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Now that Suriano is gone, who is your Pre-Season Team Favorite?

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PSU:

 

125:DNQ

133:Keener (2-2) 3pts

141:Lee? (1-2) .5pts

149:Retherford 1st 28pts

157:Nolf 1st 27.5pts

165:Joseph 3rd 16pts

174:Hall 1st 22 pts

184:Nickal 1st 27 pts

197:McCutcheon 7th 6ts

285:Nevills 4th 13pts

 

PSU-144pts  Although this is about at the highest cummulative end, it is really hard to see any one of these guys underperforming these expectations.

 

 

tOSU: The below is about their highest possible cummulative outcome.  All of them could realistically achieve the below, but it is far more likely that at least one of Pletcher and Hayes don't reach the podium, Tomasello has some issues with 125, Jordan gets outhorsed a bit at 157 and MyMar doesn't reach the Finals.

 

125:Tomasello 1st 23pts

133:Pletcher 7th 6pts

141:Hayes 8th 5pts

149:McKenna 5th 9pts

157:Jordan 5th 9pts

165:Campbell (3-2) R12 4pts

174:BoJo 2nd 20pts

184:MyMar 2nd 20pts

197:Moore 1st 25pts

285:Snyder 1st 27pts

 

tOSU-148pts

 

So, I would still put PSU as the favorite since I think their low end possibility is still much higher than tOSU's.  As of now I would say it is PSU 60/40 over tOSU.  What say you?

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PSU:

 

125:DNQ

133:Keener (2-2) 3pts

141:Lee? (1-2) .5pts

149:Retherford 1st 28pts

157:Nolf 1st 27.5pts

165:Joseph 3rd 16pts

174:Hall 1st 22 pts

184:Nickal 1st 27 pts

197:McCutcheon 7th 6ts

285:Nevills 4th 13pts

 

PSU-144pts  Although this is about at the highest cummulative end, it is really hard to see any one of these guys underperforming these expectations.

 

 

tOSU: The below is about their highest possible cummulative outcome.  All of them could realistically achieve the below, but it is far more likely that at least one of Pletcher and Hayes don't reach the podium, Tomasello has some issues with 125, Jordan gets outhorsed a bit at 157 and MyMar doesn't reach the Finals.

 

125:Tomasello 1st 23pts

133:Pletcher 7th 6pts

141:Hayes 8th 5pts

149:McKenna 5th 9pts

157:Jordan 5th 9pts

165:Campbell (3-2) R12 4pts

174:BoJo 2nd 20pts

184:MyMar 2nd 20pts

197:Moore 1st 25pts

285:Snyder 1st 27pts

 

tOSU-148pts

 

So, I would still put PSU as the favorite since I think their low end possibility is still much higher than tOSU's.  As of now I would say it is PSU 60/40 over tOSU.  What say you?

 

I agree with this...

 

Just like in the dual meet situation, PSU's win would be by a very narrow margin, where as tOSU could have a very solid big win...

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I still think Penn State is the favorite but it's a little closer now. However:

 

PSU

I do think Keener will score more than you're giving him credit for.

Lee, if he even wrestles, will likely do better than just one win, even in a stacked weight like 141. 

Cutch could place a little higher as 197 is completely gutted and he has another year to fill into the weight. He could also score less. 

The rest are pretty reasonable. Cenzo could repeat but I think 3rd is fine for now. 

 

Ohio State

If Zahid is up at 184 like we all expect him to be, I do not think MyMar will be 2nd.

8th for Hayes might be a little high with as deep as 141 is. 

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It's very close atm... may come down to a hall/Jordan final at 174 if both guys make it that far (zahid could knock out either one). Getting the 1 seed at 174 is a big deal.. I predict Cortez goes at 141 and lee uses his redshirt. End result is probably the same with a 2 and 2 type run (141 is just so deep). Not sure of o see Hayes on the podium either but I could see tosu placing higher than 7th at 133. Can't wait to see how things unfold. The margin for error for either team is razor thin. I give a 1 point advantage to tosu right now.

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I think PSU wins, by a very close margin, however, if the Buckeyes take it, It wouldn't surprised me. Injuries, seeding, peaking, bracket busters, will all have an influence on things. It will be very exciting to see.

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Agreed with all the above that PSU is still the favorite, but things at least will be interesting now.

 

I strongly disagree with this statement: "it is really hard to see any one of these guys underperforming these expectations."  Joseph and Hall got a lot of lucky breaks throughout the tournament last year and that's highly unlikely to happen again.

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Agreed with all the above that PSU is still the favorite, but things at least will be interesting now.

 

I strongly disagree with this statement: "it is really hard to see any one of these guys underperforming these expectations."  Joseph and Hall got a lot of lucky breaks throughout the tournament last year and that's highly unlikely to happen again.

 

Eh, I agree with half that. Hall got a lucky break. Cenzo made his "lucky breaks." He was outstanding the entire tournament and beat his last 3 opponents with the same damn move. No luck involved there. 

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Eh, I agree with half that. Hall got a lucky break. Cenzo made his "lucky breaks." He was outstanding the entire tournament and beat his last 3 opponents with the same damn move. No luck involved there.

 

Agreed.. Cenzo's wins were all clean and controversy free. The only real "questionable" call I remember was IMar's takedown in the first period and that call went against him.

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Agreed.. Cenzo's wins were all clean and controversy free. The only real "questionable" call I remember was IMar's takedown in the first period and that call went against him.

Cenzo was outstanding in a tough weight class.

 

He was lucky not to get hit with stalling against Massa. But that's subjective in folkstyle.

 

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PSU has more stability in their projections with a more solid and proven lineup, so if you are handicapping at this stage, you have to go with PSU with confidence.

