Medal likelihood for USA at Worlds

[Housebuye 2,438]

Gilman

Wouldn't be the biggest shock for him to make the podium, but it is a long shot. Good news is a lot of the hammers from this weight class are moving up, so some up and comers will medal. 10% chance

 

Stieber

World champ last year, but this weight is stacked. I see Stieber as one of the contenders, but I don't expect a Gold. He has the offense for it, but guys like_Khinchegashvili are big favorites over him. Probably the most controversial one of the list, but I say 50% to medal.

 

Rutherford

Has limited international experience, and while the US hasn't had the best results here, he did beat an excellent field to make the team. His style doesn't leave him open to where Americans tend to fail when they transition. Another excellent international weight class, but Rutherford will eventually medal I don't know if that will happen this year. If he wins he's s first two, I think he has a great shot due to his incredible gas tank. He will be in the best cardio shape in the field and needs to use that advantage.

20%

 

James Green

Green is looking better than ever. He completely dominates domestically. His style works well against international guys. I am very confident he medals and has a good shot at gold.

75%

 

Jordan Burroughs

This is anyone's guess. I expect that he believes he can win, which is half the battle. His wins over Dake were very impressive, demonstrating he still has that grit that many suggested he had lost post Gedoev loss. The question is, can his new style translate when facing the best in the world. I say yes

80% to medal

 

Cox

Assuming his knee is fine, I expect him to contend for gold. Yazdani could give him trouble, but I see him beating the rest of the field.

80% to medal

 

Kyle Snyder

He takes some losses, but not when it counts. I picked him to win gold in 2015 too, and I think he wins his third in a row over a game Russian.

90% to medal

 

Gwiz

Happy he made the team. I think he has the best shot at a medal compared to the rest fo our heavyweights. This might not be his year, but I expect him to pick up some medals over the next few years. His speed and constant attacking will cause problems for his opponents, especially after his first match.

20% to medal.

[TheRealOne9050 267]

Stieber

World champ last year, but this weight is stacked. I see Stieber as one of the contenders, but I don't expect a Gold. He has the offense for it, but guys like_Khinchegashvili are big favorites over him. Probably the most controversial one of the list, but I say 50% to medal.

 

More likely Haji Aliyev. Khinchegashvili is at 57.

 

EDIT: Or is he moving up?

Edited July 6, 2017 by TheRealOne9050

[Chingadiculous 155]

Green, JB, Cox and Snyder are the only realistic shots the US has at medaling. Personally I am rooting for a big old goose egg for the team USA medal count. Here's to 4 years of hitting rock bottom! Don't let Stieber's JV gold medal fool you into believing he will replicate last year's performance. Too many good guys bumping up from 57kg to dethrone the paper champion.t

[IronChef 1,101]

The percentages given in the original post predict an average of 4.25 medals for the US. 

[Jaroslav Hasek 2,050]

More likely Haji Aliyev. Khinchegashvili is at 57.

 

EDIT: Or is he moving up?

Khinche is moving up. 

 

a lot of guys are clearing out of 57. I think a lot of guys are avoiding the cut until they see what the new weights will be after Paris. 

 

because of that I think Gilman has a legitimate shot at medaling. depends on the draw but a bronze is not out of the question. 

[Abdullahgadzhi Khuzin 1,466]

57 - bye

61 - bronze

65 - bye

70 - bronze (50%)

74 - silver/gold

86 - silver/gold

97 - bronze/silver/gold

125 - bye 

[boconnell 1,628]

I think Green's medal chances are too high.  I'd say more like 50% (still awesome).  

 

And I agree that our low end guys have an outside shot.  Not because they are in the top 4 guys in the world, but because 1st time Americans tend to do very well relative to their actual talent.  So if Gilman is a top 15 guy in the field (meaning top 30 or so in the world), a good draw on the smaller half of the bracket and a single consolation upset over a guy who didn't have him scouted puts him in a bronze medal match while he still isn't close to top 10 in the world (or even in the field).  Flo did a recent article that showed how well our first time guys do relative to their actual level.

[pamela 1,334]

Which of our non-prior medalists (i.e., haven't won a senior World medal before) do you think has the best chance at winning a medal at Worlds?

