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emk1

Thoughts for Paris medals (best chances)?

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Always a lot of emotion and hype after the great WTT with folks thinking we will medal in all 8 weight classes.

Sorry, but that will never happen.  If the world team member who took 1st goes,  it would be great to have 5 or 6 place winners.  My question to ponder.... How much difference is there between the #1 guy and the #2  /#3 guys. 

 

My opinion is that Green and Snyder the only ones HEAD and Shoulder above the #2 #3 guys.  All the others rather close.

 

Lastly, with 10 weeks to go, injury, drug test, accidents could alter the team.

 

Good luck to the team!

 

2017 SENIOR MEN'S FREESTYLE NATIONAL TEAM

57kg

Thomas Gilman (World Team Member)

Tony Ramos

Nathan Tomasello

 

61kg

Logan Stieber (World Team Member)

Kendric Maple

Brandon Wright

 

65kg

Zain Retherford (World Team Member)

Frank Molinaro

BJ Futrell

 

70kg 

James Green (World Team Member)

Jimmy Kennedy

Jason Nolf

 

74kg

Jordan Burroughs (World Team Member)

Kyle Dake

Alex Dieringer

 

86kg

J'Den Cox (World Team Member)

David Taylor

Nick Heflin

 

97kg

Kyle Snyder (World Team Member)

Kyven Gadson

Hayden Zillmer

 

125kg

Nick Gwiazdowski (World Team Member)

Dom Bradley

Tony Nelson

 

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Always a lot of emotion and hype after the great WTT with folks thinking we will medal in all 8 weight classes.

Sorry, but that will never happen. If the world team member who took 1st goes, it would be great to have 5 or 6 place winners. My question to ponder.... How much difference is there between the #1 guy and the #2 /#3 guys.

 

My opinion is that Green and Snyder the only ones HEAD and Shoulder above the #2 #3 guys. All the others rather close.

 

Lastly, with 10 weeks to go, injury, drug test, accidents could alter the team.

 

Good luck to the team!

2017 SENIOR MEN'S FREESTYLE NATIONAL TEAM

57kg

Thomas Gilman (World Team Member)

Tony Ramos

Nathan Tomasello

 

61kg

Logan Stieber (World Team Member)

Kendric Maple

Brandon Wright

 

65kg

Zain Retherford (World Team Member)

Frank Molinaro

BJ Futrell

 

70kg

James Green (World Team Member)

Jimmy Kennedy

Jason Nolf

 

74kg

Jordan Burroughs (World Team Member)

Kyle Dake

Alex Dieringer

 

86kg

J'Den Cox (World Team Member)

David Taylor

Nick Heflin

 

97kg

Kyle Snyder (World Team Member)

Kyven Gadson

Hayden Zillmer

 

125kg

Nick Gwiazdowski (World Team Member)

Dom Bradley

Tony Nelson

 

I made a similar thread here this morning and dude makes fun that i dont have Burroughs and Cox as locks for champions based on current rankings... :) I like how you opened it referencing these people. That aside. I can realisticly see 5 medals, but 4 is a win

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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I'm not going to be surprised if our lineup in August in Paris does not align with Saturday night's 8 winners.

 

Let's see who actually gets on the plane.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited by Angry_Fish

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57 - 1%

61 - 90%

65 - 40%

70 - 60%

74 - 60%

86 - 75%

97 - 99%

HWT - 2%

 

Could see US getting 6 medals or 2. 

 

I see it a little bit differently. 

 

57 - Agree that Gilman is not at all likely to medal, but he is a complete unknown internationally, which has been an advantage for our guys in their first year making the team.  James Green never won an NCAA title either. Plus he's got that irrational confidence thing going for him. 5%.   

 

61 - I'm a huge fan of Stieber, but anything >60% is probably too high.  Logan could win it all, or flame out in the first round.  His offense and variety of attacks is as good as anyone at the weight, but his propensity for giving up early leads is always going to open the possibility of an early upset.  That said, his motor and confidence in his ability to score is a huge asset on the biggest stages.  He's got ice water in his veins.  A skeptic would point out that there's now a lot of tape out there on him, but he's not a one trick pony offensively (a la Herbert) and can score from just about anywhere, so I don't think this is quite as important.  They would also point out his loss at Pan Am's, the first period against Maple, or the fact that the field should be stronger than last year.  I'll go 70% anyway, since I'm a shameless fanboy.  

 

65 - I'm not sure what to think about Zain. He impressed me against Molinaro but obviously Oliver not being there was a huge boon. His freestyle experience is limited but he looked to have made some important adjustments since the US Open.  I wasn't particularly impressed by his BTS match... but still I think his ceiling is very high.  I'll say 20% since he's got the same unknown advantage as referenced above for Gilman. 

 

70 - I really like the way Green is wrestling at the moment.  60% seems about right.  Draw will be important.  

 

74 - I'll go 70%.  The weight isn't as strong as it was last year, and I think Burroughs makes the right adjustments.  

 

86 - 75%. If the reports are right and Cox is healthy, I'll take him over everyone but Yazdani Charati.  Obviously helps that Sadulaev is gone.  

 

97 - Snyder is amazing, and has always delivered on the biggest stage.  Sadulaev moving into the weight doesn't help his chances (assuming he's even the rep). Hard to imagine him not wrestling back for bronze if he were to go down early, but he hasn't been in that position yet.  I'd say 85%.  Nobody has a 99% chance to medal.   

