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Gable "Dan" Steveson

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The best i've seen in HS is Mocco.   Does Mocco have junior results to speak of?   I don't remember him doing these tournaments back when he was 17.         Mocco came right out of HS and was in the NCAA final.         Where does Gable match up with Mocco at this stage of both their careers?     

 

I don't like the Snyder route for Gable.   I'd prefer he stay home and hit some camps and trips to OTC during the year.      Stay home get the 4th title, enjoy his senior year like a normal kid, and continue to develop as he has been.    He has excellent coaches at his HS and he seems to be improving anyways.  

 

At this time I think he is old enough to make his own call, if he wants to graduate with his class, given his age, and his results thus far, I don't see the problem. If he wants to move along I don't see the problem either.

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Nevills the sequel is plenty tough, maybe already better than his brother, but Stevenson is just such a natural, is so quick and light on his feet, does angles, works from both sides, I don't see the match-up. The only thing he needs is a little more physicality, but dang, he is still a teen. He will grow into that and get used too it wrestling Snyder.  

 

 

Crazy to think that Seth can be a 4x undefeated champ in Cali and perhaps pin everyone for 2 years and there is a guy out there that is just almost unreachable in talent level even for him. But this stuff happens in this sport. 

 

Wasn't Bo Jordan #1 P4P coming out of high school one year? If not he was right there. Who'd have thunk zero NCAA titles for him, but it just might happen that way. 

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Crazy to think that Seth can be a 4x undefeated champ in Cali and perhaps pin everyone for 2 years and there is a guy out there that is just almost unreachable in talent level even for him. But this stuff happens in this sport. 

 

Wasn't Bo Jordan #1 P4P coming out of high school one year? If not he was right there. Who'd have thunk zero NCAA titles for him, but it just might happen that way. 

don't recall if he was #1 P4P and my recall in this area isn't great, but my hunch is BoJo has fared better than at least a few other P4P #1s. Even if he DNP next year, 3-3-2 is pretty freaking good. I'm betting we could find a P4P #1 who placed 1x or even not at all. 

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At this time I think he is old enough to make his own call, if he wants to graduate with his class, given his age, and his results thus far, I don't see the problem. If he wants to move along I don't see the problem either.

 

 

Right.   And that's exactly what I mean.   Lets not make the decision for him.  He hasn't indicated he wants to go that route so my support would be in him staying where he is.  If he comes out and says he wants to go another route, all the support for that as well.    

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Mocco placed 4th in juniors in 2001 

 

 

Thanks.   You wouldn't have any insight on what his bracket was like, would you?      If Karelin, Baumgartner, and the Cuban were in it, I can see 4th as being pretty fricken great.     Trying to find some context for that placing is all.    

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Yup and it was after his senior year and I think he was 19 (could be wrong on his age). Gable is a 17 year old after his Jr year of HS.

 

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

That's some of the context I was looking for.   Yes that puts Gable quite a ways out in front of Mocco in my view.   Pretty damn amazing.     

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That's some of the context I was looking for. Yes that puts Gable quite a ways out in front of Mocco in my view. Pretty damn amazing.

Yeah it's pretty crazy. Mocco did beat an AA or 2 while still in HS. I'm hoping to see Gable in a college and/or a senior level event this year. I wouldn't move to the senior circuit full time just yet but it would be great to see him test the waters.

 

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

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Thanks. You wouldn't have any insight on what his bracket was like, would you? If Karelin, Baumgartner, and the Cuban were in it, I can see 4th as being pretty fricken great. Trying to find some context for that placing is all.

nobody of note in that bracket really or I should say no senior world or Olympic medals out of the group.

 

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Edited by tec87

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Crazy to think that Seth can be a 4x undefeated champ in Cali and perhaps pin everyone for 2 years and there is a guy out there that is just almost unreachable in talent level even for him. But this stuff happens in this sport. 

 

Wasn't Bo Jordan #1 P4P coming out of high school one year? If not he was right there. Who'd have thunk zero NCAA titles for him, but it just might happen that way. 

 

Okay.

Edited by sgallan

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don't recall if he was #1 P4P and my recall in this area isn't great, but my hunch is BoJo has fared better than at least a few other P4P #1s. Even if he DNP next year, 3-3-2 is pretty freaking good. I'm betting we could find a P4P #1 who placed 1x or even not at all.

No doubt. Probably should have gone with Destin McCauley if I truly wanted a guy who never came close. Seth looks like a great recruit, just not quite on Gables level.

Edited by TBar1977

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The best i've seen in HS is Mocco.   Does Mocco have junior results to speak of?   I don't remember him doing these tournaments back when he was 17.         Mocco came right out of HS and was in the NCAA final.         Where does Gable match up with Mocco at this stage of both their careers?     

 

I don't like the Snyder route for Gable.   I'd prefer he stay home and hit some camps and trips to OTC during the year.      Stay home get the 4th title, enjoy his senior year like a normal kid, and continue to develop as he has been.    He has excellent coaches at his HS and he seems to be improving anyways.

 

As I said in another topic, I agree. It's not like he is not getting great coaching already. There's plenty of training partners for him up there as well. One year at the OTC is not going to make a huge difference, if any, in the career of Gable Steveson. Plus you take away his senior year being away from home and his brother and family and it could even possibly hurt him. He's doing just fine the way it is.

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Crazy to think that Seth can be a 4x undefeated champ in Cali and perhaps pin everyone for 2 years and there is a guy out there that is just almost unreachable in talent level even for him. But this stuff happens in this sport. 

 

Wasn't Bo Jordan #1 P4P coming out of high school one year? If not he was right there. Who'd have thunk zero NCAA titles for him, but it just might happen that way. 