 

It feels like 57kg is very much "up for grabs" and Thomas Gilman has the best odds of the non-priors on the team. Maybe Tamyra Mensah also at 69kg on the womens side.

[Housebuye 2,438]

The percentages given in the original post predict an average of 4.25 medals for the US.

Seeing as there are 5 returning medalists (including 3 gold) and fame underdogs in the remaining weight classes, that seems about right to me

[sgallan 592]

Green, JB, Cox and Snyder are the only realistic shots the US has at medaling. Personally I am rooting for a big old goose egg for the team USA medal count. Here's to 4 years of hitting rock bottom! Don't let Stieber's JV gold medal fool you into believing he will replicate last year's performance. Too many good guys bumping up from 57kg to dethrone the paper champion.t

 

I could see only one, but not none...... I would be stunned if Snyder didn't medal. 

[spladle08 1,126]

4 medals seems like a win, i gave my percentages in the other thread... id say Cox/Snyder/Green/Burroughs all strong contenders while a medal at any other weight (steiber included) while not impossible is

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

Edited July 6, 2017 by spladle08

[2td3nf 586]

Just looking at the Olympic and World medal results from 2006 thru 2016.

 

Of note, USA had a whopping 4 medals in 2006 and a big goose egg in 2010. Throughout that span, USA won a total of 22 medals, Russia won 62 medals, Iran won 37 and Azerbaijan won 30.

 

So over the past 11 years the average medal count of these 4 countries at each World/Olympic tournament breaks down to:

 

Russia  5.6 medals

 

Iran  3.4 medals

 

AZE  2.7 medals

 

USA  2.0 medals

Edited July 6, 2017 by 2td3nf

[Housebuye 2,438]

Just looking at the Olympic and World medal results from 2006 thru 2016.

 

Of note, USA had a whopping 4 medals in 2006 and a big goose egg in 2010. Throughout that span, USA won a total of 22 medals, Russia won 62 medals, Iran won 37 and Azerbaijan won 30.

 

So over the past 11 years the average medal count of these 4 countries at each World/Olympic tournament breaks down to:

 

Russia 5.6 medals

 

Iran 3.4 medals

 

AZE 2.7 medals

 

USA 2.0 medals

Interesting! What was the highest count for each country during that span?

[2td3nf 586]

Interesting! What was the highest count for each country during that span?

Russia: 7 World medals out of 8 weight classes in 2015

 

Iran: 5 World medals out of 7 weight classes in 2013 and 8 weight classes in 2014

 

AZE: 5 Olympic medals out of 6 weight classes and 1 World medal out of 2 weight classes in 2016

 

USA: 4 World medals out of 7 weight classes in 2006

Edited July 7, 2017 by 2td3nf

[Eagle26 598]

Gilman

Wouldn't be the biggest shock for him to make the podium, but it is a long shot. Good news is a lot of the hammers from this weight class are moving up, so some up and comers will medal. 10% chance

Stieber

World champ last year, but this weight is stacked. I see Stieber as one of the contenders, but I don't expect a Gold. He has the offense for it, but guys like_Khinchegashvili are big favorites over him. Probably the most controversial one of the list, but I say 50% to medal.

Rutherford

Has limited international experience, and while the US hasn't had the best results here, he did beat an excellent field to make the team. His style doesn't leave him open to where Americans tend to fail when they transition. Another excellent international weight class, but Rutherford will eventually medal I don't know if that will happen this year. If he wins he's s first two, I think he has a great shot due to his incredible gas tank. He will be in the best cardio shape in the field and needs to use that advantage.

20%

James Green

Green is looking better than ever. He completely dominates domestically. His style works well against international guys. I am very confident he medals and has a good shot at gold.

75%

Jordan Burroughs

This is anyone's guess. I expect that he believes he can win, which is half the battle. His wins over Dake were very impressive, demonstrating he still has that grit that many suggested he had lost post Gedoev loss. The question is, can his new style translate when facing the best in the world. I say yes

80% to medal

Cox

Assuming his knee is fine, I expect him to contend for gold. Yazdani could give him trouble, but I see him beating the rest of the field.

