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MSU158

Now that Suriano is gone, who is your Pre-Season Team Favorite?

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Let's revisit this once the lineups are set. You have a bet, if tOSU puts out this lineup:

 

125:NaTo

133:Pletcher

141:Hayes

149:McKenna(if Hayes and McKenna end up switched, I will still take the bet)

157:Micah

165:Campbell

174:BoJo

184:Martin

197:Moore

285:Snyder

 

Look, I am not arguing that PSU still isn't the favorite.  I just think acting like losing Suriano means nothing is folly.  tOSU returns 7 guys that have placed top 4.  Of those 7, 4 have AA'd multiple times with 3 NCAA Champs and 4 Finalists.  Between NaTo, BoJo, Martin, Moore and Snyder, tOSU has 5 to try to keep pace with PSU's 5(Retherford,Nolf, Joseph, Hall and Nickal).  They most likely won't be able to.  But, if they stay within 20, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna, M. Jordan and Campbell will most assuredly outscore PSU at the other 5 weights.

 

Simply put, if they had Suriano, I would agree with you.  Without him, they are vulnerable.

 

I agree that losing Suriano doesn't mean "nothing". Assuming he doesn't get hurt he's going to score points, probably somewhere in the top 3 in his weight. I'm just saying PSU is so far ahead of everybody else that it doesn't really matter. All those extra points would be to PSU would be increased margin of victory. Doesn't mean OSU can't pull off the upset, of course, we've seen the favorites lose at NCAAs before.

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PSU with Lee at 141 who gets 6th or so and then they have bunches of bonus points, and those are all but done deals. tOSU doesn't have the done deal bonus outside of their big guys. 184 at second isn't a given. NATO isn't a bonus guy. In other words, just like most years, everybody sells PSU short, and maybe a questionable performance gives hope, and then they run away with it. Again.

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Keep in mind that I have zero inside knowledge

 

125 Yanovich or Schnupp

133 Keener

141 Cortez w/Lee redshirt

149 Zain

157 Nolf

165 Joseph

174 Hall

184 Bo Nickal

197 Cutch or Cassar, whoever wins wrestleoff

Hwt Nevills

I guess Rasheed should join Suriano at Rutgers.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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PSU with Lee at 141 who gets 6th or so and then they have bunches of bonus points, and those are all but done deals. tOSU doesn't have the done deal bonus outside of their big guys. 184 at second isn't a given. NATO isn't a bonus guy. In other words, just like most years, everybody sells PSU short, and maybe a questionable performance gives hope, and then they run away with it. Again.

NaTo absolutely IS a bonus guy.  Especially at 125.  Here are his bonus pts. per season: 4.5, 3.5 and 2. That isn't Retherford/Nolf range, but it isn't bad either.

 

Here is the bonus history of each likely starter for both teams.

 

125:  NaTo-4.5,3.5,2,?-------PSU?-0

133:  Pletcher-0,?,?,?--------Keener-0,0,2,?

141:  Hayes-?,?,?,?----------Lee-?,?,?,?

149:  McKenna-0,1,?,?------Retherford-2(forfeit 5/6 match),8.5,8,?

157:  M. Jordan-2,5,?,?-----Nolf-6,7,?,?

165:  Campbell-0,1.5,?,?---Joseph-3,?,?,?

174:  BoJo-6,3,1,?-----------Hall-2.5,?,?,?

184:  Martin-1,3.5,?,?-------Nickal-2,7.5,?,?

197:  Moore-5,?,?,?---------McCutcheon-1.5,0,2,?

285:  Snyder-2,4.5,4,?--------Nevills-0,0,?,?

 

So, the bonus gap between the Top 5 really shouldn't be as large as people would automatically assume for PSU.  Obviously Retherford, Nolf and Nickal will outscore, but Snyder, Moore and NaTo shouldn't be that far behind.  Martin and BoJo should offset Joseph and Hall.  History would actually favor tOSU bonus wise for the "Other 5".

 

So, I really think placement points between the top 5 will be the real deciding factor. 1st place points are premium.  With the scoring being 16,12,10 for 1st-3rd, this is truly where PSU needs to distance themselves.

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Jordan should have beaten him twice last year with not really wrestling for 18 month. This season will be his first healthy season in the last 2 years. Hall will not beat him but if he does it wont be handily and we will probably see it 3 times.

 

 

Hall will handle Jordan whenever they run into each other.    He is only getting better and Jordan is likely a finished product.   He is what he is.      Mark Hall might light him up .    

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I didn't read through all 5 pages, but the returning champs have all of their NC's coming back. I'd say they're the favorites. Buuut go Hawks!

 

EDIT: And Devils!!

Edited by AZCO

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NATO gets his bonus points off the fish, not the top guys.

You wrestle 5 matches(6 if pigtailed) at NCAA's to win it all.  He may not get bonus in the semis and the finals.  Still, he has a career rate of roughly 2 out of every 3 matches.  So, if he wins 3 of the 5 by bonus, he is STILL a bonus type wrestler.  Now, that most likely won't match a Retherford/Nolf/Nickal production, but the difference isn't as big as many automatically assume.