 

HWT - Hard to say where Gwiazdowski's level is at the moment relative to what we saw at the World Cup.  Since then, he's separated himself from the pack somewhat, and looks like our clear #1 after 1 year of freestyle focus.  That said, there are 5 or so guys in the weight that I can't really envision him getting past.  I'll go 8%.

 

 

Overall I have 5 guys favored to medal.  My guess is we'll come home with 4.  Absolute best case scenario is probably 6 medals, with 4 of those having a realistic shot at gold.  

Edited by steamboat_charlie

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Syle is what worries me the most for Paris.  My biggest takeaway from the WTT was how handfighting was allowed to turn into outright brawling.  Don't get me wrong, our champs are great wrestlers and it was a great event.  But do you agree that there were a lot of moments at WTT that were a fraction of an inch from being a bar-fight?

 

I'm afraid our champs will be in for a rude awakening when they they start getting caution+2 for hands in the face, punching, slapping, double collar tie etc.  Watching the Russian nationals today I'm seeing refs warn off those heavy handed attacks within the first minute of the match and the wrestlers aren't trying it a lot after that.

 

I can picture several of our champs having to completely change game plan after the first period of their first match... 

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I see it a little bit differently. 

 

57 - Agree that Gilman is not at all likely to medal, but he is a complete unknown internationally, which has been an advantage for our guys in their first year making the team.  James Green never won an NCAA title either. Plus he's got that irrational confidence thing going for him. 5%.   

 

61 - I'm a huge fan of Stieber, but anything >60% is probably too high.  Logan could win it all, or flame out in the first round.  His offense and variety of attacks is as good as anyone at the weight, but his propensity for giving up early leads is always going to open the possibility of an early upset.  That said, his motor and confidence in his ability to score is a huge asset on the biggest stages.  He's got ice water in his veins.  A skeptic would point out that there's now a lot of tape out there on him, but he's not a one trick pony offensively (a la Herbert) and can score from just about anywhere, so I don't think this is quite as important.  They would also point out his loss at Pan Am's, the first period against Maple, or the fact that the field should be stronger than last year.  I'll go 70% anyway, since I'm a shameless fanboy.  

 

65 - I'm not sure what to think about Zain. He impressed me against Molinaro but obviously Oliver not being there was a huge boon. His freestyle experience is limited but he looked to have made some important adjustments since the US Open.  I wasn't particularly impressed by his BTS match... but still I think his ceiling is very high.  I'll say 20% since he's got the same unknown advantage as referenced above for Gilman. 

 

70 - I really like the way Green is wrestling at the moment.  60% seems about right.  Draw will be important.  

 

74 - I'll go 70%.  The weight isn't as strong as it was last year, and I think Burroughs makes the right adjustments.  

 

86 - 75%. If the reports are right and Cox is healthy, I'll take him over everyone but Yazdani Charati.  Obviously helps that Sadulaev is gone.  

 

97 - Snyder is amazing, and has always delivered on the biggest stage.  Sadulaev moving into the weight doesn't help his chances (assuming he's even the rep). Hard to imagine him not wrestling back for bronze if he were to go down early, but he hasn't been in that position yet.  I'd say 85%.  Nobody has a 99% chance to medal.   

 

HWT - Hard to say where Gwiazdowski's level is at the moment relative to what we saw at the World Cup.  Since then, he's separated himself from the pack somewhat, and looks like our clear #1 after 1 year of freestyle focus.  That said, there are 5 or so guys in the weight that I can't really envision him getting past.  I'll go 8%.

 

 

Overall I have 5 guys favored to medal.  My guess is we'll come home with 4.  Absolute best case scenario is probably 6 medals, with 4 of those having a realistic shot at gold.  

 

Not gonna pick this apart line by line but my general thoughts RE: your post:

 

57 - In order to medal at 57, he has to get by Khin, Rei, Rahimi, Aliev, Bonne, and a host of other studs. Yeah, he's got the wild card factor but that's too much of a mountain to overcome. Splitting hairs on the 1 v 5% though. 

 

61 - Logan gets it done when it matters. He's clutch as clutch can be. I agree this weight will be tougher as it's a non-Olympic year but even if he drops a match and goes to repechage, I still really strongly feel he has the drive to get it done. 

 

65 - Zain's motor and wild card factor are going to be tough for anyone. Molinaro took 5th and Zain won 2 of 3 against him. This is also a pretty wide open weight where a lot of different guys can come into the picture and place high. 

 

Agreed on 70-86

 

97 - Snyder unless he has a fluke early round loss and the guy who beats him runs into Sadulaev in the next round, I don't see Snyder not placing. Even if Snyder himself runs into Sadulaev and loses (which I expect him to if they meet), he'll still make it through repechage. He's also a lot like Logan in that he might lose an odd one here or there but he gets it done when it matters. With Sad at the weight, I give him a 20% shot at winning it all but very high to medal. 

 

Fatties - If Tervel couldn't break through, don't see Gwiz doing it yet. 

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Gilman - 5% possible if he gets a good draw but not sure if his par terre defense will be good enough at this level

 

Steiber - 35% he certainly could but there are some good wrestlers at this weight that weren't there last year.

 

Zain - 25% I am higher on Frank than most so I think beating him twice is really a huge accomplishment. Could see him making a good run at a tough weight

 

Green - 45% he's really looking good. I think he is among our top medal hopes

 

Burroughs - 45% nothing will come easy but I think he's still got enough left to make a solid run

 

Cox - depends on his health. Probably around 40%. Taylor would be about the same.

 

Snyder - 80% the only one where if he didn't medal it would genuinely be a surprise.

 

Gwiz - 8% he's clearly jumped a level to be best in the US, but not sure if that's going to be enough on a world stage

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