80% to medal

Kyle Snyder

He takes some losses, but not when it counts. I picked him to win gold in 2015 too, and I think he wins his third in a row over a game Russian.

90% to medal

Gwiz

Happy he made the team. I think he has the best shot at a medal compared to the rest fo our heavyweights. This might not be his year, but I expect him to pick up some medals over the next few years. His speed and constant attacking will cause problems for his opponents, especially after his first match.

20% to medal.

Good analysis... I could nit pick a little on percentages, but I pretty much agree on all counts. I think this is good team. I definitely think 4 medals is likely with a chance at 5 or more.

[de4856 371]

Well there are many factors to consider, the training and preparation, the athletes health, their mental outlook, and the draw, our wrestlers receive.

If everything can come together for the individuals on our team, I think we could surprise some people. That being said you do have to recognize that all the weight classes will be tough, some however, like 61, will be an absolute demolition derby.

My thought is if Logiebear can manage to stay out of that fray for as long possible, perhaps he can capitalize on the fact that his opponent(s) may have spent a ton of energy just getting to this position in the bracket. This actually works for all our wrestlers, but specifically for those who find themselves in an absolutely stacked weight class.

I feel that if our wrestlers do have an advantage over the rest of the field, it will be in our endurance and recovery.

Anyway that being said, I feel optimistic about our chances. Hopefully our wrestlers can draw a bye in the first round and then follow that up with a win, it would set them up nicely in the quarterfinals. And if we have a significant number of wrestlers making it to that point, we should be able to convert some of those into finalists, and others for a shot at a Bronze. Go Team USA!

[sgallan 592]

Well there are many factors to consider, the training and preparation, the athletes health, their mental outlook, and the draw, our wrestlers receive.

If everything can come together for the individuals on our team, I think we could surprise some people. That being said you do have to recognize that all the weight classes will be tough, some however, like 61, will be an absolute demolition derby.

My thought is if Logiebear can manage to stay out of that fray for as long possible, perhaps he can capitalize on the fact that his opponent(s) may have spent a ton of energy just getting to this position in the bracket. This actually works for all our wrestlers, but specifically for those who find themselves in an absolutely stacked weight class.

I feel that if our wrestlers do have an advantage over the rest of the field, it will be in our endurance and recovery.

Anyway that being said, I feel optimistic about our chances. Hopefully our wrestlers can draw a bye in the first round and then follow that up with a win, it would set them up nicely in the quarterfinals. And if we have a significant number of wrestlers making it to that point, we should be able to convert some of those into finalists, and others for a shot at a Bronze. Go Team USA!

 

Outside of an undersized Yandani Iran seemed to have seriously good lungs in the world cup. If anything they wore out our wrestlers physically and mentally. Those under hooks are just brutal. Azerbijain wrestlers also don't seem to tire as a rule. I get the feeling the new rules have wrestlers peaking their training to a specific time frame and it takes away some of our grinder, count on wearing them out, mindset.... which ironically is something they use against us by playing possum late getting us to over commit and get the late points to win and/or put it away.    

[de4856 371]

Speaking of the Iranian underhook, if you go back and watch Novachkov's match with the Iranian at Rio. The Iranian was intent on digging the underhook every chance he got, yet Boris was able to move laterally and reposition his arm, and it effortlessly nullified the Iranians attack. Hopefully our wrestlers are also looking at this as well. I know that in James Green's match with the Iranian in the World's in Vegas, it appeared to me that the Iranian was basically running across the mat to stick in an underhook to neutralize JG's attacks from the open. So the underhook is something that needs to be dealt with.

As far as the endurance factor, sgallan makes some valid points, but I think that generally our endurance is top notch. Other individuals may match our wrestlers, but as a team I would go with our wrestlers. Now I know someone will point out an instance here or there, that shows something other than the point I am trying to make, and I'll say okay, but was that a weight issue, was it something else? I would highly doubt it was due to lack of preparedness.

Fortunately we are no longer in the two minute ball grab era, I think our best bet is to make their wrestlers wrestle a full six minutes.