 

Put it this way.  Assume that Nickal, Retherford and Nolf score 22.5 bonus again this year.  That will be very hard to repeat, but I will still give it to them.  Then take Snyder, Moore and NaTo.  Let's be conservative and say they score 14 bonus.  Is that 8.5 difference enough to cover the team score difference between the remaining 7?  I don't think so.  Hall and Joseph most likely wash with BoJo and Martin.  Then you have Micah, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna and Campbell vs. 125?, Keener, Lee?, McCutcheon and Nevills.  Do you honestly see that PSU squad staying within 8.5?

 

So, what I really think it comes down to is placement between the 2 "Top 5's".  How much higher will Retherford, Nolf, Joseph, Hall and Nickal finish as a collective vs. NaTo, BoJo, Martin, Moore and Nickal?  In the end, the bonus difference may end up being the difference, but the true deciding factor will come down to how these respective 5's finish.

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You wrestle 5 matches(6 if pigtailed) at NCAA's to win it all.  He may not get bonus in the semis and the finals.  Still, he has a career rate of roughly 2 out of every 3 matches.  So, if he wins 3 of the 5 by bonus, he is STILL a bonus type wrestler.  Now, that most likely won't match a Retherford/Nolf/Nickal production, but the difference isn't as big as many automatically assume.

 

Put it this way.  Assume that Nickal, Retherford and Nolf score 22.5 bonus again this year.  That will be very hard to repeat, but I will still give it to them.  Then take Snyder, Moore and NaTo.  Let's be conservative and say they score 14 bonus.  Is that 8.5 difference enough to cover the team score difference between the remaining 7?  I don't think so.  Hall and Joseph most likely wash with BoJo and Martin.  Then you have Micah, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna and Campbell vs. 125?, Keener, Lee?, McCutcheon and Nevills.  Do you honestly see that PSU squad staying within 8.5?

 

So, what I really think it comes down to is placement between the 2 "Top 5's".  How much higher will Retherford, Nolf, Joseph, Hall and Nickal finish as a collective vs. NaTo, BoJo, Martin, Moore and Nickal?  In the end, the bonus difference may end up being the difference, but the true deciding factor will come down to how these respective 5's finish.

 

 

I can't believe anyone would, after so many years of finding out this doesn't work, argue that some other (fill in the blank) team is going to somehow make the bonus point leap to close the gap on Sanderson's Penn State squad. 

 

I'll believe it when it eventually happens.

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You wrestle 5 matches(6 if pigtailed) at NCAA's to win it all.  He may not get bonus in the semis and the finals.  Still, he has a career rate of roughly 2 out of every 3 matches.  So, if he wins 3 of the 5 by bonus, he is STILL a bonus type wrestler.  Now, that most likely won't match a Retherford/Nolf/Nickal production, but the difference isn't as big as many automatically assume.

 

Put it this way.  Assume that Nickal, Retherford and Nolf score 22.5 bonus again this year.  That will be very hard to repeat, but I will still give it to them.  Then take Snyder, Moore and NaTo.  Let's be conservative and say they score 14 bonus.  Is that 8.5 difference enough to cover the team score difference between the remaining 7?  I don't think so.  Hall and Joseph most likely wash with BoJo and Martin.  Then you have Micah, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna and Campbell vs. 125?, Keener, Lee?, McCutcheon and Nevills.  Do you honestly see that PSU squad staying within 8.5?

 

So, what I really think it comes down to is placement between the 2 "Top 5's".  How much higher will Retherford, Nolf, Joseph, Hall and Nickal finish as a collective vs. NaTo, BoJo, Martin, Moore and Nickal?  In the end, the bonus difference may end up being the difference, but the true deciding factor will come down to how these respective 5's finish.

I like where you are went with this, the team race will be interesting this year.  One more point.  Bonus points aren't everything -- In a head to head to head match up Nickal and Martin is a tossup.  In fact Martin is ahead in the series.

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I can't believe anyone would, after so many years of finding out this doesn't work, argue that some other (fill in the blank) team is going to somehow make the bonus point leap to close the gap on Sanderson's Penn State squad. 

 

I'll believe it when it eventually happens.

Reading comprehension?  Did I ever say tOSU would close the gap bonus wise?  In fact, I SPECIFICALLY said that the bonus pt. difference may inevitably end up being the point difference between them and PSU.  What I DID say was that tOSU is also decent at scoring bonus and the gap won't be monumental and because of that the true deciding factor will come down to how each team's "Top 5" place.

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Reading comprehension?  Did I ever say tOSU would close the gap bonus wise?  In fact, I SPECIFICALLY said that the bonus pt. difference may inevitably end up being the point difference between them and PSU.  What I DID say was that tOSU is also decent at scoring bonus and the gap won't be monumental and because of that the true deciding factor will come down to how each team's "Top 5" place.

