3 upsets in a row and quite honestly I don't see him getting past Valencia. 

 

Yes I'm quoting myself (a first I believe) but I said Lizak had an outside chance if everything went exactly right and so far it has. I favor him in the Semi's.  

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