Edited July 8, 2017 by de4856

[Plasmodium 2,266]

Speaking of the Iranian underhook, if you go back and watch Novachkov's match with the Iranian at Rio. The Iranian was intent on digging the underhook every chance he got, yet Boris was able to move laterally and reposition his arm, and it effortlessly nullified the Iranians attack. Hopefully our wrestlers are also looking at this as well. I know that in James Green's match with the Iranian in the World's in Vegas, it appeared to me that the Iranian was basically running across the mat to stick in an underhook to neutralize JG's attacks from the open. So the underhook is something that needs to be dealt with.

As far as the endurance factor, sgallan makes some valid points, but I think that generally our endurance is top notch. Other individuals may match our wrestlers, but as a team I would go with our wrestlers. Now I know someone will point out an instance here or there, that shows something other than the point I am trying to make, and I'll say okay, but was that a weight issue, was it something else? I would highly doubt it was due to lack of preparedness.

Fortunately we are no longer in the two minute ball grab era, I think our best bet is to make their wrestlers wrestle a full six minutes.

Green's Iranian opponent in Vegas was Yazdani.  I feel Cox has an excellent chance of beating him.

[2td3nf 586]

I agree with a lot of what you posters are saying. Many good points on this topic.

 

Every match is different, every wrestler is different and every match-up is different. But looking at the stats over the years, USA seems to get bounced out of the championship bracket by losing a very close match time and time again.

 

Is it conditioning (doubt it), freestyle technique, getting mentally lazy, falling behind and not being urgent enough, sitting on a lead, not being aggressive enough from the get go, the possum thing, are the opponents just 1 or 2 points better, or is it something else?

 

Again, these guys are studs in the championship bracket, especially the deeper it gets, and it's sports where anything can happen. And I know, this is easier said than done - it is the World Championships of our great sport!

Edited July 8, 2017 by 2td3nf

[AllISeeIsBronze 65]

Green's Iranian opponent in Vegas was Yazdani. I feel Cox has an excellent chance of beating him.

Agreed. I feel like Yazdani's style doesn't do as well against people who use lateral motion; that's why he wants to crowd people and trap them against the edge of the mat. He had a harder time winning against James Green than Alex Diernger, and that's why I think if he faced either JB at 74 or Cox now, he'll struggle.

[newyorkwrestler 258]

JB - gold

cox - bronze

Snyder - silver

[2td3nf 586]

"I think our best bet is to make their wrestlers wrestle a full six minutes."           

 

de4856, totally agree with this and agree with the flip side as well: If our wrestlers give it 100% for the full six minutes they'll be ok for the most part.

 

Hey, if we get beat by a champ or someone who is truly better, shake his hand and keep your head up. Just leave it all on the mat for that six minutes, each and every match at Worlds.

 

Just my opinion.

Edited July 8, 2017 by 2td3nf

[de4856 371]

Well if I were to venture a guess why some of our wrestlers do well nationally, but don't do well internationally,

I think we have been behind the curve to some other countries in technique and match strategy, however, I do feel that, that gap is closing or has closed. Fortunately as I posted earlier, that we are no longer in the ball grab era, So this business of standing around for a minute or so then launching one attack is no longer really valid. I do like folkstyle wrestling, but perhaps their is an issue where our wrestlers are just not on equal footing with some of the nuances of Freestyle.

I think that perhaps our youth program(s), have also been a little behind other countries as well. Now I am not involved with any youth programs, so I am speculating, but looking at the recent success we have been having at the lower levels, I think that perhaps we are closing/closed that gap as well.

I feel another reason could be experience and exposure. Many of the foreign wrestlers are use to traveling all over the globe and competing, our guys and gals not so much. I think the more our wrestlers are exposed to the international scene, along with the feel of other international wrestlers, the more comfortable they become with it. I really believe that when our wrestlers gain experience in School boy/ Cadet division on an international level, it pays off greatly for the individual, and subsequently for the program. I think gaining experience in the Junior level is also very important as well. As we can see that many of our guys and gals who make our Senior teams had experience and success at these lower levels.

[Peso 331]

I can see every single weight medaling.  I certainly don't predict that, but we are just flat out getting better.  Freestyle success is up from cadets to seniors.  Let's see how our Jr's do in a few weeks.  Then our Cadets.  I'm tellin you guys, our stock in the World Market is trending up.