 

 

 

MSU, you still went down that old bonus point road and how this year it could be/should be/might be different. The point I am making is that people say this every year, and every year PSU drums the opposition into the ground bonus points wise. 

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MSU, you still went down that old bonus point road and how this year it could be/should be/might be different. The point I am making is that people say this every year, and every year PSU drums the opposition into the ground bonus points wise. 

Completely inaccurate.  I literally GAVE PSU the SAME bonus pt. total as last season. L I T E R A L L Y.  The point was that tOSU ALSO does well with bonus.  If you want to push your agenda, don't push it off of my post...............

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How about this to even further prove my fricking point:

 

Last year's bonus pt. totals at NCAA's by all likely starters(including transfers) for both teams

 

tOSU: 2,0,DNW,1,5,1.5,1,3.5,5,4=23

 

PSU: DNW,2,DNW,8,7,3,2.5,7.5,2,0=32

 

That literally falls in line with what I said.....................

Edited by MSU158

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MSU158, you also literally just said the following-

 

Put it this way.  Assume that Nickal, Retherford and Nolf score 22.5 bonus again this year.  That will be very hard to repeat, but I will still give it to them.  Then take Snyder, Moore and NaTo.  Let's be conservative and say they score 14 bonus.  Is that 8.5 difference enough to cover the team score difference between the remaining 7?  I don't think so.  Hall and Joseph most likely wash with BoJo and Martin.  Then you have Micah, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna and Campbell vs. 125?, Keener, Lee?, McCutcheon and Nevills.  Do you honestly see that PSU squad staying within 8.5?

 

so are you calling a Buckeye title?

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Completely inaccurate.  I literally GAVE PSU the SAME bonus pt. total as last season. L I T E R A L L Y.  The point was that tOSU ALSO does well with bonus.  If you want to push your agenda, don't push it off of my post...............

 

 

No agenda at all, MSU. Just pointing out how every year people get to the fork in this road and take the wrong path. Old habits die hard, I see. 

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How about this to even further prove my fricking point:

 

Last year's bonus pt. totals at NCAA's by all likely starters(including transfers) for both teams

 

tOSU: 2,0,DNW,1,5,1.5,1,3.5,5,4=23

 

PSU: DNW,2,DNW,8,7,3,2.5,7.5,2,0=32

 

That literally falls in line with what I said.....................

 

 

But you also said that what you wrote for PSU is a str etch and what you gave OSU is conservative. You are doing what you always do, you make the case against PSU, throw in a casual disclaimer, and then, when challenged, claim to be misunderstood. Old habits die hard.

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Damn, reading comprehension is NOT your specialty.  Did I ever use the word stretch?   I said 22.5 for those 3 will be very hard to replicate.  You know why?  Because the most you can flipping score is 30 and that is with 15 fricking pins.  averaging 7.5 per guy is ridiculously hard to do.  And guess what?  I STILL gave it to them.  Honestly.  That is like having 3 guys hit 2 or more home runs in the same game and then picking them to do it again.  It is THAT hard.

 

As far as NaTo, Moore and Snyder goes, do you honestly think 14 is high end?  NaTo averages 4 at 125.  Moore scored 5 last season and 197 thins out even more.  Snyder is an absolute monster and I don't seen anyone but Coon not giving up bonus.

 

And STILL IN GIANT LETTERS:  I PICKED PSU to SCORE MORE bonus.

 

There is no casual disclaimer.  I have continuously picked PSU to win and will continue to do so.  I am simply pointing out how close tOSU is and why.  Sheesh.........

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MSU158, you also literally just said the following-

 

Put it this way.  Assume that Nickal, Retherford and Nolf score 22.5 bonus again this year.  That will be very hard to repeat, but I will still give it to them.  Then take Snyder, Moore and NaTo.  Let's be conservative and say they score 14 bonus.  Is that 8.5 difference enough to cover the team score difference between the remaining 7?  I don't think so.  Hall and Joseph most likely wash with BoJo and Martin.  Then you have Micah, Pletcher, Hayes, McKenna and Campbell vs. 125?, Keener, Lee?, McCutcheon and Nevills.  Do you honestly see that PSU squad staying within 8.5?

 

so are you calling a Buckeye title?

I am well aware of what I wrote.  What I was saying there is that the bonus differential between the top 5 would not be enough to make PSU win if the top 5 finishers of both teams wash out.  Meaning their placements points end up being the same.  What IS going to win it for PSU is their top 5 OUTPLACING tOSU's top 5.

 

If that doesn't make sense, I am done trying to reach you..................

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tbar,

 

How about this.  When we get to NCAA's, if NaTo is at 125, I will take Snyder, Moore and NaTo to score 14 or more bonus.  You have to take Retherford, Nolf and Nickal to score 22.5 or more.  Whomever wins, gets to choose a topic that the other can't post on for a year.  Say anything PSU related?  If I am that wrong, please accept this wager!

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