 

That said, several of the guys could significantly outperform where you have them. The reverse if also, true: several of the guys could significantly underperform your projections. I believe Pletcher at 133 could do a lot better than 7th. It wouldn't surprise me if either McKenna or Micah Jordan ended up in the finals, and it also wouldn't surprise me if either fails to place. Hayes is a big unknown at this point, but based on his best work last season and his rate of improvement over the past few years, I could say the same about him to a lesser degree (he has he talent to be top 3 or 4). tOSU probably has 10-15 points of upside to your projections without stretching the mind too much, but what is the likelihood of that outcome, 10%? 20%? Very hard to know at this stage.

 

Since I like underdogs, I'll be rooting for the upset, but the smart money is undeniably on PSU unless you give very good odds.

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Eh, I agree with half that. Hall got a lucky break. Cenzo made his "lucky breaks." He was outstanding the entire tournament and beat his last 3 opponents with the same damn move. No luck involved there.

Fully agree. Zero luck. A+ preparation and match strategy. Probably the best coaching job I've seen at NCAAs since Gable/Whitmer. (Before I get flamed, I am very aware that much bigger underdogs have outperformed more, but I am strictly talking about performances that were clearly planned for and coached to perfection, not necessarily breakout athlete performances.)

 

The big question for me is whether the other coaches can successfully adjust now that the cat is out of the bag or whether Cenzo took a permanent step up in levels and can replicate his positional control and mental composure to the same degree this year. The kid is undeniably athletic enough to have stepped up permanently and even gained new techniques over the summer. Cenzo is probably the most studied wrestler in the country over the summer, so he better be ready for it.

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Don't be surprised if Jordan gets beaten handily by Hall this season. And if Zahid is at 174, don't be surprised to see Jordan take the most lopsided loss of his wrestling career.

But, the guy doesn't lose badly.  Hell, he gave Dieringer his closest match of the season as a RS Freshman.  I wouldn't be surprised if Hall or Zahid beat him, but BoJo's style doesn't really lend himself to lopsided losses.

 

BoJo has 7 losses in his career.  Here they are(in order):

 

Z. Jordan 3-2

A. Dieringer 6-1

Z. Jordan 6-4

Z. Jordan 3-1

Z. Jordan 5-4

B. Realbuto 3-2

M. Hall 5-2

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Jordan should have beaten him twice last year with not really wrestling for 18 month. This season will be his first healthy season in the last 2 years. Hall will not beat him but if he does it wont be handily and we will probably see it 3 times.

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I have to agree with those who believe Hall > Jordan.  I think that Hall continues to distance himself now that he's no longer a true frosh, and has won yet another Jr. World Championship (handily) in freestyle.  Given that he will most likely go 79kg, he will be able to bulk into 174, and not be a "small fry" in the weight.  With this, the gap between him and the competition becomes increasingly wider.  

 

Hall is the next 4x'er.  Mark (Hall) my words!  ha!

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I'll say PSU is the current favorite. 

 

I'll take the Bucks though. Going to be quite the team race.

 

I'll take Zahid to win whatever weight he is at. I'm not a huge fan, but I do recognize talent. He should've won it last year. 

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But, the guy doesn't lose badly.  Hell, he gave Dieringer his closest match of the season as a RS Freshman.  I wouldn't be surprised if Hall or Zahid beat him, but BoJo's style doesn't really lend himself to lopsided losses.

 

BoJo has 7 losses in his career.  Here they are(in order):

 

Z. Jordan 3-2

A. Dieringer 6-1

Z. Jordan 6-4

Z. Jordan 3-1

Z. Jordan 5-4

B. Realbuto 3-2

M. Hall 5-2

Nope. There's nothing special about his style that keeps him from getting blown out. He's just not facing great offensive wrestlers on his feet. The moment he wrestles a talented offensive wrestler on his feet, he's likely going to get blown away. Less-than-elite defensive fundamentals plus slow feet is not a good combination against a high level offensive wrestler. Hall and Zahid have the talent to one day get to the level of wrestler that can "light up" Bo Jordan. I think they already have it in them, though they probably couldn't do it consistently quite yet. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if one of them pulled it off this season. I think Zahid would have a better chance to earn a big win over Jordan due to his size.

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Nope. There's nothing special about his style that keeps him from getting blown out. He's just not facing great offensive wrestlers on his feet. The moment he wrestles a talented offensive wrestler on his feet, he's likely going to get blown away. Less-than-elite defensive fundamentals plus slow feet is not a good combination against a high level offensive wrestler. Hall and Zahid have the talent to one day get to the level of wrestler that can "light up" Bo Jordan. I think they already have it in them, though they probably couldn't do it consistently quite yet. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if one of them pulled it off this season. I think Zahid would have a better chance to earn a big win over Jordan due to his size.

Disagree on Hall.  As good as he is, most of his offense is "counter" offense.  He is exceptionally good at creating angles against leg attacks.  Also, he doesn't have the top wrestling ability to really do much against BoJo.  Can he win?  Absolutely.  Do I see him as more than a very slight favorite? Nope.  If BoJo is finally healthy, any gains Hall makes will be equally matched by BoJo.

 

As far as Valencia goes, I do really like his neutral wrestling.  He has the length and speed to get to BoJo's legs.  I am just not sold he will be able to handle BoJo's horsepower.  Again, I would not be the least bit surprised if he wins, but he isn't going to get ahead by 5 or more takedowns, which is what it would take at a minimum to call it a "lopsided result.  Because, remember, barring takedowns at the end of periods, 5 takedowns to zero ends up being about an 11-6 match.

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