 

http://d1collegewrestling.net/Top200_2013.html

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Anything is possible, but if you want to lay odds, Gable is as good a bet as you are going to find. I don't know the ins and outs of what all the other great recruits did in HS and why some didn't flourish, but in fact the rankings are pretty good indicators of future success just glancing at the lists. As a few examples:

 

2016: of the top five we had Mark Hall win NCAAs and Suriano put up a great season only to forfeit at Big Tens. The other three Marinelli (red shirted), Isaiah White (red shirted?) and Nick Reenan was an NCAA qualifier but went 0-2. That's after true freshman year, by the way.

 

2015: Stellar top five. Four of the top five redshirted and their first NCAAs was 2017. Four of five AA'd ... 2 NCAA champs (Martin 2016, Cenzo, 2017), 2 third place (Zahid and Logan Massa). Anthony Valencia (#1) went 2-1 in NCAAs and DNP. Logan Massa (#2) takes third at 165 in NCAAs. Zahid Valencia (#3) third in NCAAs at 174. Myles Martin (#4) takes first in 2016 and 5th in 2017 NCAAs (only one of the top five 2015 recruits who didn't redshirt), Cenzo (#5) wins NCAAs in his redshirt freshman year.

 

2014: Interesting top 5: #1 Kyle Snyder (enough said), #2 Chance Marstellar, we all know what happened there, #3 Bryce Brill, injuries ended his career, #4 Jason Nolf, stellar so far 2x NCAA finalist, 1x champ, only lost 2x in college so far, #5 Nick Nevilles, 5th in NCAAs in 2017. 

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Now look at #1 intermat recruits since 2005:

 

#1 recruits over the years:

 

2016: Mark Hall (NCAA #1 frosh)

2015: Anthony Valencia (dnp frosh)

2014: Kyle Snyder (NCAA finalist frosh, 2x champ so far)

2013: Bo Jordan (NCAA 3rd frosh, 3rd soph, 2nd junior)

2012: Jason Tsitsis (NCAA #1 frosh, down hill from there)

2011: Morgan McIntosh (NCAA dnp frosh, NCAA #2 senior)

2010 Logan Stieber (NCAA #1 frosh)

2009 David Taylor (NCAA finalist frosh, 2x champ, 4x finalist, 2x hodge)

2008 Jason Welch (NCAA #2 senior)

2007 Cody Gardner (bust)

2006 David Craig Brandon (bust)

2005: Dustin Schlatter (NCAA #1 frosh)

 

to summarize:

 

1. There were 12 number one recruits 2005 - 2016

2. Four #1 recruits won NCAAs as a freshman. That's 33%.

3. Two number one recruits were finalists as freshman and then won multiple NCAA titles (Snyder and Taylor).

4. 50% of the #1 recruits were NCAA finalists as freshman and won at least one NCAA title

5. Three more #1 recruits made the NCAA finals at least once (BoJo, Morgan McIntosh and Jason Welch). So nine of twelve #1 recruits made an NCAA final or better at least once.

6. Only two of the #1 recruits had really disappointing (vs expectations) careers that are over (Cody Gordon and David Craig-Brandon). 

7. Anthony Valencia still has many years to place high ... we shall see.

 

So the way I would look at it is that being the #1 recruit is from the point of odds a very good predictor of huge NCAA success. I mean there are ten weight classes and how many Division One wrestlers? Even looking at qualifiers there are 32 per weight. For the number one recruit to win as a frosh 1/3rd of the time is an incredible beating of the odds and to make the finals half the time is nuts. Compare that to the number of freshman who win or make the finals. It's super significant.

 

Next observation: the washouts (in the top five) mostly seem to me to be either personal problems or injuries or school choices that didn't favor success. These are what we watch out for. 

 

- Cody Gardner apparently developed problems with drugs (according to an intermat article, I say this with respect as his story and end are heartbreaking

- Chance Marstellar, we all know his story to date. If he settles down he could make some noise. If not he will be another washout.

- Bryce Brill's career is said to have ended due to injuries

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So how does this impact my assessment of Gable Steveson's prospects. First, going just with the odds, Gable has a 50% chance of making the finals his freshman year (well not really, but you know what I mean). In addition, I think it's higher than that because he chose to go to school close to home and with his brother. It's often the case that being close to family and friends is a big part of not having those debilitating person problems. He made a wise choice which shows he's focused on success.

 

That leaves two major stumbling blocks. The first is injuries. That's always the ex factor and something to worry about, but truthfully for a guy who is imminently healthy so far, the odds are still very low. Not many wrestlers as a fraction of the total, are seriously hampered by injuries. After that there's always the possibility he is simply bested. Mark Hall came around and stopped BoJo's chances of being a multiple time champ. Snyder stopped Gwiz from being a 3x-er. Dake stopped Taylor from being a 3x-er. It's possible of course that some other young guy will develop and move ahead of Gable just as for example Gabe Dean who was far behind Morgan McIntosh in college, ended up far ahead of him. 

 

It's the last point I am most confident WILL NOT happen to Gable and this is where his accomplishment come in. He's opened up such a huge gap between him and the next guy it just seems that much more likely. He's starting out so far ahead and is so well placed to remain ahead it's insane. The guy is still two-thirds baby fat if you haven't noticed. 

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Gable is still a boy. You can tell from his body that he is not close to fully physically mature. He is overpowering guys right now mainly due to his quickness and excellent position (maximizes leverage), and not primarily due to strength and size. After a year or two of physical maturation and a proper D1 lifting regimen (the Gophers are probably the most jacked team of the past 10-15 years, in my opinion), he is going to be unstoppable. I absolutely think he'll be ready to represent us by 2020.

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